NWS Key West - Wilma Interview

[jasons2k]

In today's Key West paper:

Jon Rizzo at the National Weather Service office in Key West provided the following answers to questions about Hurricane Wilma. Rizzo is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist.

Question: Why did the storm surge from Hurricane Wilma hit the Middle Keys after the winds had died down?

Answer: We actually had two surge events. There was a surge from the Atlantic side during the night. It was more pronounced in the Lower Keys and Key West. And then we had the gulfside surge later.

The storm surge is based on the winds, but not necessarily the winds of the location where you are. Wind direction is also extremely important. Water will move in the same direction the wind is blowing. When the storm winds were coming from the south, the water piled up on the Atlantic side of the islands and pushed the water out of Florida Bay. When the winds reversed, and we saw the backside of the storm, the north winds pushed the water back into Florida Bay. The surge is attributed not only to the pushing winds, but also water seeking its natural level. The water was filling the bay and being pushed into the bay by winds — so part of it is normal, part of it was the surge itself.

Q: During the early part of the storm, did the Bay empty of water?

A: Yes. It was quite noticeable.

Q: Did the surge affect Key West at the same time it did the Upper Keys?

A: It happened in a progression of time. The hurricane was hitting Marco Island about the same time as the storm surge happened in Key West... a little after sunrise. In Marathon, it was the late morning. In the Upper Keys, on the north side of Key Largo, they saw the storm surge rise at about noon, or early afternoon. By 3 or 4 p.m., all the water was going down and U.S. 1 was above the water line again.

Q: What did the storm surge look like as it approached land?

A: Legend has it that storm surge looks like a tidal wave, but that is not true. It looks like a dome of water with waves on top. It's a rapid rise in water. And the water gets deeper very quickly — too fast to get possessions out of harm's way. The waves on top of the water were a result of the remaining winds.

Q: Did Hurricane Wilma have any surprises for the Weather Service?

A: Not really. We thought it would re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico waters and it did. At the Weather office in Key West, we were relieved that it made landfall in Cancun. Had it stayed east of the Yucatan, we would have been dealing with an extremely powerful hurricane hitting the Keys. It would have been a worst-case scenario.

The thing to remember about hurricanes is that they are like snowflakes. They have different dimensions, and different portions of the storm might have a different effect in the Keys. When we make direct comparisons between storms, like Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Donna, we're opening ourselves up for a lot of mistakes.

— Sara Matthis