You may see at the radar loop a weak turning South of Puerto Rico.That is a very weak surface low embedded with a surface trough in the area but nothing that may turn into something cyclonic but after seeing how this 2005 season has been you never know what will occur.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS S TO
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N66W. LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TO THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
The above the TPC 7 AM EST discussion.
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241021
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
621 AM AST THU NOV 24 2005
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY. THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. AT THE MOMENT... ONE AREA OF
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED BETWEEN ST CROIX...VIEQUES AND THE
EASTERN PORTION OF PR. THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED RAINFALL FROM RADAR
IS AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
VIEQUES AND ST CROIX. THE FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL NOSING INTO OUR
AREA...BUT AS THE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD MOVES
EASTWARD IT WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO CARRY MOISTURE INTO OUR
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE QUITE A FEW MID TO HIGH
LOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE WEST. FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS A
LITTLE TRICKY. A COUPLE OF FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO
THE SURFACE LOW HAVE HELPED TO PRODUCED QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ST CROIX AND VIEUQES AND THEN TO THE
EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. I THINK THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO
RICO TO PRODUCE AN OVERALL CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...BUT WITHOUT THIS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...IT SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. THEREFORE CONSIDERING WE
JUST HAD A DRY SPELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND...THERE SHOULD ONLY
BE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.
The above is the AFD from San Juan NWS.
