Bill Forming Soon?

[wxman57]

<b>But not where you think!</b> I now believe that disturbance near the Yucatan is the "decoy". Wind shear remains very high over the Yucatan to Florida, and there are no signs that shear is diminshing as the GFS had been advertising by now. It's beginning to look like this disturbance will be just a rain maker for Florida and maybe GA and Carolinas (but probably just Florida).

All eyes should be shifting east of the Caribbean to the disturbance around 10N/36W. Note that the NHC is putting out test messages on this system that are titled "Tropical Depression Test Message". They usually don't use the term Tropical Depression unless they' notice a circulation already there (which I can see for myself). I think this system may have a better shot at developing (30-40%) than the sheared wave over the Yucatan, regardless of what the models are developing there.

As for its movement, the GFS has a bit of a problem initializing it at the right spot, but it generally shows a weakening ridge to the north of the system beyond 96 hours. This may allow for a WNW to NW track beyind 72 hours, possibly passing north of the Caribbean and heading out to sea. But the GFS may be too slow with its forward speed, so it could well track farther west before recurving.

[cycloneye]

Yes that wave looks well defined in it's structure although convection is at this time limited due to dry air in the area but shear is minimal ahead of it so maybe if it gets convection to wrap around that low pressure we can see TD#3 from 93L Invest.

[ColdFront77]

There is upper level wind shear and/or it is expected to increase to the northwest of the
system... over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida?

[wxman57]

20kts wind shear right in the wave's path. Not good for development. The wave east of the Caribbean looked a lot more likely to develop late this afternoon. However, the wave near 10N/36W is a bit lacking in convection tonight. IR satellite isn't a good tool for seeing any developing low-level circulation, though.

[jabber]

The deep Atlantic wave need some thunderstorms.... looking pretty haggered right now

[ColdFront77]

Yes, 20 knot wind shear right in the wave's path isn't good for development, but we do not see yellows and
oranges north and west of this area and the shear as of late is still decreasing.

(I was trying to edit my post as soon as possible, two or three times; I indicated too much, my apologizes for things like this happening.)