The Space Weather effect upon Epsilon

[Jim Hughes]

This season has been historic so maybe a December hurricane should be of no surprise but nobody was calling for Epsilon to become a Cat 1 yesterday. At least not the NHC or TWC etc..

Epsilon has held together fairly well the past few days and today's Cat 1 classification is of no surprise to me. Especially since I knew what kind of space weather activity was occurring.

We have seen the two strongest x-ray flares (M6.5 & M7.8/1N) since September 19th occur over night at 2/0252 and 2/1012z respectively.

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today.html

Now we did see another cluster of M-Class flares (Five of them) occur between 11/13-18th. These were the only other M-Class (Which are second strongest after X-class) to occur since September 19th.

(BTW I do not think that it was a coincidence that we also saw two tropical systems form between 11/14-18th also.

You can see past x-ray activity by clicking on the "Plots of Solar-Geophysical Data" under Older Space Weather Data at the above URL.

These individual three day plots will give you an idea about the recent increase. We were flat lining for quite a while there and the sun would have been almost dead if this was an EKG.

In my "Stratosphere, Ozone and how this effects the AMO cycle" last month I spoke about some energetic particles and I gave out exact reading levels. These were levels that I deemed important after observing many different things over the years.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570

The sun started to have an eruptional increase a few days ago. A handful of C-Class flares occurred and so did one M-Class flare. These eruptions caused an increase in one of the electron flux levels that I had previously written about.

If you take a look at the November EPAM readings from ACE2 you will see that a sharp spike occurred on 11/29/17z. The differential flux readings that I am referring to can be seen at the URL below under this section

-------Electron ----------
38-53

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ac ... pam_1h.txt

Here is December's

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ac ... pam_1h.txt


All EPAM data for the past year can be gotten here.

http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace2.html

The peak reading on the 29th ( which was 7.71e+03 ) was the highest reading since 9/20. Now the peak value dropped much quicker than some other times this summer but it has stayed above the 0.00e+03 level 99 % of the time during the last few days. This is the reading level that I wrote about.

Another important electron level was also around prior to Epsilon's formation and it was rather high. I am referring to the >2 MeV electron fluence level. You can see that at this URL below. These readings are the second column from the right.


http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/ ... Q4_DPD.txt

All DPD data since 1994 can be seen here under Daily Particle Indices.

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/indices ... dices.html


A reading greater than 0.0e+07 is important here. The crossing of this threshold seems to play havoc with the earth's electrical environment. It seems to either enhance or diminish certain regions. Almost like a short circuit occurs.

This rise in electrons is related to a prior disturbed magnetic field. This rise or elevated state, can continue for quite some time, until another minor disturbance makes it go below the 0.0e+07 threshold.

Many people might recall me talking about how important it is for the magnetic field of the earth to relax after a geomagnetic storm. This relaxation will cause a rise in the > 2 MeV if we have witnessed a disturbed magnetic field. ( There are other variables to consider for exact increases) .

This is why the 500 km/sec solar wind theory of mine seems to show a relationship with tropical enhancement in my opinion. You will almost always see a decrease below the 0.0e+07 level when you see a sharp increase in solar winds. Especially above the 600 km/sec solar wind speed level.

Strong solar wind shocks, which are related to coronal mass ejections (CME's) will strongly lower the electron levels by greatly disturbing the earth's magnetic field but the field will eventually relax after the event subsides and the electron levels will rapidly rise.

A coronal windstream, which we have been under the influence of the past few days, is a different story though. It can bring along extremely high solar wind speeds but the density level is much lower. So this makes it possible to see the electron levels rise considerably even when the solar wind speed is above the 500 km/sec level. This also diminishes the chances of any kind of forbush decrease. (Decrease in GCR"s, Galtic Cosmic rays)


(The best layman's explanation for the coronal hole wind anomaly compared to CME's would be a heating duct system. You reduce the lines in heating and air conditioning ducts to increase pressure so that it can get the heated air throughout your house. The shape of the coronal hole is much like a megaphone within the sun's interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). It's widest part is far way from the sun. So the downwind pressure is very low. Hence less density....which means less compression on the earth's magnetic field.)

The morphology of the IMF throughout the solar cycle changes and this has a role in how often certain particle readings reach certain levels. These parameters also effect how the earth's receives this energy. This is where I believe the science community has made some mistakes. They do not understand that the same type of space weather, can effect the earth differently, during different times of the solar cycle.

You will hardly ever see a rise in > 2 MeV electron levels during the rise to solar maximum while we are under the influence of a high speed coronal windstream.

( I will not go into the reasoning for this but it deals with the waves in the IMF in the early part of the sunspot cycle. )

So during the prior 24 hours we saw increased x-ray flares. We also saw an increase in both the important electron readings that I have spoken about and we are starting to see a rise in the GCR levels also. ( The % of GCR's in regards to whether it is above or below 100 % can be seen at the URL I gave for Daily Particle Indices ( > 2 MeV readings). It is the last column alll the way to the right.

In my opinion the best chance for tropical enhancement is when all three come together. We saw this happen quite frequently during the 2005 hurricane season and we all know what happened this year. I believe space weather has effected the activity level this year and Epsilon is just another system showing the relationship.



Jim

[chris_fit]

Very Very Interesting. Nice Report!

[Jim Hughes]

Very Very Interesting. Nice Report!

Thanks chris_fit. I am just trying to keep people updated on space weather changes and how this seems to coincide with tropical changes. Or enhancements that were not forecasted during the prior 24 hours or so.

Some of the effects seem to be delayed of course but if you watch space weather closely you can see that the tropics seem to heat up during or around the time we see space weather increases.




Jim

[Weatherfreak14]

yeah, very interesting.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Space weather looks to be a very important factor in storm
formation.

Until your space weather explanations I thought AMO and
Global Warming were the only major factors...but now I see that
Space weather is also a major factor.

I know it's too early to ask...but since I live very close to
sea level and I have gotten nerve-wracked the past
2 years with seeing storms do so much damage and get so
intense...I'll ask...
Jim, how does the space weather and flare outlook look for 2006?
(At least the first half of 2006 hurricane season)...Could it be
similar in severity to 2005?

[TheEuropean]

Hi, I don't think that space weather is an important factor in storm
formation. All M-Class-Flares today and before were short lived and I don't see any effect.

[Jim Hughes]

Hi, I don't think that space weather is an important factor in storm
formation. All M-Class-Flares today and before were short lived and I don't see any effect.

Well the flare's x-ray size is not the most important variable here much like the solar constant has never been either. And those who have looked at this connection have continually came up empty.

If you read the discussion carefully you will notice that I talked about previous things from the prior few days. The peak in the higher energetic particles were actually related to a weaker flare, x-ray wise. You should not confuse x-ray readings with what may accompany or follow the flare. These are entirely different subject matters.

The other reading is related to the after effects of a disturbed magnetic field. Once again the x-ray level of today's flaring is not important to these readings.


Jim

[WindRunner]

It's always amazing to see the data you pull together that signifies a burst of tropical activity. The fact that it's such a little-known aspect of the weather is really the most surprising part, and I wish there was something that could be done to get more people to see these correlations. You are certainly doing your part, Jim, and let me thank you once again for another facinating read!

[TheEuropean]

Well the flare's x-ray size is not the most important variable here much like the solar constant has never been either. And those who have looked at this connection have continually came up empty.

If you read the discussion carefully you will notice that I talked about previous things from the prior few days. The peak in the higher energetic particles were actually related to a weaker flare, x-ray wise. You should not confuse x-ray readings with what may accompany or follow the flare. These are entirely different subject matters.

The other reading is related to the after effects of a disturbed magnetic field. Once again the x-ray level of today's flaring is not important to these readings.

Jim

Hi Jim, nothing new for me and I know what you mean. But IMO there are no effects from solar flares on tropical formation on earth.

[Jim Hughes]

Space weather looks to be a very important factor in storm
formation.

Until your space weather explanations I thought AMO and
Global Warming were the only major factors...but now I see that
Space weather is also a major factor.

I know it's too early to ask...but since I live very close to
sea level and I have gotten nerve-wracked the past
2 years with seeing storms do so much damage and get so
intense...I'll ask...
Jim, how does the space weather and flare outlook look for 2006?
(At least the first half of 2006 hurricane season)...Could it be
similar in severity to 2005?

That is a very hard call to make at this point of time when you consider how far we will be away from solar maximum next year. (Six years)

None of the experts were even remotely calling for the heightened activity level that we have seen during 2005. Things were much quieter during the past couple of cycles when we reached the five year mark after solar maximum. (This is where we are now.)

You may recall that I have previously spoken about my theory regarding the strength of the solar poles and how this is currently causing this increased activity level.

They are much weaker at this stage and they are very close in strength so this actually gives us something to carefully watch . This is why I called for an upcoming increase in my November 16th discussion . I can assure you that this type of cyclical activity will continue on and off until they reach a certain strength level.

These flaring/eruptions will have an effect upon storms/Northeaster this winter if this continues. If you look at the solar wind (ACE2 EPAM) URL's above for January 2005 you will see how much of a spike we had around the time of the Northeaster the pounded the NE on the 23rd-24th.

I felt comfortable about an upcoming space weather increase around this time frame and that was why I forecasted the snowstorm for the Midatlantic /NE btween January 22nd-24th , on January 5th 2005. The rest is history.

Think about what the forecast is for next week? Or at least from what I have heard through word of mouth. A possible snowstorm for parts of the NE .

In my AMO discussion I gave a forecast towards the end under

Solar Forecast:

I forecasted an increase and I said that we would be seeing a magnetically complexed sunspot group, in the southern hemisphere of the sun, crossing the central meridian around December 6th.

It looks like it will be the 4th so I was slightly off. But this region has produced major flares and this will most likely continue.

I have told many people for years in the solar community. That you can forecast solar events by listening to what the weather models or forecasters are calling for. If a storm is supposed to form along the east coast next week then I can assure you that we have not seen the end of Region 826's flaring/eruptions. The best or strongest may still be ahead.


Jim

[Jim Hughes]

Well the flare's x-ray size is not the most important variable here much like the solar constant has never been either. And those who have looked at this connection have continually came up empty.

If you read the discussion carefully you will notice that I talked about previous things from the prior few days. The peak in the higher energetic particles were actually related to a weaker flare, x-ray wise. You should not confuse x-ray readings with what may accompany or follow the flare. These are entirely different subject matters.

The other reading is related to the after effects of a disturbed magnetic field. Once again the x-ray level of today's flaring is not important to these readings.

Jim

Hi Jim, nothing new for me and I know what you mean. But IMO there are no effects from solar flares on tropical formation on earth.

How and where have you observed? Or for how long? Most of my discussions have dealt with the Atlantic Basin. Magnetic field vector related probably. Are you familiar with Baranyi's research regarding magnetic field vectors and how only certain areas get effected and not others?.... Corpuscular radiation.

If you read some of the discussions over in the Global Weather Forum you may find several papers that give credence to many things that I talk about.

I can assure you that no research has ever been done on the things I am talking about. I know this because I have talked to people on both sides of the fence. So you have every right to have an opinion but that is all it is and to just say that this can not be important is an unsubstantiated claim.

I have been using this methodology for almost ten years now and I know very well that these variables matter when it comes to certain weather/climate events.



Jim

[brunota2003]

I can see where this all fits in, you should start a site that explains this, and maybe do a little research on it, who knows, maybe you, Jim, could find a link that could make forecasting a little easier...I think you could make a go at it... Just make sure you have a page where its "dumbed" down for people like me... Good job Jim...

[brunota2003]

Oh, to interupt you guyses little "arguement" one more time, I am just curious, since you, Jim, have been making these forecasts for a while now, I see they arefairly accurate, I amjust curious how accurate are they???

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Space weather looks to be a very important factor in storm
formation.

Until your space weather explanations I thought AMO and
Global Warming were the only major factors...but now I see that
Space weather is also a major factor.

I know it's too early to ask...but since I live very close to
sea level and I have gotten nerve-wracked the past
2 years with seeing storms do so much damage and get so
intense...I'll ask...
Jim, how does the space weather and flare outlook look for 2006?
(At least the first half of 2006 hurricane season)...Could it be
similar in severity to 2005?

That is a very hard call to make at this point of time when you consider how far we will be away from solar maximum next year. (Six years)

None of the experts were even remotely calling for the heightened activity level that we have seen during 2005. Things were much quieter during the past couple of cycles when we reached the five year mark after solar maximum. (This is where we are now.)

You may recall that I have previously spoken about my theory regarding the strength of the solar poles and how this is currently causing this increased activity level.

They are much weaker at this stage and they are very close in strength so this actually gives us something to carefully watch . This is why I called for an upcoming increase in my November 16th discussion . I can assure you that this type of cyclical activity will continue on and off until they reach a certain strength level.

These flaring/eruptions will have an effect upon storms/Northeaster this winter if this continues. If you look at the solar wind (ACE2 EPAM) URL's above for January 2005 you will see how much of a spike we had around the time of the Northeaster the pounded the NE on the 23rd-24th.

I felt comfortable about an upcoming space weather increase around this time frame and that was why I forecasted the snowstorm for the Midatlantic /NE btween January 22nd-24th , on January 5th 2005. The rest is history.

Think about what the forecast is for next week? Or at least from what I have heard through word of mouth. A possible snowstorm for parts of the NE .

In my AMO discussion I gave a forecast towards the end under

Solar Forecast:

I forecasted an increase and I said that we would be seeing a magnetically complexed sunspot group, in the southern hemisphere of the sun, crossing the central meridian around December 6th.

It looks like it will be the 4th so I was slightly off. But this region has produced major flares and this will most likely continue.

I have told many people for years in the solar community. That you can forecast solar events by listening to what the weather models or forecasters are calling for. If a storm is supposed to form along the east coast next week then I can assure you that we have not seen the end of Region 826's flaring/eruptions. The best or strongest may still be ahead.


Jim

Good points about how it's too early... I'll have to be patient for the forecast

But yes I think there is a good set up for a strong east coast
storm next week...the flaring may be a good early indicator
of what strength it may have....

[Jim Hughes]

Oh, to interupt you guyses little "arguement" one more time, I am just curious, since you, Jim, have been making these forecasts for a while now, I see they arefairly accurate, I amjust curious how accurate are they???

Are you talking about space weather forecasts or weather/climate?



Jim

[brunota2003]

Oh, to interupt you guyses little "arguement" one more time, I am just curious, since you, Jim, have been making these forecasts for a while now, I see they are fairly accurate, I am just curious how accurate are they???

Are you talking about space weather forecasts or weather/climate?



Jim

i guess the weather ones, the ones like you were talking about above, when you said you predicted a major winter storm by the solar flare things, and a couple weeks later it occured...

[brunota2003]

this one:

They are much weaker at this stage and they are very close in strength so this actually gives us something to carefully watch . This is why I called for an upcoming increase in my November 16th discussion . I can assure you that this type of cyclical activity will continue on and off until they reach a certain strength level.

These flaring/eruptions will have an effect upon storms/Northeaster this winter if this continues. If you look at the solar wind (ACE2 EPAM) URL's above for January 2005 you will see how much of a spike we had around the time of the Northeaster the pounded the NE on the 23rd-24th.

I felt comfortable about an upcoming space weather increase around this time frame and that was why I forecasted the snowstorm for the Midatlantic /NE btween January 22nd-24th , on January 5th 2005. The rest is history.

[Jim Hughes]

this one:

They are much weaker at this stage and they are very close in strength so this actually gives us something to carefully watch . This is why I called for an upcoming increase in my November 16th discussion . I can assure you that this type of cyclical activity will continue on and off until they reach a certain strength level.

These flaring/eruptions will have an effect upon storms/Northeaster this winter if this continues. If you look at the solar wind (ACE2 EPAM) URL's above for January 2005 you will see how much of a spike we had around the time of the Northeaster the pounded the NE on the 23rd-24th.

I felt comfortable about an upcoming space weather increase around this time frame and that was why I forecasted the snowstorm for the Midatlantic /NE btween January 22nd-24th , on January 5th 2005. The rest is history.

I have every e-mail forecast/discussion that I have ever sent out since early 1996 on the hard drive of my computers. But I have never gone back over them nor do I keep a running record of the forecasts that I have made. I just never bothered to worry about them since I am always busy monitoring and learning.

You also must consider that I was always told by some local meteorologists over the past 8-10 years that they were personally keeping track of them for future evaluations and when I confronted them about a statistical analysis they would always say that they were either busy or they had forgotten or misplaced some of my forecasts.

I could be wrong but I wonder how many OCM's or people within this forum could tell you their own accuracy rating over the years? I'll grant you that one is a proven science while the other is not, as of yet , but I feel like I have proven that I am a capable forecaster over the years.
Most of my early forecasts dealt with long term forecasts anyway. Like wet years , droughts, El Nino, hurricane season, etc...

I never really delved into some of these relationships until the past 3-5 years. As for my snowstorm forecast last January. I have talked about it before in this forum. It was read over the air waves down in Washington DC on January 5th or 6th. It got some local hype leading up to the storm and then some post hype in a local newspaper up here in West Virginia.

I have some news connections so my forecasts are followed when I e-mail a discussion out. But think about this. How complicated do you think they are for a reporter/editor /publisher if they are complicated to you.

You at least know half of the story..weather wise. They follow neither most of the times. So they only know if it comes true or not but they do not understand all of the details or the feedbacks involved.


Jim

[Downdraft]

Jim,
I pay close attention to your forecasts since I've found them extremely reliable especially when your forecasting changes in tropcial cyclone intensity. In fact, this year I've been amazed how accurate some of your intensity calls have been. Keep up the great work!

[Derek Ortt]

Just one question,

how come none of this work has been presented at either a conference or in a peer reviewed journal?