Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 02/2229 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD 01F [1007HPA] CENTRE NEAR 17.5S 161.5W AT
022100UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT/GOES10 IR/VIS. SST ABOUT 29C.
SYSTEM LACKS CENTRAL CONVECTION AND MAJOR CLOUD IS DISPLACED EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE CENTRE. TD 01F LIES UNDER A 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND FLOW AT
250HPA AND IS MOVING INTO INCREASED SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WITHOUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
SW Pacific: TD 02F
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Another one:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 03/2355 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD 02F [1003HPA] CENTRE NEAR 11S 173E AT
032100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS. SST
AROUND 29C.
SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANISED AT THIS STAGE WITH MAJOR CONVECTION
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF LLCC. 02F LIES IN A GOOD
DIFFLUENT REGION SOUTH OF UPPER 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS. CIMMS INDICATES
MODERATE SHEAR NEAR SYSTEM BUT A DECREASING TENDENCY SOUTH OF 02F.
GLOBAL MODELS [GFS] MOVES THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 03/2355 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD 02F [1003HPA] CENTRE NEAR 11S 173E AT
032100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS. SST
AROUND 29C.
SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANISED AT THIS STAGE WITH MAJOR CONVECTION
DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF LLCC. 02F LIES IN A GOOD
DIFFLUENT REGION SOUTH OF UPPER 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS. CIMMS INDICATES
MODERATE SHEAR NEAR SYSTEM BUT A DECREASING TENDENCY SOUTH OF 02F.
GLOBAL MODELS [GFS] MOVES THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 04/2223 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1002HPA] CENTRE NEAR 12.5S 171.3E AT
042100UTC MOVING SOUTH 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/VISHR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHEREAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29-30C.
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE AT THIS STAGE ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION
REMAINS DETACHED FROM CENTRE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUARDRANTS. 02F REMAINS IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS. AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BECOME
EVIDENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL SURGES ARE UNLIKELY TO INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS RECEDED FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND IS NOT LIKELY TO
CAUSE ANY APPRECIABLE SURGE. 02F IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO INCREASED
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS [GFS, UK, ECMWF] MOVE
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 04/2223 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1002HPA] CENTRE NEAR 12.5S 171.3E AT
042100UTC MOVING SOUTH 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/VISHR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHEREAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29-30C.
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE AT THIS STAGE ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION
REMAINS DETACHED FROM CENTRE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUARDRANTS. 02F REMAINS IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS. AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BECOME
EVIDENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL SURGES ARE UNLIKELY TO INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS RECEDED FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND IS NOT LIKELY TO
CAUSE ANY APPRECIABLE SURGE. 02F IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO INCREASED
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS [GFS, UK, ECMWF] MOVE
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
0 likes
-
Coredesat
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Pressure up 3hPa.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 05/1015 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1005HPA] CENTRE NEAR 12S 169E AT 050900UTC
MOVING SOUTH 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VISHR WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHEREAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29-30C.
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE AT THIS STAGE ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION
REMAINS DETACHED FROM CENTRE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUARDRANTS. 02F REMAINS IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS. AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BECOME
EVIDENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL SURGES ARE UNLIKELY TO INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS RECEDED FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND IS NOT LIKELY TO
CAUSE ANY APPRECIABLE SURGE. 02F IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO INCREASED
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS [GFS, UK, ECMWF] MOVE
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 05/1015 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1005HPA] CENTRE NEAR 12S 169E AT 050900UTC
MOVING SOUTH 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VISHR WITH
ANIMATION AND PERIPHEREAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29-30C.
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE AT THIS STAGE ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION
REMAINS DETACHED FROM CENTRE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN QUARDRANTS. 02F REMAINS IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS. AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS BECOME
EVIDENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW
LEVEL SURGES ARE UNLIKELY TO INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS RECEDED FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND IS NOT LIKELY TO
CAUSE ANY APPRECIABLE SURGE. 02F IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO INCREASED
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS [GFS, UK, ECMWF] MOVE
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 05/2251 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1003HPA] CENTRE NEAR 12.5S 170.5E AT
052100UTC MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/VISHR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHEREAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SST AROUND 29-30C.
CONVECTION STILL REMAINS DISORGANISED BUT A CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE CLOUD STRUCTURE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
QUARDRANTS. 02F REMAINS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
250 HPA RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EVIDENT DUE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHSOUTHEAST EXPOSING IT TO
INCREASED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUPRESSED.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 05/2251 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1003HPA] CENTRE NEAR 12.5S 170.5E AT
052100UTC MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/VISHR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHEREAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SST AROUND 29-30C.
CONVECTION STILL REMAINS DISORGANISED BUT A CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE CLOUD STRUCTURE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
QUARDRANTS. 02F REMAINS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
250 HPA RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EVIDENT DUE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHSOUTHEAST EXPOSING IT TO
INCREASED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUPRESSED.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 06/0944 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1004HPA] CENTRE NEAR 13S 169E AT 050600UTC
MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VISHR
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHEREAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND
29-30C.
CONVECTION STILL REMAINS DISORGANISED BUT A CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE CLOUD STRUCTURE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
QUARDRANTS. 02F REMAINS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
250 HPA RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EVIDENT DUE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHSOUTHEAST EXPOSING IT TO
INCREASED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUPRESSED.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 06/0944 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1004HPA] CENTRE NEAR 13S 169E AT 050600UTC
MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VISHR
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHEREAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND
29-30C.
CONVECTION STILL REMAINS DISORGANISED BUT A CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN
THE CLOUD STRUCTURE AND IS ACTIVE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
QUARDRANTS. 02F REMAINS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
250 HPA RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EVIDENT DUE TO AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE SOUTHSOUTHEAST EXPOSING IT TO
INCREASED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO
BE SUPRESSED.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
0 likes
-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Final advisory:
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 06/2327 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1006HPA] CENTRE NEAR 14S 170E AT 062100UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHEREAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29-30C.
CONVECTION STILL REMAINS DISORGANISED. 02F LIES UNDER UPPER [250 HPA]
TROUGH AXIS. OUTLOW NOW BECOMING RESTRICTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES, EXPOSING 02F TO STRONG WESTERLIES. SHEAR HAS NOW INCREASED TO
30 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM CENTRE. 02F IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS
IT STEERS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY ON THIS SYSTEM.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 06/2327 UTC 2005 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1006HPA] CENTRE NEAR 14S 170E AT 062100UTC
SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS WITH ANIMATION AND
PERIPHEREAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29-30C.
CONVECTION STILL REMAINS DISORGANISED. 02F LIES UNDER UPPER [250 HPA]
TROUGH AXIS. OUTLOW NOW BECOMING RESTRICTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSES, EXPOSING 02F TO STRONG WESTERLIES. SHEAR HAS NOW INCREASED TO
30 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM CENTRE. 02F IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS
IT STEERS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY ON THIS SYSTEM.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Steve H. and 77 guests