Downright Depressing!

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azsnowman
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Downright Depressing!

#1 Postby azsnowman » Wed Dec 07, 2005 2:37 pm

Here we are 7 December and it's like late April early May here and no moisture what so ever on the horizon. I talked with the law enforcement officer for the USDA Apache Sitgraves National Forest yesterday regarding a crime he needed investigated. During the conversation the topic of weather came up and this is REALLY downright SCARY......the Wildland Firefighters are being activated this coming 1 Feb instead of the normal start date of 1 May :cry: We've had 3 small wildfires already, no one can find any records of a wildland fire season starting in DECEMBER. As I stated in another thread, ALL the evergreens are "sapping up"....sending SAP to the needles to prevent any further loss of moisture...this is the reason for the EARLY wildfire season, as you know, sap is VERY volitale and ONE SPARK can send the fire into the Crowns of the trees and when THAT happens............................

Utter a prayer for us would ya? We REALLY need the prayers right now, with the long range outlooks looking GRIM, this COULD be the END of the White Mountains in Arizona as we know them here in about a month!

Dennis
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#2 Postby azsnowman » Wed Dec 07, 2005 2:39 pm

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THE GRIDS/ZONES...AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

Dennis :cry:
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#3 Postby Aslkahuna » Wed Dec 07, 2005 4:19 pm

Looking more and more like the 1999-2000 winter down here during which we got a whole 0.53 in of rain for the ENTIRE winter.

Steve
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#4 Postby f5 » Wed Dec 07, 2005 4:37 pm

its hard to believe a year ago you were dealing with too much snow but this year you can't seem to buy a flake.its just nature's way of balenceing out her surplus
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#5 Postby Aslkahuna » Wed Dec 07, 2005 9:18 pm

What surplus? We've been behind the power almost continuously since 1996 as far as winter precipitation is concerned with last year one of two decent winters in the past 9 winters.

Steve
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#6 Postby azsnowman » Thu Dec 08, 2005 2:42 pm

f5 wrote:its hard to believe a year ago you were dealing with too much snow but this year you can't seem to buy a flake.its just nature's way of balenceing out her surplus


As Steve said, "SURPLUS, WHAT SURPLUS?" Last years snowpack was normal..........this is CRAZY to say the least!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AS SUCH...WE CAN ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS RATHER CHAOTIC...BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE RATHER BENIGN SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A BRIEF TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR AROUND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN SUMMARY...KEEPING MAJORITY OF 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.
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#7 Postby azsnowman » Thu Dec 08, 2005 2:45 pm

This pretty much sums it up......... check out the third sentence :cry:

http://www.azcentral.com

Valley approaches sixth-longest dry spell on record

Michael Clancy
The Arizona Republic
Dec. 8, 2005 12:00 AM

At times last winter, Phoenix got so much rain that washes flooded, reservoirs filled and fears of a long-term drought dried up.

But nine mostly parched months later, the Phoenix area has fallen behind the year-to-date average.

It hasn't rained in the Valley for more than seven weeks, and no storms are on the horizon before Christmas or the end of the year. advertisement




The last measurable rainfall took place on Oct. 17, when 0.17 of an inch fell at the official monitoring station at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.

The year began with such promise. Almost 5 inches of rain fell in January and February. It looked like 2005 was on track to exceed the yearly average of slightly more than 8 inches.

But in the next nine months, only August, with a monsoon-driven 1.21 inches, surpassed the norm.

Not everything is bad news. Plenty of rain in other parts of the state, which has filled the Verde and Salt rivers regularly, has kept the Salt River reservoirs relatively full, limiting the impact of drought on the Phoenix area. And early snowfall in Colorado and Wyoming holds promise for filling up Lakes Mead and Powell. Both are about half-full now.

Southeast and central Arizona are currently the only parts of the state at risk for drought. The National Weather Service lists those areas as "likely" for drought development.

That area includes the Valley, where Wednesday marked the 51st consecutive day with no rain. If Phoenix reaches the end of the year without rain, it will be the sixth-longest dry spell in recorded history, according to data from Randy Cerveny, an Arizona State University climatologist.

Go three days into next year without rain, and the dry spell will reach the top five, with 78 straight days of no rain.

The all-time record dry spell ran for 91 days, from Jan. 6 to April 5, 1984.

Although rain in Phoenix does not greatly affect the city's water supply, which mainly comes from the reservoirs on the Salt and Colorado rivers, it does keep plants watered, holds dust down and washes pollution out of the air, a problem for the Phoenix area so far this season.

The silver lining, even if there are no dark clouds, is that the state's high country and Colorado River Valley have had a decent year of rain.

Flagstaff and Payson are 2½ inches above average, and Prescott is more than 3 inches above normal. Yuma and Parker also are more than 2 inches above average.

Likewise, Colorado and Wyoming have had good early snowfall, which will melt into the Colorado River.

Phoenix forecasters looking ahead to the end of the month are saying chances are slim for rain. Looking ahead, they predict a 50-50 chance for normal rainfall this winter, which starts in two weeks. That is an improvement from an earlier prediction of a dry winter.

Nancy Selover, assistant ASU climatologist, said a normally wet winter would bode well for the Salt River lakes, currently 82 percent full.

According to the monthly climate report prepared by state climatologist Andrew Ellis, most of the state has been above normal for rainfall all year, except for southeastern and east-central Arizona.

Those areas, including the Phoenix and Tucson areas, will continue to experience drought conditions, he said.

Kind of makes you want a tall glass of ice water.
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#8 Postby f5 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 2:50 pm

azsnowman wrote:
f5 wrote:its hard to believe a year ago you were dealing with too much snow but this year you can't seem to buy a flake.its just nature's way of balenceing out her surplus


As Steve said, "SURPLUS, WHAT SURPLUS?" Last years snowpack was normal..........this is CRAZY to say the least!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AS SUCH...WE CAN ANTICIPATE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS RATHER CHAOTIC...BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE RATHER BENIGN SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A BRIEF TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR AROUND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN SUMMARY...KEEPING MAJORITY OF 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.


i was talking about last year when California and the southwest had record snowfall while the pacific northwest was in the mist of a drought
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#9 Postby Aslkahuna » Thu Dec 08, 2005 3:59 pm

One wet winter a drought does not end.

Steve
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#10 Postby f5 » Thu Dec 08, 2005 5:04 pm

Texas is very dry they get most of their rain from storms that take the southern route.that hasn't happen they have been to far north.they didn't even get much rain dispite a record hurricane season.NWS Ft worth website is showing 10 to 15 inch rainfall deficits and thats bad news
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#11 Postby azskyman » Thu Dec 08, 2005 8:24 pm

Even though I am well above normal for the year with 12.77", it has now been since October 18th when the last rain fell. Normally I'd say watch what you wish for....but Dennis is right. Time for the jetstream to take a serious dip along the California coast and park over the Southwest for a couple weeks!
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#12 Postby Aslkahuna » Thu Dec 08, 2005 8:44 pm

What we need is a split flow pattern with active southern branch with the L/W trough axis along about 118-115W and a tropical tap. Then put a blocking ridge over about 80-85W with the positive height anomaly center around 40-45N and a strong undercutting storm track into the SE US and then out to sea-that would put the rain and snow where it would do the best good.

Steve
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#13 Postby azsnowman » Fri Dec 09, 2005 7:56 am

Break out the SNOW shovels!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Area Forecast For: The White Mountains
Issued: December 09, 2005 03:35:49 MST

Today: Partly cloudy. Light and variable winds. Highs 38 to 44 above 7000 feet...44 to 50 below 7000 feet.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Light and variable winds. Lows around 14 above 7000 feet...around 19 below 7000 feet.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Light and variable winds. Highs 42 to 48 above 7000 feet...48 to 54 below 7000 feet.

Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Light and variable winds. Lows around 16 above 7000 feet...around 20 below 7000 feet.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. A 10 percent chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Light and variable winds. Highs 41 to 47 above 7000 feet...around 49 below 7000 feet.

Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a 10 percent chance of rain and snow. Lows around 21 above 7000 feet...around 26 below 7000 feet.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers. Highs 40 to 46 above 7000 feet...around 48 below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation 10 percent.

I've got the snowblower ready, snowshovels dug out and now I'm HOLDING my breath :lol: I have pre dialed 911 on my cellphone just in case I have to hold my breath until NEXT winter (which according to the lastest I heard on the news this morning, "IS" going to be the case, "NO SNOW" for the entire winter!") I have never seen a winter without snow but as they say, "Anything is possible!" I mean, look at the hurricane season!!

Dennis :cry:
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#14 Postby TexasStooge » Fri Dec 09, 2005 7:59 am

You're right, it IS Depressing. :cry:
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#15 Postby azsnowman » Sat Dec 10, 2005 6:40 pm

I have OFFICALALLY written this winter OFF 8-) Today and the REST of the week is supposed to be WAY above normal temps etc. blah, blah, BLAH 8-) NO SNOW on the horizon what so EVER, the bees are BACK, the ANTS are out of their hills, I SWEAR I heard a hummingbird today, SKUNKS have come out of their nests, "Winter is OVER, SPRING has SPRUNG!" WoooHooooooooooooooooo!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 102142 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 245 PM MST SAT DEC 10 2005 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE VALLEYS.


No MORE sweatshirts, only shorts, tshirts and FLIP FLOPS 8-) Yes.......I'm being VERY sarcastic here but HEY....with winter over and spring being here, WHY NOT 8-)

Seriously, I have written this winter off, once we get past Christmas, I don't care if it snows or not, I mean, we're SO far behind that "IF and I do mean IF" it snows it's TOO late to do any good! The fire danger is NOW "Moderate!" that's UNHEARD OF.

I've done my research and there has NEVER been a winter without at least a FLAKE but THIS is it......the record breaker!

Dennis 8-)
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