Powerful Extratropical Low near the Azores

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HURAKAN
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Powerful Extratropical Low near the Azores

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 11, 2005 12:12 pm

A 997 MB STORM LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N30W. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 30N24W 26N23W 17N32W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
20N.

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Right now the system is clearly extratropical but it has begun to develop convection near center. It will be interesting to see if it can detach from its cold front and move a little bit closer to warmer water temperatures. Still, it will be incredible if the system can become subtropical, and bizarre if it can become tropical. Chance of becoming Zeta is around 20% or lower, but this is the 2005 hurricane season!
Last edited by HURAKAN on Mon Dec 12, 2005 7:22 am, edited 3 times in total.
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#2 Postby whereverwx » Sun Dec 11, 2005 12:13 pm

I think we might have Zeta! :eek:
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 11, 2005 12:20 pm

Calamity wrote:I think we might have Zeta! :eek:


IT WILL BE MORE THAN INTERESTING!
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#4 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Dec 11, 2005 12:27 pm

ZETA ON THE WAY PERHAPS!!!! THIS SYSTEM IS SMOKING
WILD FISH OUT OF THE WATER!!!
JUST DOGGONE WILD SO CRAZY WILD
I CAN'T STAND IT ANYMORE :eek: :eek: :eek:
DOGGONE-IT 2005 WILL NEVER END!!!!!
UGGHHHH!!!!!
CAT 5 IN 3 DAYS IMO!

Just Kidding.
Yes that is one powerful extratropical low
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 11, 2005 12:27 pm

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12z GFS at 24 hours.

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12z GFS at 48 hours.

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12z GFS at 72 hours.

Interesting that the GFS is showing the low but will it turn to a warm core one?

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12z GFS at 96 hours.

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12z GFS at 120 hours.

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12z GFS at 144 hours.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Dec 11, 2005 12:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#6 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Dec 11, 2005 12:31 pm

ZETA ZETA ZETA...imo is written all over this BIG PIGGY.
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#7 Postby whereverwx » Sun Dec 11, 2005 12:41 pm

Impressive system.

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#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Dec 11, 2005 12:59 pm

Come on zeta form for us!!! :P
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:07 pm

1:05 PM EDT TWD:

THE 995 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 31N29W. A COLD FRONT CURVES EASTWARD
FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 30N22W...TO 23N22W AND TO 16N31W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 17W AND 20W. OTHER CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 20W
AND 33W IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
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#10 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:22 pm

Scome on low move southwestward :lol:
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#11 Postby WindRunner » Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:26 pm

GFS says this is as warm-core as it will get.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05121112/17.html

CMC still develops it into more of a deep, warm-core system before making it more shallow.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmcglb/fcst/archive/05121112/14.html

UKMET shows similar soultion as CMC in terms of core temp/depth of system
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/05121112/20.html

And a 00Z run of the NOGAPS shows the same.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/05121100/23.html

Certainly looks like all the models are pointing towards this thing turning warm-core (but that doesn't necessarily mean the NHC will upgrade!)
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:31 pm

Image

The system is located over water temperatures around 20-22 degrees Celsius, this isn't going to help for Zeta to form.
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#13 Postby whereverwx » Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:47 pm

Whatever happens, it will be something to monitor.

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#14 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:55 pm

If the system move southward or southwestward theres a better chance. Remember Vince did not need warm water.
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#15 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Dec 11, 2005 2:09 pm

Zeta Zeta Zeta Phi Fi oh Theta!!!!!
j/k lol
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#16 Postby Coredesat » Sun Dec 11, 2005 2:49 pm

Also, keep in mind that Epsilon maintained its strength over waters as cold or colder than Vince.
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#17 Postby danman » Sun Dec 11, 2005 3:16 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#18 Postby gatorcane » Sun Dec 11, 2005 3:31 pm

Zeta in December...that will blow my mind! :eek:
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 11, 2005 4:35 pm

Image

POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW!
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Dec 11, 2005 4:36 pm

boca_chris wrote:Zeta in December...that will blow my mind! :eek:


Maybe not!!
Zeta in any other month, then it will blow my mind!!!!!!! :lol: :eek: :lol:
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