The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
I dedicate this thread to the Georgians, Alabamans, North and South Carolinians and Tennesseans who sit under a snow-shield. While the states around us enjoy wintery precip, we get cold cold rain.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2005
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE FULLY DEVELOPS...GULF LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
COOL DRY AIR IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S IN SOME PLACES IN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA. AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEDGES THIS WAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...BRINGING THIS DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA /PARTS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL NOT QUITE REALIZE THIS DRIER AIR/. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE LOWER 30S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE AND AS HIGH CLOUDINESS BEGINS TO STREAM IN FROM THE GULF COAST SYSTEM...HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL WILL RISE ONLY TO THE 40S IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...PERHAPS MAKING IT UP TO THE 50S IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT BEARING ON P-TYPE TRENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUS THEY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS WHEN IT GETS INTERESTING. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR...ALLOWING EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO TAKE OVER. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW DRY IT IS...TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN EXPECTED...BUT SURFACE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS THE GULF SYSTEM APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT HAVE ANY LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT BELOW FREEZING. WBZ`S WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY AS THEY HOVER AROUND ZERO IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES PER THE NEW NOMOGRAM INDICATE THAT AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS /SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF DRY AIR/ THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY PREFERRED CAD AREA NEAR GAINESVILLE AND EVEN PERHAPS TO ATHENS MAY SEE PERIODS OF INTERMITTENT FREEZING RAIN... ALTHOUGH FOR THE MOST PART EVERYONE WILL SEE JUST PLAIN RAIN. IN LOCATIONS WHERE FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR...WHILE THE SURFACE MAY NOT SEE MANY IMPACTS...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE TREETOPS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE HARDLY ANY TO WORRY ABOUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ATLANTA METRO AREA IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AND WHILE OF COURSE FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WBZ`S REMAIN ABOVE ZERO AFTER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND THE COLD DOME LOOKS TO BE JUST TOO SHALLOW. ALONG THOSE LINES...THE DEPTH OF THE COLD DOME ALSO LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW FOR MUCH IF ANY SLEET...SO HAVE KEPT WORDING IN THE GRIDS AT FREEZING RAIN...AND KEPT THAT POSSIBILITY AT ONLY A CHANCE GIVEN PROFILES...PARTIAL THICKNESSES...AND TEMPERATURES.
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT DURING LATE THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR POORLY HANDLING CAD EROSION...BUT BETWEEN THE GULF SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT FROM A SYSTEM TREKKING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...I WOULD EXPECT THAT AT LEAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING...WHICH IS HOW IT HAS BEEN DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS THURSDAY MAY CREEP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S IN EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES...AND THIS IS UNDERCUTTING MOS BY QUITE A BIT. ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA...MAINLY IN THE 40S. IN GENERAL...TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE CAD WEDGE ERODES. UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40 BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
CLEAR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT ANOTHER GULF SYSTEM THAT WANTS TO DEVELOP IN SOME MODEL RUNS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS HAS THIS DEPICTED IN THE 12Z RUN FROM THIS MORNING...BUT NOT MUCH IMPACT...AND FOR NOW ONLY RAIN. THE ECMWF HAD THE SYSTEM IN THE 00Z RUN BUT HAS NOW BACKED OF. THUS FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONE WITH AT MOST CHANCE POPS AS THE SYSTEM GENERALLY SKIRTS TO THE SOUTH. BEFORE AND AFTER THE GULF LOW...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S.
&&
Don't we deserve a weather treat after what we've been through? 
