Washington DC snow Feb 14th-16th

[Jim Hughes]

Many things are pointing toward a pattern change in my opinion and I feel pretty confident that the metropolitan area around Washington DC will be on the receiving end of accumulating snow between February 14th-16th.

I am basing this on a few factors that I have used over the years when forecasting events like this so far out in advance. I believe the atmosphere is very cyclical in nature and you can find waves in it if you watch things closely.

I have given out at least one three day snowfall period during every winter but one , since the winter of 1994-95. (I did not give one out during the winter of 1997-98 and I think DCA only received about 3" inches that winter.)

It has only not snowed once during my time frames and this was in the winter of 2003-2004. Now I moved to West Virgina on December 31st 2003 so I would like to think that this played a role in my only forecast failure. Especially since all of my research data was packed away in boxes at the time.

Anyone who has ever moved knows what it takes and how time consuming it is. Then throw in three year old twins. I rest my case.

My forecast last year for January 22nd-24th came to be true and most of the Northeastern part of the country got hammered by a major snowstorm.

A recent warming in the stratosphere, at the north pole, during the past couple of days has given me even more confidence about this outlook. This warming is QUITE STRONG, and somewhat unusual for this time of the winter. So I feel very confident that there will be plenty of cold air around during this time period and the amplitude of the jet stream should be quite strong.

Many parts of the country could be under the influence of this cold pattern and some areas, well to the south , could experience some severe weather depending upon how the jet stream lines up.

Today's readings are not in yet but I believe there have only been four days in the past 27 years in which we saw warmer temperature readings in the stratosphere at the north pole. (30 hPa)

These four days occurred in two, two day groups. One was in February 1984 and the other was in March 1989. (3/3 & 3/4/1984 and 2/23 & 2/24/1989 )

We saw lots of colder air after the usual lag time of approximately 23 days during March 1989. Snowstorms in the Midwest and Northeast occurred. Marquette Mi. recorded a temperature of -11 degrees below on 3/19.

BWI in Baltimore Maryland was quite warm on March 18th 80/43 compared to the normal 55/34. But then the bottom fell out on the 19th and it was 44/31. Parts of West Virgina received eight inches of snow.

The extremeness showed up in 1984 but it was the opposite in some parts. Brownsville Texas recorded a temperature of 108 degrees on March 26 and Cotulla Texas set a new daily record for the state with 108. The Carolinas were hit by severe weather and 22 tornadoes touched down there on the 27th. Ice storms in other parts of the country were also present around this time frame.

Now I am not going by just these two events. I have been monitoring and using this methodology for almost a decade now and I know what these major warmings can do to the troposphere. They are an important indicator.

I am also relying on some other things that I can not talk about within this forum.


Jim

[WindRunner]

Hope those extremes are towards the cold end of the spectrum, that would be a nice change around here. Sure would like to here about those "other things," too.

[terstorm1012]

Grrr...couldn't it come a little earlier? I have a huge meeting in that time frame...

[Jim Hughes]

Grrr...couldn't it come a little earlier? I have a huge meeting in that time frame...

Be careful what you wish for. Wouldn't it just pile up higher when this snow comes around ?



Jim

[WaitingForSiren]

How can you make such a pinpointed forecast so ridiculously far in advance?

[Jim Hughes]

How can you make such a pinpointed forecast so ridiculously far in advance?

I guess I am lucky then from your standpoint. I spoke the truth above about my forecast success since the winter of 1994-95. You can either believe me or disbelieve. That is your choice.

My area of Montgomery County Maryland, Montgomery Village, received 6" inches or more of snow during every one of my forecasts up until 2000. I then went on a slippery slope in which a dusting to 1 inch occurred. I rebounded strongly last winter.

Our region does not get to many six inch snowfalls. So I felt really good about my outlooks. So let's see what happens this time around.



Jim

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Way too far ahead. Hell sometimes 48, or even 24 hour, forecast are not 100% accurate. I'll wait and see how things develop personally.

[WaitingForSiren]

Thats one heck of a storm in your user picture.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yup that it was! A combination of Hurricane Michelle and a Nor'Easter in early November of 2001. Gave my area, which was on the Western fringe, sustained winds of 50 mph and peak gusts of up to 85 mph. The highest speeds we had since Hurricane Gerda in September of 1969, or so I'm told. It was actually the inspiration for my user name.

[tornadochaser1986]

how much snow are we talking about here a couple inches or a major winter storm?

[Jim Hughes]

how much snow are we talking about here a couple inches or a major winter storm?

This type of forecasting is a tough thing to do. Especially in a winter like this winter with all the and warmth and all. So I will leave the totals to the forecast models. Last year I was more confident in larger totals between January 22nd-24th because we had seen a coastal storm form off the coast of the Va. Beach/ Norforlk area about four weeks before my time frame.

I firmly believe in the cyclical nature of the atmosphere while certain things are occurring and some other things were also lining up perfect. I mentioned in one reply e-mail to an OCM that this forecast , which was made as far out as this one, was like taking candy from a baby and it was a cinch.

Lets just say the stars, or star, were lining up perfect. Regular readers of my discussions and theories should know what this means.

The only thing I can tell you is that parts of the DC metropolitan area have received about 6 inches or more during half of the time.

Are things the same as last year? No but things can change quickly. So I always just think that any kind of totals are possible.


Jim