severe storms in Texas?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is this afternoons discussion from the SPC for our area:

FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST TX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
STORMS. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS EAST TX AROUND MIDDAY ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET DRIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGLY
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND/OR WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL.

Hmmm...islolated tornado threat? Wind damage potential? Supercells? We will need to watch the skies closely tomorrow.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also..here is an excerpt from the Hazardous weather outlook for Houston:

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CROSSING OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN
THREATS COMING FROM SUPER CELL STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS, HAIL
TO QUARTER SIZE, AND BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADOES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 1/2 TO AROUND 1 INCH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES UNDER STRONGEST STORMS.

[Tyler]

Yes, we will have to watch tommorow for severe weather. Luckily, it looks isolated, and mostly the threat tommorow should be heavy rain, which we, as well as everyone else in Texas, DESPERATLY needs!

[Stratosphere747]

Extreme, if you have not already done so....Get on Jeff's e-mail list for weather updates in our area. Top notch and better than any paid service...IMO...

Scott

[Tyler]

Extreme, if you have not already done so....Get on Jeff's e-mail list for weather updates in our area. Top notch and better than any paid service...IMO...

Scott

Stratosphere, I would like to be on his e-mail list for weather updates as well. How would I go about doing this?

[WaitingForSiren]

I dont really expect any severe weather in Texas tomorrow. I think any severe weather will be confined to Oklahoma and western Arkansas, And even that will be isolated, with marginal hail and isolated wind damage, maybe a tornado or two in northeastern oklahoma and southeastern kansas. Otherwise, looks like mainly rain for texas, but i guess i wouldnt be surprised to see a few microbursts in southeast/eastern texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I dont really expect any severe weather in Texas tomorrow. I think any severe weather will be confined to Oklahoma and western Arkansas, And even that will be isolated, with marginal hail and isolated wind damage, maybe a tornado or two in northeastern oklahoma and southeastern kansas. Otherwise, looks like mainly rain for texas, but i guess i wouldnt be surprised to see a few microbursts in southeast/eastern texas.

I am not so sure. We did manage to get some sun in today and it looks like we may even be able to get a few peaks of sunshine in tomorrow (since we have no rain in the area tonight and it looks to be 12-16 hrs. away before we get any). Also, dewpoints are in the upper 50s right now, and will probably be in the 60s tomorrow. With the addition of good upper-level dynamics; I think a few supercells will be able to form in the Houston area capable of weak tornadoes, 50-70mph wind gusts, and pea to quarter-sized hail tomorrow. Probably won't be a widespread event, but a few places may get hit with a decent severe storm.

[jusforsean]

Hey all...
off topic but need input from texans, due to the florida hurricanes, we are relocating, my friend bought in little elm, my dad is torn between a place in terrell or rockwall? Any sugesstions? i am thinking rockwall is nice, we have 3 kids i would also like a charter school which i see in little elm I dont know if its good? Thanks for your input!

[WaitingForSiren]

Like i said before, it still looks like the best severe threat is across oklahoma and northeast Texas into western arkansas. I wouldnt be surprised if theres 5 or so tornado reports today, maybe even a few more. looks like a line from Dallas to Oklahoma City.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston NWS now has heading of "Severe storms" in the forecast! Also, with a little sun breaking through this morning and dewpoints in the 60s...as well as after looking at the SPC's latest discussion...I am getting concerned that we may have some severe weather around Houston today.

[southerngale]

Hey all...
off topic but need input from texans, due to the florida hurricanes, we are relocating, my friend bought in little elm, my dad is torn between a place in terrell or rockwall? Any sugesstions? i am thinking rockwall is nice, we have 3 kids i would also like a charter school which i see in little elm I dont know if its good? Thanks for your input!

You should probably start a thread in the Off Topic section on here as well. You might get a better response. I wish I could help, but I'm not very familiar with either place.

[southerngale]

The system seems to be moving pretty slow too. I looked at a Texas radar before I went to sleep thinking that it might all be over by noon. It hasn't made much progress many hours later (but it's gotten bigger and stronger). It won't even be close by noon!

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest from the SPC:

...SE TX/LA...
OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED INTO A NE/SW BAND THAT
ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR KTXK TO KAUS. THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE E
THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE WEAKENING OVER WRN LA THIS EVENING.

CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL HEATING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND...AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK AS MAJOR PORTION OF UPR
TROUGH PASSES BY N OF REGION. BUT SATELLITE AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW A WEDGE OF MORE STRONGLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
PRESENT W OF WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING SSE INTO THE GULF FROM NEAR
BPT. THIS AIR SHOULD SPREAD N INTO SE TX THROUGH THE DAY.

COMBINATION OF MODERATE MOISTURE INFLUX /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S/ AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING MAY FOSTER INTENSIFICATION OF CELLS
IN THE SRN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
DEEP WLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-50 KTS ON SRN FRINGE OF EJECTING
TROUGH...SETUP COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
A COUPLE LEWPS/SMALL BOWS. A LOW PROBABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE
BAND OVER SE TX AND PERHAPS SW LA. WHILE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO
WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS.

ACCELERATION OF UPR TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW SE TX/WRN LA STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP E INTO MS LATER TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE
WEAK /SBCAPE LIKELY AOB 250 J PER KG/...BUT COULD SUPPORT
CONTINUATION OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO REGION FROM THE W.

[WaitingForSiren]

yeah but the problem in SE Texas is that since the main area of convection is moving slow, the storms that eventually hit Houstan will be the ones that developed to the west, BEHIND the current area, so the chances of severe weather in Houstan are relatively low. Im starting to lose faith in severe storms across northern texas and eastern oklahoma as well. The area of rain is moving slow, so there might not be enough surface heating.

[Garnetcat5]

OK when is the severe stuff suppose to get here. I am trying to get some work done at the school while it's quiet but I need to time it so I'm not driving home in it! I'm a bad driver on a good day!! I am in far sw houston and heading further west into Richmond TX.

[jasons2k]

Hey all...
off topic but need input from texans, due to the florida hurricanes, we are relocating, my friend bought in little elm, my dad is torn between a place in terrell or rockwall? Any sugesstions? i am thinking rockwall is nice, we have 3 kids i would also like a charter school which i see in little elm I dont know if its good? Thanks for your input!

Do you have a commute? I would make that a huge consideration, as Terrell and Litttle Elm are pretty far apart. Houses are reasonable in both places. The nice thing about Little Elm is that it's close to Frisco, where there is a lot of new shopping and growth. The disadvantage to Little Elm is the traffic getting in and out during rush hour. It's tough getting to the Tollway or 121, but the area is nicer than Terrell.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am noticing a nice line of storms setting up to the SW of Houston right now. It seems to be moving ENE and should affect our area later today. The line seems to be strengthening and I would not be surprised to see parts of the line become severe later on. I am also notcing a nice breezy, humid airmass coming off the gulf right now too. THe cloud deck above is zipping along fast and gusts to 30mph are already occuring (at IAH) out ahead of the convection. It is beginning to feel "right" for some kind of strong or severe activity. Also the SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion for us saying that isolated strong wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible this afternoon. They also say that a WW (weather watch) may be needed. Stay tuned Houstonians...

EDIT: I would predict the line of storm to reach Houston between 2-4pm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am starting to see some small bowing features along parts of the approaching line of storms. While these areas may not be seeing severe winds, I do expect that we should all see 30-40mph+ gusts with the storms passage, and a few of us may see gusts over 50mph. If this line can get it's act together a little more then we may have to worry about a few isolated reports of severe wind gusts to 60mph or so. As of now, though, this line is not rapidly developing, so the severe weather may not quite be able to play out in Houston, but we will need to watch it closely during the next 30-60 minutes as it is beginning to enter a better area for isolated severe developement.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well latest looks on radar show that the line of storms seems to be weakening...I feel that this will be a non-event severe weather wise now. May be a few gusts to 35-45mph in the line, but that's about it. Things can change quickly though, but the chance of severe weather in Houston seems to have become minimal at best.

[southerngale]

The storms are still pretty far out and I'm already seeing some wind gusts. A few miles from here, 36mph gust was recently recorded. On radar, it looks like a few hours before it all gets here.

It's mostly overcast with some sprinkles here and there and the sun peeking through occasionally.