DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE
PSX 30 NW VCT 10 ENE AUS 40 NNW CLL 35 ENE LFK 30 SE ESF 40 ESE MCB
30 N GPT 15 ESE MOB 25 WSW PNS 40 S PNS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE CRP 20 SSW NIR
20 ESE HDO 60 N DRT 50 E FST 20 SSW BGS 40 W MWL 35 ESE GYI 35 WSW
HOT 35 NNE PBF 15 W UOX 20 ENE CBM 25 NNE 0A8 25 N MGM 30 ENE CEW 30
SW PFN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 15 SSE SEA
35 NNW SLE 35 WSW ONP.
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX AND THE
NCNTRL GULF COAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO COMPACT SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO MODEST AMPLIFICATION WHILE DEVELOPING
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
FROM THERE...THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND STRONG DPVA SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE PROGS INDICATE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SERN TX IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
FORCING...AND THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK FROM TX TO LA THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
FAST FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN STATES THIS PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...SERN TX TO NCNTRL GULF COAST AREA...
DESPITE RECENT COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION WELL INTO THE WRN GULF...LOW
60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE ALREADY REAPPEARING OVER SOUTH TX.
EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITH LOW TO MID 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN
AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE BIG BEND AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT...COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERCOME INHIBITION AND
RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION BETWEEN HILL COUNTRY AND GULF COAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND GREATER CHANCE FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS...WILL EXIST NEAR THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. HOWEVER...EVEN CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FARTHER INLAND MAY PRODUCE HAIL GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMICS
ALOFT.
ENHANCED LIFT AND MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW...AND ALONG WARM/COASTAL FRONTS...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT GREATER
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORM CLUSTERS AND SCATTERED SUPERCELLS MAY
EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS ACROSS NERN TX GULF COAST AND SPREAD EAST
INTO SRN LA THROUGH THE EVENING. AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO
ABOUT 70KT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OF GREATEST TSTM
POTENTIAL...EVOLUTION INTO A BOW ECHO WITH DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...DISCRETE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE COASTAL/WARM
FRONT COULD ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES IF BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY. AS CONVECTIVE MODE AND AIR MASS QUALITY BECOME BETTER
DEFINED IN LATER GUIDANCE...AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN GULF COAST
REGION. STAY TUNED TO LATER OUTLOOKS.
..CARBIN.. 01/31/2006
Would not even be surprised to see some golf ball sized or larger hail in a few cells that get fired up.
