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AREAS OF PINELLAS HAVE RECEIVED 15 INCHES OF RAIN. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ITS GOING TO STOP ANYTIME SOON.
Provided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print

000
FXUS62 KTBW 031901 AAA
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
145 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

...TORNADO WATCH FROM PASCO COUNTY AND SOUTHWARD INTO LEE COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM EST...

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN EFFECT
UNTIL 215 PM EST AND FOR SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EST...

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CENTRAL WESTERN FLORIDA
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF THIS AFTERNOON-SUNDAY)...A LONG LIVED SQUALL
LINE THAT DEVELOPED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING EVOLVED INTO A TRAINING
SYSTEM WITH A LONG EXTENDED LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS TO EASTERN
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY. AT THIS TIME THIS HAS BECOME A SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD EVENT WHICH IS STILL WELL ON ITS WAY. ALTHOUGH THE INDIVIDUAL
STORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN AVERAGE RADAR TRANSLATIONAL SIGNATURE OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MOVING NORTHEAST...THE TRAINING NATURE OF THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR BASICALLY UNINTERRUPTED RAIN TO KEEP
FALLING OVER THE SAME AREA ESPECIALLY AT PINELLAS COUNTY. NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL RIGHT OVER THE AREA OF PINELLAS PARK WITH AN ESTIMATE OF AS
MUCH AS 8 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 3 HOURS...AND A BROADER
AREA AROUND WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH OF 5 TO 6 INCHES.
EARLIER THIS MORNING PASCO ALSO REPORTED SOME SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
AS AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS MOVED FROM THE COAST AND INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY. THE IMPACT OF THE EVENT HAS BEEN
PARTICULARLY STRONG BECAUSE IT IS AFFECTING A LARGE URBAN AREA WITH
A HIGH POPULATION CONCENTRATION.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL RACING OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS STILL TRAINING FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND OVER
THE COAST ALONG PINELLAS AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. BUT SO FAR THE
GREATEST IMPACT HAS BEEN DUE TO THE TORRENTIAL RAINS.

WITH STILL SOME FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES AND CONDITIONS FOR LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY AND A MODERATE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SPC IS
KEEPING A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EST...MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THE MAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. MOTORISTS COMMUTING ALONG
MAJOR HIGHWAYS AND INTERSTATES MUST EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION AND
AVOID AREAS THAT TRADITIONALLY ARE PRONE TO FLOODING. OVERNIGHT THE
RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AFFECTING MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA.

THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OVER FLORIDA HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST US SWINGING AROUND AN
AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. DAY 2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SWITCHES
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF SARASOTA BUT KEEPS IT AS JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM.

AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTH AND SWINGS RIGHT OVER THE AREA
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. ON
THE OTHER HAND AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH ON
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A DRAMATIC DECREASE
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS DROPPING AROUND 20 DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST THRU THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH OUR AREA INFLUENCED MAINLY BY DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND
ANOTHER ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL
CAPS POPS AT 10 PCNT. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORM.

&&

.MARINE...SCEC IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EST FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN MOST NEAR SHORE WATERS AND WILL PROBABLY BE
EXTENDED OVERNIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. ON
SATURDAY WINDS MAY REACH SCA IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
PASSAGE. OFFSHORE WATERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO HIT SCA CRITERIA AS
WINDS WILL REACH THE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. AN SCA WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS...RAIN...AND FOG
LIKELY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS ON SATURDAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. ON SUNDAY
SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
MAY EXPERIENCE 1 T 2 HOURS OF RH VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 65 67 45 62 / 70 60 5 5
FMY 67 72 48 67 / 60 70 10 5
GIF 66 70 43 63 / 70 70 5 5
SRQ 67 68 46 63 / 70 70 5 5
BKV 62 66 35 63 / 70 60 5 5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH FOR PASCO...HILLSBOROUGH...PINELLAS...POLK...
MANATEE...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS...DESOTO...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE
AND LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EST.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM EST FOR CENTRAL
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EST FOR SOUTHERN
PINELLAS COUNTY.


GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING
BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS FROM 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE AND FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
TO 20 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON
ALL OTHER WATERS EXCEPT FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...AR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...NP