Severe Weather Pot. For S. Fla. Tonight and Tomorrow?

[MiamiensisWx]

I think there may be a potential for severe weather in certain areas across southern Florida from tonight through tomorrow night, starting tonight. The front that is approaching from a developing low-pressure system, coupled with warm, south-to-north flow may very well enhance the potential for strong storms across southern Florida before cooler and clearer conditions arrive behind the cold front. Who agrees? Any thought on the potential for severe weather in southern Florida from tonight through tomorrow?

Here is the latest radar information... strong storms are approaching...

[cycloneye]

CapeVerdeWave I moved this thread to this forum as you posted it at the winter forum.

[MiamiensisWx]

Thanks, Luis!

[mike815]

yup where under the gun thanks for the radar stuff i might be activated tonight

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks somewhat ominous outside my house right now... southern Florida is now under the gun, along with central Florida and much of the southeastern U.S. The way the front and system is shaping up will enhance strong storms. Be on the lookout, southern Florida! We're next!

[mike815]

it will become very interesting overnight

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree, mike815! What is the latest Miami NWS informastion on severe weather for tonight and tomorrow?

[MiamiensisWx]

ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS.

STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM -- AROUND 30 SW APF/NAPLES AT 22Z --
APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST FL PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ROUGHLY STALLED NORTH OF
A NAPLES TO PALM BEACH CORRIDOR...THIS STORM APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH
THE SOUTHERN COLLIER OR PERHAPS NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY COAST BY
AROUND 2300-2330Z. WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
EXISTING ACROSS SOUTHERN FL...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES PER 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS/LOCAL WSR-88D
VWPS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND/OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING.

This is the latest information from the NWS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a feeling that a watch will be issued. If not...still isolated severe weather a possibility.

[MiamiensisWx]

I have a feeling that a watch will be issued. If not...still isolated severe weather a possibility.

I agree!

[mike815]

yes a twister watch i think rotating storms

[MiamiensisWx]

yes a twister watch i think rotating storms

Hail and severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are increasingly likely tonight!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Checking central Florida too...I am noticing a few strong cells up that way. With less instability the svr. threat will probably slowly diminish up there, but a few damaging wind reports are possible. There is still a T-storm watch in north central FL too. Back to S. Florida...the latest mesoscale discussion from the SPC mentions supercells as being a possibility and say that isolated tornadoes may form...watch out!

[MiamiensisWx]

Checking central Florida too...I am noticing a few strong cells up that way. With less instability the svr. threat will probably slowly diminish up there, but a few damaging wind reports are possible. There is still a T-storm watch in north central FL too. Back to S. Florida...the latest mesoscale discussion from the SPC mentions supercells as being a possibility and say that isolated tornadoes may form...watch out!

Yep... instability and the severe weather potential is increasing in southern Florida!

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, the strong cell near Naples and Marco Island has moved onshore! If you are in the path of that cell or are in it, look out!

[MiamiensisWx]

A severe thunderstorm warning is now in effect for Collier County due to the cell mentioned above! Here is the warning...

000
WUUS52 KMFL 032326
SVRMFL
FLC021-040000-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0002.060203T2325Z-060204T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
625 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA

* UNTIL 700 PM EST

* AT 620 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED OVER MARCO ISLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
MARCO ISLAND
GOODLAND
ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK
COPELAND

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY
INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 2591 8183 2585 8181 2592 8133 2615 8143

$$

DG

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the latest outlook for hazardous weather...

000
FLUS42 KMFL 031546 AAA
HWOMFL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1046 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

FLZ063-066>075-041515-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
1010 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...
...COLD WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE INTERIOR AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
...COLDER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

COOLER, DRIER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS AND MOSTLY 40S ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT NEAR 50 ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 MPH OR LESS OVER
MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, WIND CHILL
READINGS MAY STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS, AND LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE EAST COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP. THEREFORE,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS, WITH MOSTLY 40S ELSEWHERE.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 FEET OR HIGHER ON SATURDAY OVER THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM. THE SEAS
WILL REMAIN 7 FEET OR HIGHER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
$$

For those who need it, here is the severe thunderstorm warning for Collier County...

000
WUUS52 KMFL 032326
SVRMFL
FLC021-040000-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0002.060203T2325Z-060204T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
625 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA

* UNTIL 700 PM EST

* AT 620 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED OVER MARCO ISLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
MARCO ISLAND
GOODLAND
ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK
COPELAND

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY
INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 2591 8183 2585 8181 2592 8133 2615 8143

$$

DG

[mike815]

cool thanks yeah spotters may be activated this is rough stuff

[WaitingForSiren]

I dont expect any severe weather in southern Florida overnight...lapse rates are low and hardly any instability...also, the pattern has been for mainly non-severe storms in florida today. The best severe threat is for hail across MS and AL tonight.

[mike815]

yeah that will change though as the evening progresses