Southeast Florida: Reasons For A Major Hit Soon

[MiamiensisWx]

I have a strong feeling that southeast Florida is awaiting a big storm. Why? Read on...

I have a feeling that southeastern Florida (Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties) will get hit by a major hurricane from the eastern side of the state. If you think about it, these three counties have not seen a major hurricane in quite a while. Frances and Jeanne made landfall in east-central (not southeast) Florida, and only Jeanne was considered a major hurricane at landfall. Wilma dosn't count because it made landfall in southwest Florida and was a Category Two when it went through southeastern Florida. This means that southeast Florida has not yet recently seen a major hurricane. I have a strong feeling that this empty streak is coming to an end because southeastern Florida has usually been hit at least once during active cycles, such as that in the 1940s. With these details, southeastern Florida has had only one major hit in fairly recent years: Andrew from 1992. The day is coming...

Who agrees? I also think it may well be this year.

[MiamiensisWx]

I just found out that Andrew has been the only storm to hit southeast Florida as a major hurricane in more than twenty years. It's coming... I have a strong feeling...

[Jim Cantore]

if the bermuda high is in the right spot then 99.8% yes

[Opal storm]

Yes I think they will get hit this year by a major hurricane,especially if this is going to be a strong Cape Verde season.

[MiamiensisWx]

I feel that the La Nina may shift closer to neutral by summer. Why? It has started early. It is likely to moderate, therefore, by summer slightly, increasing the risk to southeast Florida (Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties).

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think that Houston is more due than SE Florida. Houston has not seen hurricane force winds since 1983..and even then...it was just hurricane force gusts. The scary thing though is that during the last active cycle they were hit over and over and some periods seemed like hurricane force winds were the summer-time norm. I mean look at the link below for the storms that affected Houston in the 40s! Crazy! But again we are 23 years overdue and are just barely getting lucky each season. I have a feeling it is Houston's year...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1940s_maps.htm
^^TX storms in the 40s^^

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1990s_maps.htm
^^TX storms in the 90s (not a single hurricane!)^^

[Derek Ortt]

Miami seldom is hit form the east though

most hits come from the SSE to the SW. A Wilma/Irene track is more common than the Andrew/Katrina

[JonathanBelles]

i have a strong feeling that miami, tampa, n.o., and boston are going to get hit

[Ixolib]

I think that Houston is more due than SE Florida. Houston has not seen hurricane force winds since 1983..and even then...it was just hurricane force gusts. The scary thing though is that during the last active cycle they were hit over and over and some periods seemed like hurricane force winds were the summer-time norm. I mean look at the link below for the storms that affected Houston in the 40s! Crazy! But again we are 23 years overdue and are just barely getting lucky each season. I have a feeling it is Houston's year...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1940s_maps.htm
^^TX storms in the 40s^^

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1990s_maps.htm
^^TX storms in the 90s (not a single hurricane!)^^

...And how much growth has taken place in the last 23 years!!?? Kinda like the MS coast between its two major hits - the growth was astronomical.

And how 'bout that - post #2000!!

[JonathanBelles]

And how 'bout that - post #2000!!

huh??

[CHRISTY]

YEP...as sadly to say i think our time has come for us here in the southeast..weve been hit by a cat 1 there a tropical storm there but something tells me that 2006 will be andrew all over again!hopefully iam wrong but we have been very lucky and our good luck is not gonna last for ever..

[ROCK]

I think that Houston is more due than SE Florida. Houston has not seen hurricane force winds since 1983..and even then...it was just hurricane force gusts. The scary thing though is that during the last active cycle they were hit over and over and some periods seemed like hurricane force winds were the summer-time norm. I mean look at the link below for the storms that affected Houston in the 40s! Crazy! But again we are 23 years overdue and are just barely getting lucky each season. I have a feeling it is Houston's year...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1940s_maps.htm
^^TX storms in the 40s^^

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1990s_maps.htm
^^TX storms in the 90s (not a single hurricane!)^^

great info there, Extreme. Been a long time for Texas. Official landfalls that is.....I think the west coast of FL will see some event this year while the NGOM gets a break. East coast, FL and TX are my landfall predictions...

[tornadochaser1986]

ya i think this may be the year for a major one to hit florida i also think the northeast may see a few hurricanes up there alley to

[Ixolib]

And how 'bout that - post #2000!!

huh??

To your left... Of course, now it's 2001!! Just commenting on my S2K participation to date.

[EDR1222]

I think there are many areas that we could say are due but as Derek mentioned many Southeast Florida hurricanes approach from the south or from the Southwest.

Although there are exceptions I would think one coming up from the South underneath Cuba could be a bigger possibility this upcoming season than one coming in strait from the Southeast.

[recmod]

Miami seldom is hit form the east though

most hits come from the SSE to the SW. A Wilma/Irene track is more common than the Andrew/Katrina

I dunno Derek, you might want to rethink that...nearly ALL the major Miami strikes in history have come from the east:

1888:



1891:



1903:


(more a Fort Lauderdale strike, but the idea is the same)

1926:



1929:


(this one passed south of Miami, but again, the track was primarily from the east...a few miles north in landfall and Miami would have received the brunt)

1941:



1945:


(this one could be argued as coming in more from the SE)

1947:


(yeah, I know..another one that is more a Fort Lauderdale strike, but again, the idea is the same)

1965:


(I include Betsy only because this storm, tho passing through the Keys, largely sparing Miami, had another trajectory coming in primarily from the east. Again, a landfall just a few miles north would have been a major hit on Miami)

1966:


(Inez is yet another one that COULD have provided a major impact to Miami had the landfall been just a few miles to the north)

1992:


(Andrew needs no introduction)

--Lou

[Derek Ortt]

Most of those did not even hit Miami... they went north or south of the city

The 1947 hurricane was a Broward event

Inez was in the Keys

1903 looks to be PB

Now... look at th tracks from 1960 on

Cleo... SSE

Betsy: Keys and an exception

Inez: The same

David: SSE

Dennis (1981) south

Floyd (1987) SW

Fabian (1991) SW

Gordon: SSE

Irene: SSW

Michelle: SSW

Charley: South (did bring very high winds to miami briefly)

Dennis: south (similar impacts as Charley)

Katrina: East

Wilma: SW

I know I am missing quite a few TS's into Miami as well

[KWT]

Derek I think your missing the point of what recmod is saying, even if most of those didnt hit Miami itslef the images do sort of show that alot of the SE of Florida gets majors from the east/ESE/ENE sort of direction and that even if they don't directly hit the city, it doesn't mean one bolting in from the same direction as those above won't hit Miami head on.

As a guess I'd think there are more major hurricanes that hit *south-eastern* from the east through SSE then the other way round.

[MiamiensisWx]

I am not specifically referring to Miami, Ortt. I am referring to anywhere in southeastern Florida in Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties.

[Derek Ortt]

even for that, direct hits do tend to come from the south more, and were very common many years ago (like the 40's). Tracks like Izbell in 1964 and Wilma should not be unexpected