"How much LONGER can THIS go ON?"

[azsnowman]

We are at the END of our ROPES up here.........HOW much LONGER can this dam DRY SPELL GO ON It's DEPRESSING as ALL HADES to SEE EVERYTHING you've busted your bum over DIE due to the DROUGHT.........it's HORRIBLE, it's beyond WORDS, EVERYTHING is DYING or is already DEAD including my SPIRIT. It's gotten to the point to where I don't even CARE, I don't watch the weather anymore! I turn the channel when it comes on with the local news, I turn off the radio when the weather comes on, I've deleted/blocked The Weather Channel from my digital line up I mean WHY.......it's the same old **** day after day, "Above normal temps, NO moisture in sight!" This down right (pardon the expression) SUCKS!

Dennis

[Extremeweatherguy]

Long range GFS shows a colder and wetter look for your area starting in about 12 days...but then again it is the long range GFS. Here is a look at a possible large storm for you guys in 15/16 days IF the GFS were to be right:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

[azsnowman]

Thanks, however, the GFS has been wrong the entire "Nothing" season (formally winter)........it has not verified ONE TIME over the past 4 months........let's just say, I'm NOT holding my breath (dreaming perhaps, just DREAMING)

Thanks for your input

azdustman (formely azsnowman)

[azsnowman]

All joking aside, I now see why the HoHoKam and Anasazi Indians dissapeared from the Southwest.........it's DROUGHT that killed them! I'm tellin' ya, "IF" we didn't have a modern day water system we'd be in a HEAP O' trouble. I've NEVER seen ANYTHING like it..........it's one thing to have a "dry spell" BUT NOT to have MONTHS and MONTHS and MONTHS without ANY kind of moisture, even a CLOUD for THAT matter.........AH WELL, someday, somehow, SOMEWAY MAYBE, just MAYBE we'll get a cloud!

Dennis

[TT-SEA]

The jet stream has pushed WAY north.

A mostly sunny week coming up in Seattle as well. We will enjoy it.

Despite the Seahawks losing... the referees stole the game from them!!

[aveosmth]

I wish that run were to verify...half of the lower elevations of SoCal (1500 ft & above) would be under 3-5" of snow & Vegas would get clobbered with the white stuff.

[Aslkahuna]

By and large the pattern shown on the extended GFS is not one that brings large amounts of precipitation to AZ. The best patterns for such all feature a system that lifts out across the state from around Baja after making a major ST moisture connection or a system that tracks across southern AZ or far northern MX again with a strong moisture connection. Inside sliders or systems that come in from NoCA are usually too far north to be a major rain event. AZ dust is right if the extended GFS has verified routinely, we would have about 40 inches of rain down here since the end of September. I do not see any reasonable amounts of precipitation until the monsoon and that may not be enough if the drought dries it out too much. We are in a feedback loop now that will keep the drought going for some time.

Steve

[boca]

I'm hoping that upper level low off California dips south enough to give you some precip in Arizona soon good luck.

[azsnowman]

By and large the pattern shown on the extended GFS is not one that brings large amounts of precipitation to AZ. The best patterns for such all feature a system that lifts out across the state from around Baja after making a major ST moisture connection or a system that tracks across southern AZ or far northern MX again with a strong moisture connection. Inside sliders or systems that come in from NoCA are usually too far north to be a major rain event. AZ dust is right if the extended GFS has verified routinely, we would have about 40 inches of rain down here since the end of September. I do not see any reasonable amounts of precipitation until the monsoon and that may not be enough if the drought dries it out too much. We are in a feedback loop now that will keep the drought going for some time.

Steve

Steve, I've had the water on the lawn for 4 days now and it's JUST now starting to perculate it took OVER 24 hours for the ground to soften up enough to allow the water to perculate.....I "attempted" to rototill the vegetable garden, I mean with daytime temps in the 60's and nights in the UPPER 30's WHY NOT? Anyway.......the 1st pass with the tiller, as God as my witness, I BROKE a tine off (it was probably weak to be begin with but non the less BROKE IT!).......I put the water on the garden area for 18 hours on a slow drip and I FINALLY got it tilled! Yeah, I'm probably NUTZ for even THINKING about planting a garden this year but according to the water company ALL the wells in town are in EXCELLENT shape from last years deluge of moisture. There are MANY natural artezian wells and springs around the mountain that are running at capacity, it's amazing, the worst drought in recent memory and there's running water, only in spots mind you.......

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

I'm having to deep water my fruit trees though it may not be enough since both my nectarine and backyard apricot showed signs of stress last Summer since we didn't get the positive anomalies you did up there during the winter. We haven't even had 10% of normal down here since November 1.

Steve

[TT-SEA]

It does not look the dry spell will end anytime soon down there.

Big wildfire in Southern California right now. Almost unheard of in early February. This is going to be an UGLY summer in SoCal.

[Aslkahuna]

Even the most optimistic model has at best minor rainfall from the ULL off the CA coast and that only over SE AZ. However, with TUS having a PW of only 0.05in this morning, we are going to have to have something much stronger than what we have to be able produce anything down here.

Steve

[bob rulz]

Wow, I couldn't even imagine how dry it is down there. Sounds really bad. I live near the southern edge of where all of the Pacific storms have been coming in, so we've been near normal. But no rain in more than 4 months?! And none on the horizon? That's just unimaginable to me.

[arizonasooner]

Wow, the smoke tonight over Hermosa Beach was unbelivable... There was an incredible sunset over the ocean tonight due to the fires east of LA...

And then the wife ("socklessblonde" on another board) tells me that there are fires in AZ too!! Jeez!

[azsnowman]

It does not look the dry spell will end anytime soon down there.

Big wildfire in Southern California right now. Almost unheard of in early February. This is going to be an UGLY summer in SoCal.

Don't have to WAIT for SUMMER,things are ALREADY "UGLY" here, at THIS rate, we'll be GONE (burned out of house and home) before summer arrives

May God have Mercy on us

Dennis

[azsnowman]

I DO NOT like the sound of the last sentence

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO ARIZONA FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 7H TEMP DROPS TO -14 (GFS) OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOME PLACES IN THE NORTHEAST COULD SEE A 20 DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPS BY SATURDAY. THE STRENGTHENING OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR COULD CAUSE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.



OH and BTW.........the "February Fire" burning near Payson/Pine/Strawberry area is NOW at 1550 acres........cold temps last night allowed the fire to grow by ONLY 50 acres, wait until SUNRISE.......they are expecting to fire to grow to 2000 acres today

Dennis

[BReb]

Looks like some precipitation is heading into southern Arizona, moving north. Hopefully some of that will reach you guys.

[arizonasooner]

I'm looking out the window right now in North Phoenix.

Just high clouds.

[Aslkahuna]

Based upon the upper air pattern and the location and movement of the ULL in northern Sonora, any precip that falls in AZ will be chiefly in the SE corner of the state possibly getting into the Whites but doubtful. The big problem is going to be the dewpoint crash and winds with the backdoor this weekend. BTW, 90% of what you see on radar in AZ is virga.

Steve

[wxmann_91]

Ironically, the only drops of rain I have seen since October were on the day of the Rose Parade in Los Angeles.