Recent News Article - 2006 Hurricane Season

[Mattie]

This article came from the Livingston Parish News.

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Expert tells state to brace for more storms

By Sarah Bartlett


WAFB's Chief Meteorologist Jay Grymes shows his audience the trends in the number of hurricanes to make landfall from 1900-2005 at the Greater Denham Springs Chamber of Commerce meeting on Wednesday. (News photo by David Normand)
DENHAM SPRINGS - Jay Grymes, head meteorologist for WAFB Channel 9 and former state climatologist, told the Greater Denham Springs Chamber of Commerce Wednesday that 2006 could very well be an even busier hurricane season than 2005.

Grymes posed the question, “Are hurricanes becoming a greater threat?” to his audience at Forrest Grove Plantation.

According to Grymes, Louisiana has a 60-65 percent chance of a named storm making landfall in any given year and Louisiana can match the Florida panhandle, which is considered to be the hurricane hot spot, and North Carolina when it comes to the number of hurricanes and tropical storms that make landfall.

The Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity from 1900-2005 longterm average of storms per year is between nine and 10, and 10 of the last 11 years, have been above average, Grymes said, meaning Louisiana may be in for another bumpy ride next year.

“Our threat is greater than most people, including decision makers, realize,” Grymes said.

Another noticeable trend, Grymes said, is the cycles of water temperature in the Atlantic.

According to Grymes, warmer water equals more hurricanes and a difference of one to four degrees may be enough to create more hurricanes.

Grymes then went on to sum up last year's hurricane season.

“There are no adjectives I can use to describe what our state has been through,” Grymes said of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

He also noted that Hurricane Wilma, the 21st named storm and sixth major hurricane of 2005, set numerous records for both strength and seasonal activity.

At its peak, it was the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. It was the only time three Category 5 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic in one year.

Wilma made several landfalls, with the most destructive effects felt in the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico, Cuba, and the U.S. state of Florida.

Grymes also spoke of the monetary damage of the hurricanes in 2005.

“Katrina replaces what Camille was to us 18 months ago,” Grymes said, referring to a 1969 killer storm. “As far as cost goes, Katrina far outweighs any other storm.”

It is estimated that the cost of Katrina's damage is around $75 billion, making it the costliest storm in history.

Andrew, which made landfall in 1992, was the second most expensive storm in history with an estimated $45 billion in damages, followed by Wilma with $12.2 billion of damage and then Rita with an estimated $9 billion worth of damage.

Grymes made no secret of his belief that things are just heating up, so to speak, as far as hurricanes go.

“We are not only seeing more storms, but we're seeing more storms form in the Atlantic and make landfall,”Grymes said. “When the big one does come, it will do even more damage to what New Orleans is or will be.

“Yes, evidence suggests that storm counts will continue to run above the longterm average due to an extending warm cycle,” Grymes continued. “Supporters of global warming are taking that to the bank.”

Grymes replaced Mike Graham in 2003 as head meteorologist at Channel 9. He also teaches an introduction to weather class at Louisiana State University and manages The LSU AgCenter Louisiana Agriclimatic Information System (LAIS).

Grymes closed his speech with the forecast of Dr. William Gray, head of The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University.

Gray, who has worked in the observational and theoretical aspects of tropical meteorological research for more than 40 years, has gained international attention, publishes his yearly hurricane forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and the East Coast every December.

This past December, Gray released his forecast for 2006, predicting 17 named storms, compared to a predicted 11 in 2005; 9 hurricanes compared to a predicted 6 in 2005.

“That's the meteorology,” Grymes said in closing. “Now you folks have to deal with the economy.”

[Audrey2Katrina]

Andrew, which made landfall in 1992, was the second most expensive storm in history with an estimated $45 billion in damages, followed by Wilma with $12.2 billion of damage and then Rita with an estimated $9 billion worth of damage.

I think the author of the article is doing a little opining of her own, JMO, and her figures, which fortunately are neither official nor accurate, and are not those of Dr. Grymes, they do not cite that the damages for Andrew were $24-25 billion; perhaps adjusting for inflation they're the $45B listed, but then listing Wilma and Rita as the next two in dollar damages, I believe, is premature, if not outright erroneous, for if she's going to adjust for inflation--I believe three others, Hugo, Charley, and Ivan all had damages totalling more than what she lists as numbers 3, 4, and 5. The figure cited for Katrina is probably underestimated at this point (currently ranging from $70B to as much as 150B) but that issue is moot.

Gray's forecasts are always being adjusted, he did predict four major hurricanes in 2005 and EIGHT hurricanes (not 6) as far back as June 1, the beginning of last season. That we have entered a more active cycle is undeniable in light of clear evidence and current patterns observed--and yes, Global Warming activists are indeed taking it to the bank--thankfully MOST meteorologists dispute that GW is the cause, but that a "cycle" which has been repeated throughout history is simply beginning anew.

An interesting article, all in all; but IMHO it's an alarmist one based largely on the 2005 calamitous season. No one should underestimate the power of these storms or ignore the implications their damage potentials possess; that said all we can do is keep people informed and hope reason and common sense prevail. I guess we'll all have to see what 2006 brings.

A2K