It was TOO good to be true

[azsnowman]

Should I be suprised? NO This will make #19 in a ROW that we've missed out on ANY kind of moisture, I swear.......God must be REALLY P.O'd at us for SOMETHING ..........ah well, maybe we'll have the "Big ONE" (fire) and be forced to move, any idea where to go? I want to move SOMEWHERE where it ACTUALLY RAINS, SNOWS or SOMETHING


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

HOWEVER...THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO ALL OF THIS...AND IT IS A BIG FLY...IS THE RESULTING STABLE LAPSE RATES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE H85-5 LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STABLE DURING THIS PERIOD...BELOW 6 DEGREES C PER KM...UP UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS IS BUT WILL NEED TO SPEND MORE TIME INVESTIGATING THIS ISSUE. CK

Dennis

[CaptinCrunch]

Don't give up Dennis, We got some much needed rain here in NTX over the weekend. I recorded .87" on Friday and a whopping 3.68" all on Saturday morning and then had a very light steady rain till around 4pm, then it was over. Forecast is for another good chance of rain in here friday, this could be a Severe Weather Day for us.

[Extremeweatherguy]

looking at the forecast for different places in AZ...it looks like your best shot of rain comes tomorrow. Don't give up hope yet.

[azsnowman]

I'm trying my BEST to keep a positive attitude but at this point in time, I can't........watching every single living tree, shrub, plant even the drought TOLERANT plants are dying in alarming numbers. I talked with one of the foresters today from Apache Sitgraves National Forest today at the police dept (they were there putting the final touches on the evacuation plan for the most extreme fire season that anyone alive has or will ever see), their BEST estimate is by the time summer rolls around, a mortality rate of 85% will hit the White MOuntains, which in real life means, only 2-3 trees per ACRE will survive, leaving the White Mountains BARREN of ANY substantial flora for future generations.........talk about an Apocalyptic scenario coming true

[sprites]

Calfornia had a similar situation where there wasn't any rain for years. It was bone dry and nothng to squelch the heat. I feel your pain.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think AZ will get rain soon...besides I bet yall will have one hell of a monsoon season (just a guess but Im hoping greatly for yall)

[Cowhide]

sprites, I remember those California Ads

"Now southern California is entering it's 8th year drought, please save water"

But it really wasn't warm at all, it was just cold and dry for many winters.

I think what azdustman is really worried about is residual dryness, that is even though the upper levels of the atmospheres has water in the forecast, because it has been so dry for so long, below the surface of the atmosphere near the city of Phoenix, the air acts like a giant vacuum and sucks up all the available moisture and draws it right back up in the air again (evaporates before it touches the ground) I forgot what that's called. Verga? )and moves elsewhere.

If you look at the satellite archives you can actually see that each time a storm tries to make it to Arizona it falls apart and dies. But the storm somehow manages to magically reappear again near Texas. That's because the RH has to be near 100% to get the full effect.
It's going to take a torrential downpour to get that city back on track, but one big storm like this one could do it.

I have a friend from Phoenix who says it's not only dry, but the air quality is just awful for winter.

[Extremeweatherguy]

60% chance of rain for your area tonight. Lets hope it plays out!

[azsnowman]

As normal........the system is starting to pull to the N-NE, ONCE again missing US It's a LONG time till NEXT winter and I highly DOUBT that it will even snow THEN, or rain, or sleet, or SOMETHING It just makes me SICK to know that there's rain SOMEWHERE in the world and I can't get a freekin' DROP!

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

This was the storm that two weeks ago was supposed to be Noah's Ark for AZ at which point I was downplaying it big time. The problem is that the lower layers are too dry and it will take to long to moisten up. As for making up for the drought, it would take 20 feet of snow in the mountains near Flag just to break even and about 10-15 feet around Pinetop-not likely to happen in a single storm nor are we about to make up 40 inches of rain which is our drought deficit since 1996. Finally, in order to get the moisture plume in here with SW flow, the rain has to extend well down the Baja as rain in San Diego will be sent north of Phoenix. In the meantime the planes are flying our first big wildfire of the season down here in Cochise County(reminds me of 3 uears ago when we had a biggee on March 1st). The P-3 just flew over the house headed to FHU for a refill and the P-2 just headed out.

Steve

Steve

[Cowhide]

Prolong periods of dryness creates it's own weather.
What's happening is, because the surface of AZ has been so dry, it's created a sort of ridge of high pressure therefor storms bypassing the state. It's not a coincidence that it's missing the area.

[azsnowman]

Steve, I'm sorry to hear about the fire.....I read it online today, I'm afraid we are next and THIS one will BURN US TO THE GROUND.......my only wish, I wish it would happen and SOON so we can get it OVER with and make the decission of whether to rebuild or move somewhere where there is MOISTURE.......

Dennis

[arizonasooner]

The thing that bothers me about this current system is that it might spit out enough sprinkles to officially break "the streak" with a trace or 0.01" at the most here in PHX. Then we could go until August again until real rain.

[azsnowman]

Don't count on rain in August me Amigo........we are NOT going to receive ANY kind of moisture until October, mark my words!

Dennis

[brunota2003]

Dennis...you WILL get rain sometime in March...if I am right, then I'm right...if I'm wrong, then sorry I failed you...

[arizonasooner]

we are NOT going to receive ANY kind of moisture until October, mark my words!

Oh, that would be very bad. That would be a full year here in PHX if that happenned.

Technically, we just got a trace or so at our house in Glendale in the last hour. I am underwhelmed.

[azsnowman]

Dennis...you WILL get rain sometime in March...if I am right, then I'm right...if I'm wrong, then sorry I failed you...

Thanks for the positive attitude, we in Arizona need something to hold on to, prayers don't work. A mountain wide prayer vigal was held 3 weeks ago, 28 churches got together and held a MEGA prayer vigal.......did it work? Obviously not.

Dennis

[azsnowman]

This just in!!!! Imagine this!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

SKIES CLEAR OUT THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...BASICALLY SKIMMING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE FRIDAY. THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THIS STORM WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

[wxmann_91]

The drought is certainly a problem. Right here it was suppose to be a big rain event with 1-3" along the coast, but most regions along the coast only receive about three-quarters of an inch. I noticed how yesterday afternoon, rain struggled to reach the sfc, and most was virga, until the lower layers moistened enough during the evening. Just goes to show that despite that our drought is nothing compared to the situation in AZ, even a small drought can decrease rain amounts from a storm.

[Aslkahuna]

Which is why I wouldn't count too much on the monsoon as the drought could dry it out as it did in 2004. The fire is along the Border and the local newspaper reported that they have pull the crews off the lines at night for their own safety because it's too dangerous to be close to the Border at night.

Steve