WPAC "inactivity"???

[senorpepr]

I dedicate this post to our weather-yahoos that are tearing up over the “lack of activity” for the WPAC and to our friends and loved-ones who may reside throughout the WPAC basin.

Some have been harping over how “inactive” the WPAC has been this season. To press time, there has been only one tropical depression that the JTWC has warned on (meanwhile, there have been two depressions officially) with no tropical storms.

Some even are making connections on how the “inactivity” for January and February in the WPAC will relate to the Atlantic this hurricane season.

Well, consider this post a “WPAC’s First Half of the Season and Associated Tropical Activity ‘Did You Know…’” However, before I begin I want to point out that my figures come from a 30-year climatological period spanning the years 1976 to 2005.

Through the end of January, the WPAC should see 0.6 named storms.
Through the end of February, the WPAC should see 0.8 named storms.
Through the end of March, the WPAC should see 1.3 named storms.
Through the end of April, the WPAC should see 2.1 named storms.
Through the end of May, the WPAC should see 3.5 named storms.
Through the end of June, the WPAC should 5.3 named storms.

Okay… so here we are after the first week of March with no named storms. On average, we should see around 0.8-0.9. Would you call that “inactivity?” I wouldn’t—it’s well within normal. Plus, I think many throughout eastern Asia could enjoy a break from the tropical cyclones.

[Aslkahuna]

Those who harp about WPAC inactivity have no clue as to what really happens there obviously. I had the honor of having a Grandstand seat in the Philippines for 9 years.

Steve

[HurricaneBill]

People are saying the WPAC has been inactive?!

Um......I always thought the WPAC doesn't usually start up until mid-April.

[P.K.]

There have been two TDs mentioned in the MetArea forecasts, however I only remember seeing actual advisories on this latest one.

[AussieMark]

even some very active years only had minimal activity in this point in time

i.e
1990 (31 systems [only had 1 by first week of March])
1991 (31 systems [only had 1 by first week of March])
1992 (32 systems [only had 1 by first week of March])
1993 (37 systems [only had 2 by first week of March])
1994 (39 systems [only had 1 by first week of March])
1995 (34 systems [only had 1 by first week of March])
1996 (44 systems [only had 1 by first week of March])
1997 (34 systems [only had 1 by first week of March])
1999 (35 systems [only had 2 by first week of March])
2000 (35 systems [only had 0 by first week of March])
2001 (33 systems [only had 1 by first week of March])
2002 (31 systems [only had 2 by first week of March])
2004 (34 systems [only had 1 by first week of March])