Needed rain for islands as wave passes

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 03, 2003 6:48 am

The tropical wave 93L invest has increased it's convection overnight as less shear is in that area as the TUTT trough has moved west now in the Bahamas and Cuba.So let's see what will happen with it but for sure rain will fall in the islands that need it as they are in a drought.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I am watching that upper low moving west around Cuba because it will enter the GOM in comming days and a surface trough may form that may form a surface low so GOMERS watch for that this weekend and I heard Steve Lyons elud to that fact.

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jul 03, 2003 7:15 am

cycloneye wrote:The tropical wave 93L invest has increased it's convection overnight as less shear is in that area as the TUTT trough has moved west now in the Bahamas and Cuba.So let's see what will happen with it but for sure rain will fall in the islands that need it as they are in a drought.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I am watching that upper low moving west around Cuba because it will enter the GOM in comming days and a surface trough may form that may form a surface low so GOMERS watch for that this weekend and I heard Steve Lyons elud to that fact.

Great!!! Two of my favorite weather resources are telling me to watch the GOM for development!!! That sounds ominous to me!!!! Guees I need to double the watch!!

You are of course right Luis. This type of situation is common in the GOM and has been one of our sources of storms more than once in the past.

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 03, 2003 7:35 am

It will have to wait till next week..I am on vacation till friday next week..I will be gone from the puter for 4 days or so!!!!! :wink:

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jul 03, 2003 8:44 am

LOL Rainband - Tropical weather don't wait for anyone! So do GOM'ers really have a concern or is it one fo this might of - could of or should of type systems.

Please let me know.

Patricia

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 03, 2003 9:03 am

ticka1 wrote:LOL Rainband - Tropical weather don't wait for anyone! So do GOM'ers really have a concern or is it one fo this might of - could of or should of type systems.

Please let me know.

Patricia

LOL it was just a thought :lol:

GulfBreezer · #6 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Thu Jul 03, 2003 1:04 pm

Ticka, the last few updates I have listened to and the local mets are all indicating that this system will move into the GOM within 36 hours. What it will enter AS? Noone has mentioned anything just yet that I have heard. I think regardless, the GC States are in for more rain, no matter how you slice it.

Colin · #7 Postby **Colin** » Thu Jul 03, 2003 1:10 pm

I agree, GulfBreezer... definitley looks like the Gulf States will receive more rainfall, which is exactly what they DON'T need! :o All you down there stay dry and keep us updated...

#8 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jul 03, 2003 1:22 pm

GulfBreezer wrote:Ticka, the last few updates I have listened to and the local mets are all indicating that this system will move into the GOM within 36 hours. What it will enter AS? Noone has mentioned anything just yet that I have heard. I think regardless, the GC States are in for more rain, no matter how you slice it.

What system are you talking about Gulf Breezer? I know of no system of any consequence that is set to enter the GOM.

We do have the low level trough that is sitting along the NW GOM TX/LA coast but that is it. And it is puring rain right nowhere at my house in Houston. Currently falling at 2.44"/hr. rate to my SE near my wifes office!! Not that heavy here but heavy.

#9 Postby **wx247** » Thu Jul 03, 2003 1:55 pm

I believe (correct me if I am wrong... not trying to put words in anyone's mouth) that she is referring to the upper low in the Carib. It is moving west and is expected to enter the GOM. Dr. Lyons mentioned that systems like this with its trough can sometimes spin up tropical systems.

Lindaloo · #10 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jul 03, 2003 2:28 pm

Well I must say that we received 2 inches yesterday morning. And it had the nerve to drop 2 more inches on us again this morning. I had to stake two trees yesterday evening for fear they would fall into my privacy fence and crash onto the house. Hopefully our rigging (lol) will hold them until I can have them cut down.

#11 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jul 03, 2003 3:23 pm

Thanks! After looking at the sats I figured that is what was being referred to. And to say the least Dr. Lyons knows just a little more about this stuff than I do.

It is definitely something to be followed to make sure it doesn't pull a fast one on us and spin up something. None of the models I have checked spin anything up for a good while fortunately. Doesn't mean it won't happen though.

Also following the 93L invest with interest as it is still trying to generate convection even though it has lost it's low pressure area. Once the ULL mentioned above moves further N and W its' influence on 93L(N shear)will lessen and we could see some more attempts at development from this one. Not predicting anything yet, but watching for sure.

weatherlover427 · #12 Postby **weatherlover427** » Thu Jul 03, 2003 7:17 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2003

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE ARE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

Needed rain for islands as wave passes

Needed rain for islands as wave passes

Re: Convection has increased east of the islands

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