SEVERE weather for Texas....

[wxman22]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN BASE OF AMPLIFYING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH BY EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
U.S./MEXICAN PLATEAU REGION IS STILL A SOURCE OF LARGE UNCERTAINTY.
HOWEVER...MOST MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT IN
NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EITHER LATE NEXT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.

WITH CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S.
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN LARGE STRONG SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS APPEARS LOW. THUS...SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO SEEMS LIKELY TO
REMAIN LIMITED..EXCEPT...PERHAPS...ACROSS TEXAS...WHERE CONVECTIVELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE. RISK FOR SEVERE
BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED STORMS MAY BE CONFINED TO THE PECOS VALLEY AND
HILL COUNTRY INTO GULF COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 03/15/2006


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cheezyWXguy]

looks like sombody beet me too it

[jasons2k]

Maybe we'll finally get something

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
333 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006

PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF/UK FOR MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS IS THE BEST LOOKING SYSTEM IN A LONG TIME. A SPLITTING JET...STRONG 850 CONVERGENCE AND DECENT MOISTURE WILL HELP TO MAKE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING A BUSY TIME.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006

POPS STILL FCST TO CLIMB ON MON AS A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW/TROF SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. ECMWF HAS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TAKE FOR MON. EXT GUIDANCE A BIT FUZZY ATTM - GFS GOING WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS/TROFS FOLLOWING IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE MON SYSTEM (NEXT ONE AOA THUR)WHILST THE ECMWF IS A TAD MORE RIDGEY. 41

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
821 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006

.UPDATE...
BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOW APPROACHING THE AUSTIN TO NEW
BRAUNFELS AREA IS HEADING TOWARD OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. IF THIS
ACTIVITY CAN STAY INTACT (AND THAT'S PROBABLY A BIG IF)...IT LOOKS
TO BE IN OUR AREA BEFORE 10 PM. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPDATED OUR
PACKAGE TO RAISE POPS JUST A TAD UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STORMS.
RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING WEST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI. SOME OF THIS STUFF COULD GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS OUR SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO RISE (HAVE ALSO MADE SOME GRID ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE DEWPOINTS ON
THIS UPDATE).

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS LEFT UNTOUCHED. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT
ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON PER
SPC'S SWODY2. THE NAM 16/00Z SOUNDING FORECASTS NO CAP...CAPES AROUND
2300 AND LI'S CLOSE TO -7 FOR IAH AT 21Z. 42

[wx247]

And the storm season in Texas begins...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Another outbreak?

[ROCK]

we need the rain....I am tired of all the red flag warnings....

[cheezyWXguy]

I cant wait to get a ral hail/ wind storm...I havent gotten one in yrs...its soo fun tho...except for when u get a tornado out of it...then its really scary! (y am I telling yall this...especially yall in the midwest...u obviously know where im comin from)

[wxmann_91]

Another outbreak?

Probably not. Unlike last time, moisture return will be a big issue.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the Avn/gfs shows a low pressure with alot of cold air behind it. With warm air in front of it. Seems like a good set up for something. Now we need to watch for moisture.

[TexasStooge]

Another outbreak?

Not as bad as the Midwest one.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0402 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006
   
   VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
   
   THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOW GENERALLY SIMILAR...
   INDICATING THAT A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL DIG
   OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PACIFIC...FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE
   HEELS OF A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU BY EARLY
   SUNDAY.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO FORCE THE CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE
   SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE IT
   BECOMES SHEARED AND ACCELERATES EASTWARD THROUGH CONFLUENT REGIME
   INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
   
   DEEP SURFACE LOW COULD DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
   DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING SUPPORTIVE
   OF MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN CONVECTIVELY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
   
   THEREAFTER...MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...WITH ANTECEDENT COLD SURFACE
   RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SLOW TO WEAKEN/ERODE. THE
   PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS INTO AND
   THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
   HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ON A
   COASTAL FRONT PROGGED TO DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
   STATES...BEFORE A NEW LOW FORMS OVER SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
   THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL JET
   STREAK...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE OUT OF THE PLATEAU REGION IN
   PHASE WITH SOUTHERN POLAR LOW...AND SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE
   MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY.
   SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IS ANTICIPATED OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
   SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND RISK OF
   SEVERE STORMS IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/16/2006

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What's a Thuderstorm? Refresh my memory since it's been along time since I've seen or heard one.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hope this does not affect my flight back to Houston on Monday!

[jasons2k]

Pretty disappointed today. The NWS said our convective temp. was 78. As it got into the 80's I was so excited - thinking it was going to pour. It's hit 86 here and nothing. Boy they really missed the boat today.

[cheezyWXguy]

I cant wait for the severe weathr this weekend ...its gonna so freakin awesome and Ill try to take some good pics

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
635 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006

.UPDATE...
06Z GFS80 SERIES ROLL IN WITH LESS DIURNAL TRENDS FOR SATURDAY THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE DECIDED TO CLOSE THE GAP ON MIN-MAX-MIN RANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO...THE 06Z GFS CONFIRMS
THAT THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD RECEIVE THE LEAST
RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER SUNDAY NIGHT COULD MAKE UP THE
DIFFERENCE AS SQUALL LINE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MARCH THROUGH THE
CWA. NEW ZONES WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

WET AND COOL...THAT/S JUST WHAT NORTH TEXAS NEEDS!  75


&&

.DISCUSSION...
340 AM.
YESTERDAYS FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOW POSITIONED SOUTH OF
THE CWA WITH A DRY AIRMASS RESIDING OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THE
FRONT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY AS DEEPENING LEE-SIDE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE COULD SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CWA-WIDE SATURDAY.  MOST WILL BE
HAILERS. CWA-WIDE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH NIGHT AS A TRIPLE-POINT SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
THROUGH THE REGION.

TODAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST AND WEST...AND
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN ON LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
PRESSURE ASCENT EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE OVER 1.5 INCHES...EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTH
WHERE AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS THAN 1 INCH. AREAS NORTH OF I-20 COULD SEE
2-3 INCHES BY MONDAY MORNING. FLOODING IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RISES IN STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE
LIKELY. PRECIPITATION WORDING WAS MODIFIED OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA TO
REMOVE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. DO NOT SEE MUCH DIURNAL SWING
IN TEMPS SATURDAY DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND EAST WINDS.

NEXT WEEK...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS EXIT NORTH TEXAS MONDAY.
COLDER AIR POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST POISED
TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. 1000-850 THICKNESSES FALL
TO BELOW 1315 TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CWA INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE LOW TEMPS AT AND BELOW FREEZING
WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH OF I-20...EXPECT ACROSS THE METROPLEX.
THIS AIRMASS WILL ALSO HOLD HIGHS DOWN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  BY
THURSDAY..ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

[jasons2k]

Now it looks like Sunday night instead of Monday for us.

[vbhoutex]

What's a Thuderstorm? Refresh my memory since it's been along time since I've seen or heard one.

Huh?? What's that? A what?

[Portastorm]

Knowing our luck lately, we'll just get some lightning that will spark more wildfires and the rain will go somewhere else ...