Northeast Hurricane expected ????

[fwbbreeze]

If this has already been posted please delete!! I know how many feel about accuweather, it's an interesting read none the less.

US Northeast due for major hurricane: AccuWeather
Mon Mar 20, 2006 1:04 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The 2006 hurricane season will be more active than normal and could bring a devastating storm to the U.S. Northeast, private forecaster AccuWeather said on Monday.

The outlook comes after the most costly hurricane season on record in 2005, with storms crippling New Orleans and other parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast and briefly knocking out a quarter of domestic fuel production.

"There are now indications that the Northeast will experience a hurricane larger and more powerful than anything that region has seen in a long time," said Ken Reeves, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.com.

"The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun," said Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather.com's chief hurricane forecaster.

The current storm cycle and above-normal water temperatures in the Atlantic are reminiscent of the pattern that produced the 1938 hurricane that struck Providence, Rhode Island, killing 600 people, Bastardi said.

"The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane, and with the weather patterns and hydrology we're seeing in the oceans, the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the Northeast is not a question of if but when," he said.

The Texas coast from Corpus Christi to the Louisiana border is also likely to be the target of higher than normal hurricane activity over the next 10 years, according to the forecast.

Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans and the Mississippi coast last August with winds above 135 mph and a 30-foot-high storm surge, causing more than $60 billion in damage.

Katrina was followed by Hurricanes Rita in Texas and Wilma in Florida. Each wreaked more than $10 billion of insured losses, making 2005 the most expensive year for hurricanes ever.

Bastardi said this year's storm activity will be above normal, but could be less active than 2005.

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsartic ... xml&rpc=22

fwbbreeze

[Steve]

I thought Joe didn't usually put out his prelims until much closer to the start of the season.

Steve

[Steve]

Here's the link to (cr)accuweather's story. It's a bit more ambiguous than what Reuters is reporting (at least for my money).

Steve

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.a ... age=nehurr

[CHRISTY]

accuweather did really bad in most of there preditions last year!so any information coming out of them to me cant really be cant be taken to seriously...statements like these should not be put out because all there doing is alarming people!every person has there own opinion on what 06 might bring!we are still 4-6 months from the heart of the hurricane season no one knows what is going to happen.

[terstorm1012]

yea I did read that too this afternoon.

Sounds like hype, though it also sounds like they've been reading Talking Tropics hehehe, we've been doing much of that the last few months!

[vbhoutex]

yea I did read that too this afternoon.

Sounds like hype, though it also sounds like they've been reading Talking Tropics hehehe, we've been doing much of that the last few months!

You beat me to it!! And we do have a couple of Accuweather Mets as members here. HHHMMMM??????

[terstorm1012]

not to be a jerk...but after really sitting down reading it, the article doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. It reads a lot like the scenarios we've put out there.

It'll help the general public though for their knowledge of the possible situation, for sure, which is important. (That is, if they haven't seen the Weather Channel series.)

[wxwatcher91]

uh basically the report just has some locations overdue slapped down. their only back up is that the locations are overdue and that we are in an active cycle.

(of course Im liking the hype though! all we New Englanders can get in the hurricane season)

[Steve]

>>accuweather did really bad in most of there preditions last year!

They did good in the Landfall Intensity department though. When Joe busted out with his early August update that 2005 would probably trump 2004, many people weren't buying it. He missed on some of us landfall intensity by state, but he did fairly well overall. We'll see what happens since this is a company release and not his own.

Ters,

You're not being a jerk. The article doesn't really say anything. As I said, Accuweather's release is much more ambiguous than what Reuters is saying in their review of it. Everything is more "might/could/possible" than it is or isn't going to happen.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

its basically a whole bunch of nothing and I wish I hadn't wasted my last 10 seconds reading their drivel again

[Weatherfreak000]

its basically a whole bunch of nothing and I wish I hadn't wasted my last 10 seconds reading their drivel again

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[vbhoutex]

Of course the part about Texas made the front page of the Houston Chronicle today!

[Brent]

its basically a whole bunch of nothing and I wish I hadn't wasted my last 10 seconds reading their drivel again

Same here.

[fwbbreeze]

its basically a whole bunch of nothing and I wish I hadn't wasted my last 10 seconds reading their drivel again

Same here.

I dont know about the rest of yall....but I can feel the love in this thread

fwbbreeze

[angelwing]

its basically a whole bunch of nothing and I wish I hadn't wasted my last 10 seconds reading their drivel again

Same here.

I dont know about the rest of yall....but I can feel the love in this thread

fwbbreeze

[brunota2003]

Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans and the Mississippi coast last August with winds above 135 mph and a 30-foot-high storm surge, causing more than $60 billion in damage.

Last I checked Katrina was a 120 at landfall...has that changed since the report came out or is it just me? Also, last I checked it was a Cat 3...not a mid 4...surprised none of the wx forecasters or anyone else noticed that...and I didnt even read the article...stupid people trying to hype it up...dont listen to any predictions anyone but the official source makes...(NOAA) basically Accuwx plays spin the bottle with areas that are overdue...(remember you heard it here first...)

[tornadotony]

Wow, is it just me, or did they forget (leave out) Gloria AND Bob and add a bunch of TSs, cat 1s, and cat 2s and call them major storms on their "hurricane coupling" chart? That report is pseudoscience and nothing else. No wonder not-so-Accuweather is made up of a bunch of crappy meteorologists hanging on to their careers by the hairs of their chinny-chin chins.

[terstorm1012]

its basically a whole bunch of nothing and I wish I hadn't wasted my last 10 seconds reading their drivel again

Same here.

I dont know about the rest of yall....but I can feel the love in this thread

fwbbreeze

Hey! I was bein' nice! :-D

[wxman57]

I do agree with their basic premise, that the long-term pattern (warm Atlantic, cooling east Pacific) is similar to what was observed during the 1940s through the 1960s. During that period the east U.S. coast from Florida through Virginia experienced a significant increase in landfalling major hurricanes vs. the cool AMO phases from 1900-1925 and 1970-1994. So we might expect to see increasing landfalls in that region in the coming decade. I've been saying the same thing in my talks for years.

Is that a big news flash? Probably not.

[Derecho]

He missed on some of us landfall intensity by state, but he did fairly well overall. Steve

THIS is "fairly well overall?" (from 2005)

Private forecaster eyes Carolinas
NOAA officials said they could not predict how many of the storms would hit the U.S. coast. The season typically peaks in August.
However, Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist with private forecasting company AccuWeather, predicted most of the remaining storms this year will take a more easterly path than the June and July storms that entered the Gulf of Mexico.
"The most action will be from Aug. 15 to Oct. 15 along the Eastern Seaboard. I'm targeting the Carolinas for the worst," Bastardi said. "Also, there will be (landfalls) in New England and the Florida coast."

Of course, when the Carolinas FINALLY got hit by Ophelia, AccuWeather and Bastardi couldn't help themselves from hyping another storm into the Gulf and failed to call that one, in a rather delcious irony.