Palm Beach Post Articule

[cycloneye]

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... _0326.html



Nothing that is really new to open eyebrolls as there are many things that we know one example when they say about some good news about the data showing less warm Atlantic than 2005 at this time but anyway it's interesting to read this.

[JPmia]

The article mentions a quote from an FSU researcher regarding La Nina patterns and hurricane tracks. He said that during La Nina, hurricanes tend to hit the Carolinas and points northward. Is this true? I've never heard that idea around here. Any comments?

[webke]

I am curious also about of the statement that la-Nina tends to turns storms into the Carolinas, obviously because thats where I live. I do not want to see any area hit by a hurricane especially the gulf coast after the beating it took last year, is there any statistics that back up what the article says.
Thanks

[greeng13]

How do El Niño and La Nina influence the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons?


The change in winds with height is referred to as vertical wind shear. Hurricane formation requires the winds to be fairly uniform throughout the atmosphere, meaning that they require low vertical wind shear. Hurricanes cannot form if the vertical wind shear is too high (above about 8 ms-1).

Dr. William Gray at the Colorado State University has pioneered research efforts leading to the discovery of El Niño and La Niña impacts on Atlantic hurricane activity.

El Niño contributes to more eastern Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic hurricanes. La Niña contributes to fewer eastern Pacific hurricanes and more Atlantic hurricanes.

El Niño produces westerly wind departures at upper levels of the atmosphere and easterly wind departures at lower levels, across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and tropical Atlantic. Over the eastern Pacific these wind patterns are opposite those normally seen in the region, and results in lower vertical wind shear. The eastern Pacific hurricane season is typically more active during El Niño because of the expanded area of low vertical wind shear in which hurricanes can form.

Across the tropical Atlantic, these same wind departures increase the total vertical wind shear, often to levels far too high for hurricanes to form. There tend to be fewer Atlantic hurricanes during El Niño because of this expanded area of high vertical wind shear.

La Niña produces easterly wind departures at upper levels of the atmosphere and westerly wind departures at lower levels, across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and tropical Atlantic. Over the eastern Pacific these wind patterns are in phase with those normally seen in the region, resulting in higher vertical wind shear. The eastern Pacific hurricane season is typically less active during La Niña because of the expanded area of high vertical wind shear.

Across the tropical Atlantic these same wind patterns are opposite to those normally observed, and result in lower vertical wind shear. There tend to be more Atlantic hurricanes during La Niña because of this expanded area of low vertical wind shear.

El Niño and La Niña also influence where the Atlantic hurricanes form. During El Niño fewer hurricanes and major hurricanes develop in the deep Tropics from African easterly waves. During La Niña more hurricanes form in the deep Tropics from African easterly waves. These systems have a much greater likelihood of becoming major hurricanes, and of eventually threatening the U.S. and Caribbean Islands.

The chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience a hurricane increase substantially during La Niña, and decrease during El Niño.

basically as it seems to me (AND I AM NOT AN EXPERT BY ANY MEANS) since more of them form as Cape Verde storms they might be more likely to hit the Eastern Seaboard/Carolinas than the GOM....am i right???? dunno

from this page...all you want to know about El Nino and La Nina

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensofaq.shtml

[CHRISTY]

with la nina around more hurricanes tend to form and somtimes due to lack of shear sometimes allow for long trackers but my thinking is as the coming months come along it will be key to see were the bermuda high will set up!so far it seems like an 04 pattern were storms are stearded into florida and the gulf of mexico but this type of pattern can change at any time so we just have to wait and see what developes.

[webke]

Here's a preview of the meetings going on in South Carolina

Sanford wants local response to any storms
By Tonya Root
The Sun News

Local emergency officials and coastal residents need to be prepared for a hurricane to make landfall along the state's coast, Gov. Mark Sanford said Monday during the opening luncheon of the state's 2006 Hurricane/Emergency Management workshop at Kingston Plantation.
Sanford also told the record crowd of attendees that he wants a local response to a disaster - not a team of federal government first responders like in New Orleans last year with Hurricane Katrina.
"You all as locals know best what's happening in your communities. If we have another Katrina, I think there will be efforts to federalize the response," Sanford told the group of more than 500 emergency officials.
Local officials and the state's National Guard should be called on to manage responses to disasters like a hurricane, he said.
"If someone steps in from Kansas and doesn't know the back way from Socastee to Conway, you've lost some time. There's a whole fabric of relationships that doesn't exist among people from out of town," Sanford said after the lunch. "The federal government can be a part of the response. It's just a question of who's in charge of the response, who's in command."
Maj. Gen. Stanhope Spears, the state's adjutant general, said 80 percent of the equipment and about 400,000 soldiers from the state's National Guard are ready to respond to a disaster if needed. Officials also are putting together a statewide phone service called REACH. The Internet-based communication system would warn residents of an emergency or evacuations. The system could send a telephone message, fax or e-mail to all residents or those living in a specific area if a hurricane threatens.
"All of our hard work has paid off: South Carolina is on the cutting edge of emergency management preparedness," Spears said.
Sanford agreed and said state and local emergency management plans that are in place are well-planned and can mitigate a disaster, but he is concerned about the probability that a major storm will make landfall this year in South Carolina. There are nine hurricanes - including five major storms of Category 3 or higher - forecast for the 2006 season, Sanford said.
"Let's do the math. Florida has been hit, the Gulf Coast has been hit, Texas has been hit, North Carolina has been hit. ... The one spot that hasn't gotten hit recently is South Carolina," Sanford said. "Residents should take personal action when a storm threatens and not wait for a voluntary action from the governor or a mandatory action from the governor."
Stacy Stewart, a forecaster with the National Hurricane Center, told the group that last season's storms were quicker to intensify near land, reducing the traditional seven days of preparation to only a couple of days.
"When the water is as warm as it is these days, you can easily go from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in a couple of days," Stewart said. "You can go from a tropical depression to a Category 5 within days, and that can happen over the Bahamas as something approaches South Carolina."
Stewart also warned officials not to use Hurricane Hugo as their benchmark because it shifted and weakened upon landfall.
"You're not always going to have a Hugo situation, and Hugo was your benchmark storm," Stewart said. "People need to understand not to follow that skinny line in our forecasts."