October Surprise?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 7:36 pm

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/coupled_model/poama.shtml

:uarrow:

At least this model for ENSO the POAMA forecasts El Nino to wake up by October as you can see at link above.However other models dont have this solution and are staying Neutral or Weak La Nina.Let's wait and see in reallity what will occur in the next few months with those waters in the Equatorial Pacific.

CHRISTY · #2 Postby **CHRISTY** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 7:45 pm

my gut feeling says we are going to have neutral conditions or weak la nina!

HurricaneHunter914 · #3 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:20 pm

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Go away El Nino, the Atlantic is on a record breaking streak.

#4 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:24 pm

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Go away El Nino, the Atlantic is on a record breaking streak.

Go away El nino? It would at least reduce the total number of storms and the chances of a landfall 8-)

AussieMark · #5 Postby **AussieMark** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:31 pm

Go away El Nino

for my sanity that is

El Nino give us hot summers and very little rain

so I do hope this wrong

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:35 pm

The folks that live in the Gulf Coast deserve a BIG break so if El Nino comes I will be happy.

Scorpion · #7 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:38 pm

This is by October......... not during season

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:40 pm

October........ is Season.

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:43 pm

Also anything can happen and El Nino may show it's face earlier than October to offer us more surprises.

Scorpion · #10 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:49 pm

Rainband wrote:October........ is Season.

October however is the end of the season, and is not when the GOM is threatened.

#11 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:53 pm

Scorpion wrote:
Rainband wrote:October........ is Season.

October however is the end of the season, and is not when the GOM is threatened.

South Florida's busiest month is often October (most FL hits come from the South and/or Southwest)...and the west coast of FL is highly vulnerable. The GOM is high risk in October....

Scorpion · #12 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:54 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Scorpion wrote:
Rainband wrote:October........ is Season.

October however is the end of the season, and is not when the GOM is threatened.

South Florida's busiest month is often October...and the west coast of FL. The GOM is high risk in October....

I dont count FL as GOM. FL is considered East Coast.

#13 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:57 pm

October is season anyway and just because the east coast of florida is not affected it can still be dangerous. The east coast of florida was affected by wilma last year.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml

#14 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:58 pm

Hey SouthFloridawx that is a cool map...what do they depict for August-September for the GOM :eek:

HurricaneHunter914 · #15 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 9:00 pm

The west coast of Florida is in the GOM just to tell you Scorpion

#16 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 9:01 pm

As an aside from this topic, Hurricane Hunter I notice you have an avg of 41.25 posts a day. wow, that's alot :eek:

Anyway, I hope el nino kicks in over the next few months....it would certainly put alot of us at some ease... (although I remember Andrew came out of nowhere during an el nino year)

#17 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 9:04 pm

#18 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 9:08 pm

Thanks for the map

wxmann_91 · #19 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 9:09 pm

...never mind... please disregard...

#20 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Mar 27, 2006 9:09 pm

boca_chris wrote:Thanks for the map

Your welcome

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