Possible tropical System Forming in the Bahamas?

[CHRISTY]

not sure whats going on here but looks interesting! right of the florida coast in 180 hrs... thoughts welcomed! wait until it loads!

[Weatherfreak000]

Well that has the look of a low pressure system off of Florida. And shear values are supposed to be pretty low in that area.


But, forecasts 180 Hours out aren't very reliable. That forecast was given yesterday as well. I think I would be alittle more convinced if I saw a bit more model agreement on a scenario like this.

[weatherwoman132]

are you talking about that green thingy?

[Air Force Met]

not sure whats going on here but looks interesting! right of the florida coast in 180 hrs... thoughts welcomed! wait until it loads!

Thoughts? Well...I have two.

1) It's April and the water temps in that area are in the lower 70's.
2) If you will watch the loop and look at some other charts, you will see that this is part of a front and the low is still baroclinic. There is still an upper low at 200-300 mbs.

Put those together and you come to the conclusion that there is nothing at all tropical to speak of and even in June when the water temps would be favorable this feature would have an extremely difficult time becoming anything to speak of due to the upper level cold core low sitting on top of it.

Keep in mind, with the exception of Ana in 2003, nothing has ever formed in April...and nothing will form under an upper low in a baroclinic zone.

That's my thoughts.

[gtalum]

Bear watching?

[Air Force Met]

Bear watching?

Yeah...bears watching only if we are watching unstable waves on fronts now in the tropical forum. Other than that...not!

[MiamiensisWx]

THE FIRST (ALBEIT POSSIBLY UNOFFICIAL) BEAR WATCH OF THE SEASON HAS BEEN ISSUED!

[windycity]

nah, doesnt stand a chance. Fun to watch, though.

[CHRISTY]

hey guys i know its early i just thought it was interesting.....maybe in mid may!

[Camille_2_Katrina]

i don't think we'll see anything in that area
for months...

[HURAKAN]

Statistically speaking, it has a -10% to develop. Now, Ana was a surprise and I will just keep a watchful eye, not expecting much, but just for precaution.

[JonathanBelles]

i dont see anything

[SouthFloridawx]

i dont see anything

Maybe the graphic automatically updates itself.

[Weatherfreak000]

Evidently it does, what a bust

[Air Force Met]

Evidently it does, what a bust

Yeah. I'm thinking that looking for tropical activity in APRIL 180 hours out over 72 degree waters is an effort in futility and possibly extreme boredom.

People...it's APRIL. If there was actually something giong on...then maybe we could talk about it...but 180 hours out? Gotta be boredom...no other reason to even be talking about this.

Man...what's this place going to be like when it's really hurricane season?

[weatherwoman132]

lmfao. crazyyy

[wjs3]

Hey, AFM:

Just an idea...and I apologize to all if this is way off base...I know I don't post here a lot, but I have been lurking a lot (and posting some) for the last couple of years.

There have been several times this spring where a baroclinic low has been called out on the board as "something to watch".

Should we discuss, for those who are new to identifying tropical systems, how an extratropical low and tropical low are different, and how one can look at a prog, etc and see the difference?

Back to basics?

Just an idea.

[OuterBanker]

All I know is that the first week in May will be a bad weather week for Ocracoke NC. Last year brought a rather nasty Nor Easter with confirmed 80 mph winds and massive flooding. If not a Nor Easter it will be cold and wet, I have no doubts. The reason is that it is the time for the Ocracoke Invitational Fishing Tournament. No one can remember the last time it was pretty during the tournament.

[Air Force Met]

Hey, AFM:

Just an idea...and I apologize to all if this is way off base...I know I don't post here a lot, but I have been lurking a lot (and posting some) for the last couple of years.

There have been several times this spring where a baroclinic low has been called out on the board as "something to watch".

Should we discuss, for those who are new to identifying tropical systems, how an extratropical low and tropical low are different, and how one can look at a prog, etc and see the difference?

Back to basics?

Just an idea.

I think it's a great idea.

One thing people need to remember first is to not look at the end result...in this example...there was a low off of Florida at 180 hours. We have to look at where that low comes from. In this case...it was on a front.
It takes a long time to transition a cold-core system.

So...how do you tell if it's cold core? There are a couple of ways. When people see something they believe they need to watch, they need to also look at the upper levels. Take a look at a 300 mb chart from the same time. If there is an upper level low over it or near it and there is shear over the sfc feature...then it's cold core (this is a very simple explanation).

Another way is to look at this:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

You can track the low and see if it will transition (as forecasted by the model).

So...if it's cold core...and it's not sitting over warm water...we shouldn't be wasting our time. If it is cold core and sitting over warm (~80 and above) water, we might can watch if it looks like it has potential to transition over.
Pretty simple explanation. Use the cyclonphase and the upper level charts.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Doesn't show this system bringing rain to Florida. If it's bring rain, there really isn't any use of watching it in my opinion.