I could use your help...

[senorpepr]

Okay… I want to employ everyone’s help here. Many of you are familiar with my climatology posts over in the Tropical Analysis section.

I’ve been accomplishing these posts, in one form or another, for what will be my twelfth season—fourth season here on Storm2k. Last season I made a big change by adding the Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) Index and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index to these posts. Those two ideas came from posters like you. For 2006, I’ve already added ideas from fellow posters, such as including a 10-year average as well as a 30-year and 155-year. (The records go back 155 years)

Well, I’m going to post the “bare template” of these posts. Feel free to check out what I’m posting below and compare it to what is in the Tropical Analysis forum. Then, I’d like to hear your comments.

Thanks!

-Mike

[senorpepr]

...opening teaser...

The next five names to be used are: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto

Below is a breakdown of what storms were active on this date between 1851 and 2005. Listed are the year, how many active storms had formed on or before this date, and the date of when the same lettered storm to this system developed on. At the end of the listing is a 155-, 30-, and 10-year average, using the data set from 1851 to 2005, 1976 to 2005, and 1996 to 2005, respectively.

*** Please note: The following data encompasses data utilizing today's standard for naming storms. Subtropical storms are included, but depressions aren't. In addition, the dates reflect when a tropical storm reached that status rather than depression status. Adjustments have been made to include unnamed storms where in today's standard it would have been named. Therefore, if a unnamed storm forms before the A-storm, this database would assume the unnamed storm is A, and the real A-storm is B.

Active Storms on January 01, followed by the date the A-storm formed.

Code: Select all

2005   14
2004   14
2003   14
2002   12
2001   14
2000   15
1999   12
1998   13
1997   8
1996   12
1995   19
1994   7
1993   8
1992   7
1991   8
1990   14
1989   10
1988   11
1987   7
1986   6
1985   11
1984   12
1983   4
1982   6
1981   12
1980   9
1979   9
1978   11
1977   6
1976   10
1975   8
1974   11
1973   8
1972   7
1971   13
1970   10
1969   17
1968   8
1967   8
1966   11
1965   6
1964   12
1963   9
1962   5
1961   11
1960   7
1959   11
1958   10
1957   8
1956   8
1955   12
1954   10
1953   12
1952   7
1951   10
1950   13
1949   13
1948   9
1947   9
1946   6
1945   11
1944   11
1943   10
1942   10
1941   6
1940   8
1939   5
1938   8
1937   9
1936   16
1935   6
1934   9
1933   21
1932   11
1931   8
1930   2
1929   3
1928   6
1927   7
1926   11
1925   1
1924   8
1923   7
1922   4
1921   6
1920   4
1919   3
1918   5
1917   3
1916   14
1915   5
1914   1
1913   4
1912   6
1911   4
1910   5
1909   11
1908   9
1907   5
1906   11
1905   5
1904   5
1903   10
1902   5
1901   12
1900   7
1899   9
1898   11
1897   6
1896   6
1895   6
1894   7
1893   12
1892   9
1891   10
1890   4
1889   9
1888   9
1887   15
1886   12
1885   8
1884   4
1883   4
1882   6
1881   7
1880   11
1879   8
1878   11
1877   7
1876   5
1875   6
1874   7
1873   5
1872   5
1871   8
1870   11
1869   10
1868   4
1867   9
1866   7
1865   7
1864   5
1863   8
1862   5
1861   8
1860   7
1859   8
1858   6
1857   4
1856   6
1855   5
1854   5
1853   8
1852   5
1851   6


====
Average # of named storms on Jan 01 ( 10yr avg): 00.00 ('06: above average by 00.00)
Average # of named storms on Jan 01 ( 30yr avg): 00.00 ('06: above average by 00.00)
Average # of named storms on Jan 01 (154yr avg): 00.00 ('06: above average by 00.00)
Average Date for A-storm* ( 10yr avg): Jan 01 ('06: ahead of schedule by 00 days)
Average Date for A-storm* ( 30yr avg): Jan 01 ('06: ahead of schedule by 00 days)
Average Date for A-storm* (154yr avg): Jan 01 ('06: ahead of schedule by 00 days)
(remember that as the data-set becomes smaller, the date will jump around)

* A-storm occurred 00.0% of the time in the past 10 years.
* A-storm occurred 00.0% of the time in the past 30 years.
* A-storm occurred 00.0% of the time in the past 154 years.

[senorpepr]

Below is an extention of my normal "Such and such date and storms brought to you by such and such letter." Below I've listed each named storm this season. The second column lists on what day that storm reached tropical storm status. Column three lists the average number of named storms on that particular date with the comparison to this year in parenthesis. The fourth column lists the average day that letter of storm normally forms with the departure of this year in parenthesis. Finally, I've listed the frequency on using this letter. At the bottom, I've listed the other topics that I've posted, giving a complete breakdown of each system. Enjoy!

Code: Select all

Alberto     Jun 09    10yr: 00.00 (+00.00)   Jan 00 (+00)   100.0%
                      30yr: 00.00 (+00.00)   Jan 00 (+00)   100.0%
                     155yr: 00.00 (+00.00)   Jan 00 (+00)   100.0%


(remember that as the data-set becomes smaller, the date will jump around)

Jan 01/A | http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=#####

[senorpepr]

2006 vs Net Tropical Cyclone Index and Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index vs Climatology

The following information is a comparison between this season's Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) Index and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index as compared to climatology to date and adjusted for the end of the season.

This product is calculated every Monday at 00Z (Sunday at 8pm EDT/7pm EST).

2006's figures by storm... (Current as of 01 JAN 2006 00Z)
(* denotes active storms)

Code: Select all

        NS      H       IH      NSD     HD      IHD     ACE
AVG     9.6     5.9     2.3     49.10   24.50   5.00    93.2000
2006    0.0     0.0     0.0     00.00   00.00   0.00    00.0000
A       0.0     0.0     0.0     00.00   00.00   0.00    00.0000


2006 Weekly Breakdown...

Code: Select all

1.8%      NS      H       IH      NSD     HD      IHD     NTC     Name
Jun 01    00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.0%   N/A
Dec Fcst  00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.0%   
Apr Fcst  00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.0%   
Jun Fcst  00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.0%   
Aug Fcst  00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.0%   
Sep Fcst  00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.0%   
Oct Fcst  00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.0%   
Curve     00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.00   00.0%   N/A

                  Total ACE       Percent                 Ranking                 
ACE Season       000.0000 x 10^4  00.00%   Below-average  156/156
ACE Curve        000.0000 x 10^4  00.00%   Below-average  156/156


[senorpepr]

Regarding the above information...

NTC calculates this season's named storms (NS), hurricanes (H), intense hurricanes (IH), names storms days (NSD), hurricane days (HD), and intense hurricane days (IHD). These six figures are then compared to a 51-year average spanning from 1950 to 2000, and then applied to the NTC Index formula: NTC=(NS%+H%+IH%+NSD%+HD%+IHD%)/6

From 1950 to 2000, on average, there were 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year. Each year experienced, on average, 49.1 named storm days, 24.5 hurricane days, and 5.0 intense hurricane days.

ACE calculates this season’s named storms, when they undergone cyclogenesis, cyclolysis, and their sustained winds. This is accomplished by taking each individual storm and summing the square of each six-hourly sustained wind speed, in knots. Provisional ACE figures will use the 03Z, 09Z, 15Z, and 21Z advisories, regardless of any additional advisories. Once the best tracks are released, the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z data will be used. Also note that a storm may reach peak intensity between six-hourly positions and will not be calculated into the ACE figures. The standard display for ACE is ACE*10^4.

To compare the season up-to-date with climatology and Dr. Gray's previous forecasts, proration was used based on historical progress. For instance, when comparing the past 30 years, by June 1st 1.8% of the season is complete – on average. Therefore, this percentage is then applied to the average yearly totals for NS, H, IH, NSD, HD, and IHD, respectively, to produce a more accurate comparison. This percentage is also applied to Dr. Gray’s December, April, June, August, September, and October forecasts, when applicable.

Computed is also a "climo curve." It is a hypothetical forecast using the aforementioned historical progress curve. Therefore, this calculates the actual values for a given data and adjusts them based on the curve through 31 Dec 2006 2359Z. A forecast from the curve is then applied to NS, H, IH, NSD, HD, and IHD. Thereafter a NTC Index percentage is calculated and a name is given. Note: with fast-starting seasons, the number of named storms is severely accelerated (as mentioned in the next paragraph). Therefore, anytime the NS is greater than 45, instead of listing a forecasted name, the number will simply appear. That is because Omega would be the 45th named storm and there are no plans for a secondary auxiliary list.

I must stress that the forecast curve is purely hypothetical in nature and is by no means an accurate guide for the end of the season. Any variance to normal will exponentially throw off the end-of-season forecast, especially if the numbers are calculated toward the beginning of the season. Therefore, a slow beginning season will produce a severely below-normal season and vice versa. Once again, I must stress that the bottom set of calculations are purely hypothetical and are “just for grins.”

[HurryKane]

You had me at "climo."

[Javlin]

Senor info looks good,good analysis what else can we ask for keep up the good work and let me know when you have something HOT and not a dead fish

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks good mike, I can't wait to see what the numbers are going to look like this season.

[senorpepr]

I'm going to bump this thread again to see if I can gain anymore feedback. By the way, thanks to all that have already commented. I've been tempted with the idea of using graphics in these posts, but what stats should I use graphics for or should I just drop that idea altogether? Thanks.

[100feettstormsurge]

In addition to doing the 10, 30, and 155-year averages, can you do the average since 1995? That was the year activity really started picking up in the Atlantic, and going back 10 years would only go back to 1996.

[CHRISTY]

looks good iam also very interested to see how this season is gonna turn out.

[senorpepr]

In addition to doing the 10, 30, and 155-year averages, can you do the average since 1995? That was the year activity really started picking up in the Atlantic, and going back 10 years would only go back to 1996.

I think for the near future I can stick with a 1995-present average in lieu of the 10-year average. Thanks for the comment.

[gatorcane]

I think your analysis is great. Thank you for posting your thoughts