Latest Claudette GARP Images / Thoughts

[wxman57]

I saved a few more images before I left work this afternoon. The first is a plot of visible satellite with METARS and SHIP obs. The second adds 250MB winds on top:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/claudette7.gif

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/claudette8.gif[/url]

Looks like Claudette is getting a bit better organized now. I don't disagree with the latest NHC track. They were within 30 miles of mine through 72 hours. Beyond 72 hours steering currents aren't so well-established.

I do see the possible threat to the TX early next week, but I just can't rule out a more northward track toward LA/MS. There certainly isn't any ridge blocking a northward movement from the Yucatan - there just doesn't appear to be anything to shove Claudette up that way.

Intensity should continue to increase up to the Yucatan Peninsula, probably to a Cat 1 storm in 48hrs. I have my doubts that Claudette will clip the Yucatan so hard, my original track took it over Cozumel and the NE tip of the peninsula, leading to less inland weakening. I think Claudette should re-intensify to a hurricane in the SW Gulf on Saturday/Sunday.

I guess I know where I'll be this weekend.

[Colin]

Thanks for the thoughts, wxman...I agree with them completely.