Rapidly intensifying storms

[mtm4319]

For much of the past week, I've been analyzing and sorting information from the most recent versions of HURDAT (available at the bottom of this page). I've been working on a map that will show the average change in cyclone energy (knots squared) every 6 hours by location (basically, a grid of the Atlantic divided into 0.5 by 0.5 degree sections). One storm exploding in intensity in a 6-hour period can really throw off the average change for that section it's intensifying in. So I figured I'd list the most rapidly-intensifying storms and, since I don't have a lot of knowledge of the storms before my time, I figured I'd see if any of these are bunk. (Note: Ethel has already been discounted.)

Code: Select all

55 KNOTS:

Janet    1955   12.9, 59.2   09/22, 0600-1200 UTC   50 kt ---> 105 kt
...........[35-50-50-105-105-100-85-80-80...
Wilma    2005   16.6, 81.8   10/19, 1800-0000 UTC   75 kt ---> 130 kt
...........30-35-40-45-55-60-65-75-130-150-160-140-135-130...

45 KNOTS:

Unnamed  1945   27.6, 85.6   06/23, 1200-1800 UTC   55 kt ---> 100 kt
...........35-40-40-40-45-45-50-50-50-55-100-95-80-70-60...
Betsy    1956   14.1, 53.0   08/10, 0000-0600 UTC   60 kt ---> 105 kt
...........[50-50-50-60-105-105-105-105-100-95-80...

40 KNOTS:

Blanche  1969   35.5, 69.7   08/11, 1200-1800 UTC   35 kt ---> 75 kt
...........[30-30-35-75-75-75-65-60-50-40]
Celia    1970   24.3, 87.2   08/02, 1800-0000 UTC   60 kt ---> 100 kt
...........[25-25-25-30-30-30-45-60-100-90-85-85-80-75...

35 KNOTS:

Connie   1955   18.0, 54.9   08/05, 0000-0600 UTC   60 kt ---> 95 kt
...........40-40-40-45-50-60-95-110-115-120-120-125-125...
Abby     1960   13.8, 61.0   07/10, 0600-1200 UTC   30 kt ---> 65 kt
...........[30-30-65-70-80-80-85-80-70-70-75-75-75-65-50...
Ethel    1960   25.6, 89.7   09/14, 1200-1800 UTC   75 kt ---> 110 kt
Ethel    1960   27.0, 89.1   09/15, 1800-0000 UTC   110 kt ---> 140 kt
...........[40-75-110-140-80-60-45-35-35-30-25-20-15-15]
Hattie   1961   12.9, 81.7   10/28, 0000-0600 UTC   65 kt ---> 100 kt
...........[45-55-65-100-105-110-110-110-110-110...
Gladys   1964   24.6, 64.1   07/17, 0600-1200 UTC   85 kt ---> 120 kt
...........[70-70-70-70-70-75-75-85-120-125-125-125...

30 KNOTS:

Unnamed  1898   30.1, 79.4   08/30, 0600-1200 UTC   35 kt ---> 65 kt
Unnamed  1936   26.7, 96.0   06/27, 1800-0000 UTC   35 kt ---> 65 kt
Unnamed  1944   16.1, 80.8   10/13, 1800-0000 UTC   35 kt ---> 65 kt
Love     1950   27.5, 90.8   10/18, 0000-0600 UTC   35 kt ---> 65 kt
Jig      1951   29.4, 75.3   10/15, 0600-1200 UTC   35 kt ---> 65 kt
Carol    1953   17.3, 56.3   09/03, 1800-0000 UTC   85 kt ---> 115 kt
Edith    1963   13.2, 58.2   09/24, 1200-1800 UTC   35 kt ---> 65 kt
Alma     1966   18.5, 84.1   06/06, 1200-1800 UTC   40 kt ---> 70 kt
Becky    1966   37.6, 54.4   07/02, 0600-1200 UTC   35 kt ---> 65 kt
Alma     1970   16.8, 81.9   05/20, 0600-1200 UTC   35 kt ---> 65 kt
Caroline 1975   24.0, 97.0   08/31, 1800-0000 UTC   70 kt ---> 100 kt
Anita    1977   24.6, 96.2   09/02, 1800-0000 UTC   110 kt ---> 140 kt
Harvey   1981   20.2, 57.8   09/13, 1800-0000 UTC   40 kt ---> 70 kt
Bret     1999   24.7, 95.1   08/22, 1800-0000 UTC   90 kt ---> 120 kt
Iris     2001   17.1, 84.0   10/08, 0600-1200 UTC   90 kt ---> 120 kt
Charley  2004   26.1, 82.4   08/13, 1200-1800 UTC   95 kt ---> 125 kt

25 KNOTS:

Unnamed  1916   18.0, 64.8   09/09, 1200-1800 UTC   60 kt ---> 85 kt
Unnamed  1931   17.6, 87.9   09/10, 1200-1800 UTC   85 kt ---> 110 kt
Unnamed  1932   27.2, 93.3   08/13, 0600-1200 UTC   65 kt ---> 90 kt
Unnamed  1933   19.5, 58.7   08/31, 0600-1200 UTC   45 kt ---> 70 kt
Diane    1955   24.7, 61.0   08/12, 0000-0600 UTC   65 kt ---> 90 kt
Ione     1955   37.0, 73.4   08/20, 0600-1200 UTC   65 kt ---> 90 kt
Audrey   1957   22.0, 93.4   06/25, 0600-1200 UTC   60 kt ---> 85 kt
Debra    1959   28.3, 95.4   07/24, 0600-1200 UTC   40 kt ---> 65 kt
Gerda    1961   31.5, 71.5   10/19, 1200-1800 UTC   30 kt ---> 55 kt
Arlene   1963   27.3, 70.5   08/08, 1800-0000 UTC   30 kt ---> 55 kt
Cleo     1964   14.1, 51.3   08/21, 0600-1200 UTC   40 kt ---> 65 kt
Cleo     1964   15.3, 57.8   08/22, 0000-0600 UTC   75 kt ---> 100 kt
Gladys   1964   15.4, 46.0   09/13, 0600-1200 UTC   30 kt ---> 55 kt
Gladys   1964   18.8, 52.1   09/14, 0600-1200 UTC   60 kt ---> 85 kt
Betsy    1965   21.2, 64.7   08/30, 1800-0000 UTC   40 kt ---> 65 kt
Alma     1966   33.7, 75.4   06/11, 1200-1800 UTC   40 kt ---> 65 kt
Doria    1967   30.5, 77.0   09/10, 0000-0600 UTC   40 kt ---> 65 kt
Camille  1969   20.7, 83.8   08/15, 0600-1200 UTC   60 kt ---> 85 kt
Gerda    1969   37.8, 72.2   09/09, 0600-1200 UTC   85 kt ---> 110 kt
Candice  1976   41.2, 59.3   08/21, 0000-0600 UTC   40 kt ---> 65 kt
Alberto  1982   24.0, 83.6   06/03, 1200-1800 UTC   50 kt ---> 75 kt
Emily    1987   30.2, 68.0   09/25, 0000-0600 UTC   45 kt ---> 70 kt
Keith    2000   17.9, 86.9   10/01, 1800-0000 UTC   75 kt ---> 100 kt
Ivan     2004   10.2, 46.8   09/05, 1200-1800 UTC   85 kt ---> 110 kt
Emily    2005   24.4, 96.1   07/20, 1800-0000 UTC   85 kt ---> 110 kt
Katrina  2005   25.2, 86.7   08/28, 0000-0600 UTC   100 kt ---> 125 kt
Rita     2005   24.3, 86.2   09/21, 1200-1800 UTC   120 kt ---> 145 kt

So, any thoughts? One I have real suspicions on is the 1945 storm that strengthened by 45 knots in 6 hours.

Another note: Wilma was the 12th time a storm had intensified by at least 35 knots in 6 hours, but it was the first storm to do that in the past 35 years.

[Jim Cantore]

Very nice but only one error I caught

Charley jumped to 130kts

[MiamiensisWx]

You forgot the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which is one of the most obvious ones. Otherwise, nice job.

[mtm4319]

Very nice but only one error I caught

Charley jumped to 130kts

Keep in mind that I'm only using the HURDAT for these. Charley did get to 130 knots, but it was at 1945 UTC (an hour and 45 minutes after these datapoints provided).

You forgot the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which is one of the most obvious ones. Otherwise, nice job.

The Labor Day storm did get to 140 knots, but its maximum 6-hour increase was actually just 15 knots.

(...60-60-65-75-90-105-120-130-140-130-115-100-95-85-80-75-60-60-55...)

But since you mention the Labor Day storm, I always thought it got up to about 165-170 knots (because it was so small and still reached sub-900 millibars). Have they not re-analyzed this one yet?

[AussieMark]

You forgot the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, which is one of the most obvious ones. Otherwise, nice job.

according to data

from 65 kts --> 75 kts --> 90 kts --> 105 kts --> 120 kts --> 130 kts --> 140 kts

[dwsqos2]

The "Labor Day" storm has been re-analyzed, and its peak intensity was
revised to 160 KT.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/presentations/glennsims.ppt

Incidentally, even given the re-analysis, the "Labor Day" storm would
remain excluded from the above table.

[CHRISTY]

Hey i remember when hurricane rita passed under the keys and then really began to intensify i remember going on line and looking and some recon data and looking at this and i couldn't believe what i was seeing...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES.

THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH
MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER.
she was truly an incredible storm before she began to weaken.But i bet we will probably and more names to that list before its all said and done.
so many incredible storms in 2005 i feel lucky to be still here.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Charley jumped to 130kts

The 1800Z archive I noted showed Charley at 125 KT (145 mph) at that time... He may have done still more intensification before landfall-- I dunno if Hurdat has different data but that's what NOAA has.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Okay... still gotta learn to read ALL the followups before posting... Since this was already addressed!

A2K

[weatherwindow]

is the reanalysis of the labor day storm available in any other format(ie, pdf etc) than powerpoint?.......also does the above list reflect the reanalysis data on audrey?......rich

[mtm4319]

Thanks for the comments, guys... but I wonder if the point of the topic was missed. Its intent was to discover and weed out the possible anomalies in the HURDAT.











Are all of these legit, or is there reason to believe these storms didn't intensify quite as quickly as shown here (like Ethel)?

The ones I'm mainly concerned about are Celia and the 1945 storm, because the map I'm working on generally covers the Gulf of Mexico, southern Atlantic coast, and northwest Caribbean.

[Scorpion]

I doubt they are accurate. Recon data was generally not very good. Most of those tracks use unreliable methods, such as using the same conversion from flight-level to surface. Also, the ones predating the recon area are not accurate at all, just a blind guess.

[mike815]

yeah probably not too acurate