Global models coincide on low,Will it be subtropical?

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cycloneye
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Global models coincide on low,Will it be subtropical?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2006 6:30 pm

12z GFS at 120 hours

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

12z NOGAPS at 120 hours

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

These are not those very long range 384 hours but very shorter timeperiods at 120 hours in which at least two global models show a low pressure in the EastCentral Atlantic.The question is if that low will be a cold core or something that may turn subtropical.Let's see in the next runs of these models what they show.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 28, 2006 6:35 pm

Something more to keep an eye on!!!
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#3 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun May 28, 2006 6:49 pm

Something to watch indeed.
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#4 Postby terstorm1012 » Sun May 28, 2006 7:12 pm

moving toward Charleston perhaps? ;-)

(sorry I could not resist. I will keep a watch on it indeed.)
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2006 7:18 pm

Yes,something to follow in the first days of the 2006 season.Let's see how this evolve,or into something tropical or it will be a cold core extratropical low.
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#6 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 7:35 pm

Convection continues to flare up in this area....I think this feature weather its cold core or something that turns subtropical may come out of this mess!

Image
Last edited by CHRISTY on Sun May 28, 2006 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 28, 2006 7:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yes,something to follow in the first days of the 2006 season.Let's see how this evolve,or into something tropical or it will be a cold core extratropical low.


I don't expect anything tropical, but there is a possibility it could become subtropical.

The farthest east and north a tropical cyclone has developed in June in a non-tropical region in the Atlantic was at 27N 58W in 1999, remember Arlene!!!!
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 28, 2006 7:36 pm

18z GFS at 120 hours

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

By looking at this 18z run we can see trends from the models,in this case from the GFS.This 18z run has the trend of sustaining the low and have it more deeper than the 12z run.Let's follow subsequent runs to see how the trend goes.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun May 28, 2006 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 7:37 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Yes,something to follow in the first days of the 2006 season.Let's see how this evolve,or into something tropical or it will be a cold core extratropical low.


I don't expect anything tropical, but there is a possibility it could become subtropical.

The farthest east and north a tropical cyclone has developed in June in a non-tropical region in the Atlantic was at 27N 58W in 1999, remember Arlene!!!!


yep! :wink:
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#10 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 7:38 pm

Have u guys seen the area of convection iam talkin about?
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#11 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 7:47 pm

Guys take a look at this Shear model from the navy 96 hours out in time! scroll down.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/wxgrid.pl?aor+ngpshrcolor+alltimes
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#12 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun May 28, 2006 7:51 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Not suprised, the shear map shows that the shear should continue decreasing for awhile. Alberto has suddenly come into my mind.
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 28, 2006 7:57 pm

If it becomes Alberto, it will be a good Alberto!!!
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#14 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 8:26 pm

Guys check out this loop it intensifys this thing pretty good...In what form dont know?

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=atlatrop_slp
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#15 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sun May 28, 2006 8:38 pm

Basically it gets picked up by a front and strengthens into an Extratropical Low.
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#16 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 9:03 pm

Here is a much better view of it!
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=natla_slp
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Sun May 28, 2006 9:11 pm

Too far north and east for my taste!!!
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#18 Postby CHRISTY » Sun May 28, 2006 9:14 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Too far north and east for my taste!!!


yea it probably wont amount to anything....To far north yes.
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#19 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun May 28, 2006 9:52 pm

looks impressive but its a dud
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#20 Postby spinfan4eva » Sun May 28, 2006 11:35 pm

After careful and indepth analysis of the GFS model at 120 hrs I proclaim this idea and forecast as...........
Image
NO GOOD!!
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