Latest Australian ENSO Wrap-Up

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Aquawind
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Latest Australian ENSO Wrap-Up

#1 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:35 pm

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml


Interesting starting paragraph..


The overall ENSO status remains neutral, and most computer predictions expect it to remain that way for the rest of 2006. However, the current negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and recent period of subsurface warming have increased the chance of an El Niño event compared with a month ago. The ENSO situation will be monitored closely for any developments in that direction.
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#2 Postby P.K. » Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:50 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85352&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=60

:wink:

I better leave now... :lol:
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#3 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 29, 2006 1:50 pm

Yeah, there has been significant subsurface warming throughout the basin.

Image

I don't think that's sufficient to flip the regime during the main part of the season, but it might indicate an earlier inception of an el Nino, possibly impacting the late season.

My prior inclination has been to think we're looking at an el Nino for next year, but this may jump the schedule some.
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#4 Postby Aquawind » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:45 pm

I better leave now...



LOL.. I didn't think it would have been in the ATL thread and I did look back 6 pages for a running Pacific thread but they were all seperate.. We should have a Pacific thread it makes it easier to follow the whole season with comments.. :wink:

Agreed Jan.. That's what I was thinking.. maybe a tad earlier than I expected but impacts on the Atl season are pretty iffy yet..
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#5 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Jun 29, 2006 3:58 pm

Off topic though it should be interesting to see what they trend might mean for the upcoming Fall and Winter in the East. After all El Niños usually mean wet and colder, and stormier than normal Winters over all (greater number of and more intense Nor'Easters for starters), which would be quite a change after last year.
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#6 Postby P.K. » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:49 am

Aquawind wrote:LOL.. I didn't think it would have been in the ATL thread and I did look back 6 pages for a running Pacific thread but they were all seperate.. We should have a Pacific thread it makes it easier to follow the whole season with comments.. :wink:


Well yeah but I was told to post them there. I do put it all in a seperate thread on the forum I moderate on though. :wink:
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