Jeff Master's July TC Blog Entry, Great Read I agree with

#1 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:26 am

Jeff Masters has a fantastic blog entry out for July. He sums up my own thoughts (as detailed over the Winter, and in my pre-season forecast) on the Eastern Weather Pattern (as I predicted in late Winter, May - August, maybe lasting into September), and the fact that the East Coast, not the GOM, (at least in the first half of the season, maybe the whole season, in my thinking) should be under the gun this year for the most part. Mr. Master's puts it better, than I could myself no doubt. Enjoy!:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200606

#2 Postby **Stephanie** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 10:57 am

Great blog! Thanks for sharing!!

#3 Postby **Steve** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 11:05 am

Well I'm not starting any Gulf Coast vs. East Coast wars, but let's tally the hits once they happen. Right now, it's Gulf Coast 1, Everything else 0. By next week, it might be 2-0. Many people have predicted only 3 or 4 named storms in the Gulf all season, and as most of us know, outside of weaker systems often found in June and July, the meat of the Gulf season is August and September (then also in October as fronts start trailing down again). I don't remember what I called for in the Gulf as far as named storms, but when you have the track record of the last 4 seasons saying "hit hit hit", I'm riding the horse I came in with. I think the entire basin is going to see plenty of action though nothing like 2005. There are potentially 5-7 hits on the US this year - Atlantic and Gulf included.

We'll talk in November.

Steve

#4 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:25 pm

I personally do not count a Florida West Coast hit south of the Panhandle as a GOM strike, but that is just me :wink:

#5 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:27 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:I personally do not count a Florida West Coast hit south of the Panhandle as a GOM strike, but that is just me

HUH? You serious? You don't count a coastline in Florida, that sits on the Gulf, a GOM strike? What do you call it?

#6 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 2:42 pm

My prediction for July:

3 named storms - 2 hurricanes (one becomes major in early August after forming in late July)

#7 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:20 pm

I call it a Florida strike, and most of Florida is part of the East Coast. After all Alberto effected areas like the Carolinas and Georgia, a lot more that it did Gulf Coastal states.

Thunder44 · #8 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:23 pm

Yeah, I just read this. His analysis looks good.

CHRISTY · #9 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 3:27 pm

another great blog from jeff masters...

T-man · #10 Postby **T-man** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 5:25 pm

Please tell me if I'm wrong here, but isn't there more miles of Florida coastline on the GOM vs. the Atlantic side of the state? I'm pretty sure most of Florida is facing the Gulf of Mexico...

Stratusxpeye · #11 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 5:31 pm

Great blog and makes really great points. I think july will be slow as june was. Pretty quit first two months but well see what comes august september of this year.

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 6:15 pm

Stratusxpeye wrote:Great blog and makes really great points. I think july will be slow as june was. Pretty quit first two months but well see what comes august september of this year.

June was in no way quiet. On average, a storm forms in June once every 2 years. This means that we were above the typical activity for June.

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 6:19 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:I personally do not count a Florida West Coast hit south of the Panhandle as a GOM strike, but that is just me

That makes absolutely no sense.

#14 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 6:35 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:I call it a Florida strike, and most of Florida is part of the East Coast. After all Alberto effected areas like the Carolinas and Georgia, a lot more that it did Gulf Coastal states.

Using your reasoning, I suppose Agnes of '72 would be considered a East Coast storm? Despite the fact that it formed off the Yucatan Peninsula and made landfall as a Cat 1 around the Panama City/Appalachicola area, it was the torrential rains, flooding, and 129 storm-related deaths in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast that she's remembered for.

C'mon...natural geography (in the short-term) is an absolute. Alberto was a Gulf storm that affected areas far inland up the East Coast. Let's keep it that way and lessen the confusion. :wink:

#15 Postby **windycity** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 6:39 pm

Jeff Masters is great, and i have learned so much from him,and Dr.Grey.As far as the GOM goes, threat wise, as long as we have the current wind patterns, i dont see how a storm could help but be torn apart.That is a really good thing, and shows high SSTs arent everything. Now, things could change and i pray it doesnt. The past few months,i was pretty concerned about this season and the gulf, but thus so far, its not as i had feared.But again, things can change, and it only takes one. Remember last year when all we heard, was the Gom being the main focas. It wasnt a cape year,but the east coast was hit.First by Kat, then by Wilma. Lets not let our guard down.

#16 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 6:51 pm

I didn't say people had to agree with me. That is just the way I feel, and others such as Dr. Gray seem to agree, that is why he says East Coast, including Florida, in his reports.

Another thing. I feel that a lot of this is feeding into many people -removed- ever disturbances into the GOM. I really do not know why, but that seems to be a huge desire here at times. I mean C'mon those poor souls suffered enough. I hope most of the experts, and myself, are correct and it is NOT ANOTHER GULF SEASON. :bday:

T-man · #17 Postby **T-man** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:04 pm

Now I know it hasn't been that long since Alberto has come and gone. Did it not intensify into what it was in the GOM? Did it not make landfall on a shoreline of the GOM? How is this -removed-? Aren't these facts? Hey, I'm just askin'.

bigmike · #18 Postby **bigmike** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:21 pm

Dr. Masters always writes a great post. And as far as the naysayers go notice he has a Dr. by his name. He's studied a lot more than a lot of these naysayers on this board. :raincloud:

#19 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 7:55 pm

A good read indeed. But I'm not so sure on the take for July, especially the last half. The SST's will be well warm enough to support a major hurricane in the Gulf and much of the Carib and off the east coast of Florida. The trough pattern in the east is not usually likely to continue to dip far enough into the SE CONUS to have much effect on these areas by late July. We will have to wait and see I suppose.

#20 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 8:09 pm

Sorry I just count Florida, South of the Panhandle, as the East Coast. I can understand if people disagree with this view, but I think it is a geographically sound one all the same. Now I'm not saying the center wasn't in the GOM prior to landfall, it was, I'm just saying in my mind it was more an East Coast event than a GOM storm. The -removed- is another, yet related, issue, but I digress. This is the last post I'm going to waste on explaining my position, it isn't fair to the mods to be eating up the bandwidth, and space posting basically the same comments over and over and over.

Jeff Master's July TC Blog Entry, Great Read I agree with

Jeff Master's July TC Blog Entry, Great Read I agree with

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