Typical Shear?

[bucman1]

Is the shear being experienced typical for this time of year??

[TS Zack]

In a way, yes... Still it is coming from many troughs coming down the east coast which is not usual for June-July.

[CHRISTY]

yes its very typical for this time of the year.We cant use 2005 as an example cause a year like 2005 does not happen very often.conditions shear wise in my opinion should improve towards mid july more so towards the end of july and really pick in august september and october.which is prime time for hurricane development.

[bucman1]

Christy, I agree with you completely!

Last year was so abnormal, many exspect 8 hurricanes by the end of July
and that is not realistic-

[gatorcane]

it seems like we just can't stay in the "summer-time" pattern that long this year. Look at the case of Florida. Finally after several weeks into the start of the rainy season di the East winds show up....but they were be quickly replaced by a trough later this week where winds will veer to the Southwest like they would in December.

Reminds me more of a fall or spring pattern.

[bucman1]

but as you know that can change very quickly to our summertime pattern , which it eventually will.

[gatorcane]

Right now, you can take a boat from the Leeward Islands through the Caribbean into the north coast of the GOM and not hit one cloud....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/vis-l.jpg

[Scorpion]

I have a feeling come September we will be begging for some quiet time. Enjoy it while it lasts.

[Grease Monkey]

We cant use 2005 as an example cause a year like 2005 does not happen very often.

Again, how can we be so sure of this. Do we have statistics going back at least 1,000 years?

[Meso]

well 1/100 isn't very often either

[MGC]

This reminds me of the pattern that was established a few years ago. ULL galore. The shear didn't abate till mid August and then the tropics exploded......MGC

[Cyclenall]

In the middle of winter in the tropics, how strong is the shear in the GOM and Caribbean? If anyone has a shear map from March 3-25 this year that would be great.

[beachbum_al]

yes its very typical for this time of the year.We cant use 2005 as an example cause a year like 2005 does not happen very often.conditions shear wise in my opinion should improve towards mid july more so towards the end of july and really pick in august september and october.which is prime time for hurricane development.

Well put Christy! 2005 was very unusual and to compare this year to last year is not natural. The peak of hurricane season is in September.

[Grease Monkey]

yes its very typical for this time of the year.We cant use 2005 as an example cause a year like 2005 does not happen very often.conditions shear wise in my opinion should improve towards mid july more so towards the end of july and really pick in august september and october.which is prime time for hurricane development.

Well put Christy! 2005 was very unusual and to compare this year to last year is not natural.

I'm sorry. I just don't understand this way of thinking. We only have about 150 years to base that on. How is that anywhere near enough evidence to suggest that 2005 was so unusual/unatural? How do we truly know if 1,000 (or ealier) years ago there were seasons like 2005 and/or worse for 200 (or more) years in a row and that seaons like recent recorded history were considered unheard of and unusual?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Simple answer we don't.