Tropics Will Heat Up In The Next Four Weeks

[Sean in New Orleans]

The tropics will explode with most activity along the East Coast this year, in early August. The season will be short-lived (about 6 weeks), and it will be mostly over, after that. It's going to be a weak season for names, but, power wil prevail, IMO, in a short amount of time. What am I talking about? I've always said, I lean more on the traditional cloud patterns and less on the fictitious models. It's not like last year, and we should have all known that one season has no bearing on the next season. Science still relies on nature and not computers, IMO, and all of the hoopla over last season and this season will be for not. Let's hope I'm right...two to three named storms for the Gulf of Mexico, this year, and then it is over.

[CrazyC83]

I agree and disagree, but I do think there will be some late-season activity. However, August and September will be BRUTAL.

[SouthFloridawx]

That's pretty bold. By chance do you have any reasoning to that or just the fact that we haven't had much development yet? If your looking to get a reaction out of people.. your probably going to get it.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I agree and disagree, but I do think there will be some late-season activity. However, August and September will be BRUTAL.

Brutal is harsh....I don't see it in the GOM. Patterns, today, give the Gulf South an earlier and cooler Fall...most, if not all storms, will go Up and East. We'll need a lull in the pattern to see GOM storms get active. The predictions remain the same as in April..the Outer Banks to Boston are the most serious areas for concern, IMO.

[Sean in New Orleans]

That's pretty bold. By chance do you have any reasoning to that or just the fact that we haven't had much development yet? If your looking to get a reaction out of people.. your probably going to get it.

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Patterns have stayed the same the entire Summer...fronts are going Deep South this year and forwarding all activity North and East. There is a chance of a lull in August, but, we'll need to see some change in China quick before this occurs...Watch the globe, not the SE United States.

[tgenius]

So Sean, according to your predictions, will Florida be under the gun in that time frame? and if so, what part?

[Sean in New Orleans]

So Sean, according to your predictions, will Florida be under the gun in that time frame? and if so, what part?

I'm no Met...I'm just watching what I always watch. Florida is always under the gun...If the pattern holds, Tampa north to Appalachicola, and Fort Lauderdale north to the Georgia line are under the gun. But, the "hightest gun," is from Savannah, GA to NYC, IMO, this year. I really think that most could be fish storms...and we could see some powerful fish storms. But, this is just my opinion...we'll see. It's quiet now, but, the waters are getting hot...we'll see some eyes this year, IMO....some deep eyes.