Model Runs...

[SCMedic]

CMC is developing a low just off of NOLA in 4 days..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[SWFLA_CANE]

If you follow it from the start of the model run, I think they are picking up on 96L

[Stormcenter]

That is not good for N.O. but hey it's only one model so why worry.

[WindRunner]

Not quite . . . the one there in 4 days actually doesn't develop there, but rather it comes from our little storm system in the straights of FL right now, and strengthens it as it moves into the gulf . . . the real shocker come looking at the 144hrs forecast, which shows our friend 96L, after having traveled over Hispaniola and Cuba, and start to wind up as it moves off of Cuba into the straights/GOM, it starts to bomb as it reaches the LA coast. For reference, the 144hr image:



That's 96L in 6 days per the CMC here . . . below is the actual vorticity feature that the first post here was referring to, which is in another interesting position at 84hrs (3 and a half days).



Note 96L as it is starting to wind up south of Florida, and actually while it is still somewhat over Cuba . . . if this were to play out (and it is the CMC, folks), it sure would prove to be an interesting week.

[skysummit]

Wow...I'm glad it's the only one so far! So that over SELA would be 96L in the above map?

[WindRunner]

Wow...I'm glad it's the only one so far! So that over SELA would be 96L in the above map?

The first map, yes. I guess I didn't quite get my edit in in time The second one is showing what SCMedic mentions.

[beachbum_al]

I was wondering the same thing when I click the first link and saw the blob form near where we are watching 96L and going into the GOM toward LA. I hope this doesn't happen because that area doesn't need a storm at all. Of course this is just computer models and it could be wrong.

[DESTRUCTION5]

99% chance of this not verifiying..Is take it as amusment for now

[N2DaTropics]

NAM SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISCOUNTED
AS IT OVER DEVELOPS THE WAVE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER W/
LANDFALL NEAR SE LOUISIANA LATE FRI OR EARLY SATURDAY. FORECAST POPS
ARE ALSO WELL BELOW MET GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. /13


.LONG TERM...H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTS
WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THIS
TRANSPORTS SOME MUCH DRIER AIR...PW VALUES BELOW 1.5 INCHES BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPS AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FROM SUN THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA BY
MID WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE 12.00Z GEM
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO NOT INDICATE DEVELOPMENT...JUST SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
AS WE GET DEEPER INTO JULY. /13

[skysummit]

LOL....so it's the "Alberto Brothers" again that's picking up something...the NAM and Canadian.

[Stormcenter]

NAM SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISCOUNTED
AS IT OVER DEVELOPS THE WAVE INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER W/
LANDFALL NEAR SE LOUISIANA LATE FRI OR EARLY SATURDAY. FORECAST POPS
ARE ALSO WELL BELOW MET GUIDANCE AS A RESULT. /13


.LONG TERM...H5 RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTS
WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THIS
TRANSPORTS SOME MUCH DRIER AIR...PW VALUES BELOW 1.5 INCHES BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS RESULTS IN WARMER TEMPS AND BELOW CLIMO POPS FROM SUN THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA BY
MID WEEK...BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE 12.00Z GEM
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A LOOK AT THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO NOT INDICATE DEVELOPMENT...JUST SOMETHING TO LOOK OUT FOR
AS WE GET DEEPER INTO JULY. /13

All I can say is hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

[wxman57]

Not quite . . . the one there in 4 days actually doesn't develop there, but rather it comes from our little storm system in the straights of FL right now, and strengthens it as it moves into the gulf . . . the real shocker come looking at the 144hrs forecast, which shows our friend 96L, after having traveled over Hispaniola and Cuba, and start to wind up as it moves off of Cuba into the straights/GOM, it starts to bomb as it reaches the LA coast. For reference, the 144hr image:

http://img117.imageshack.us/img117/3078 ... t245mh.png

That's 96L in 6 days per the CMC here . . . below is the actual vorticity feature that the first post here was referring to, which is in another interesting position at 84hrs (3 and a half days).

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/978/850vort148mg.png

Note 96L as it is starting to wind up south of Florida, and actually while it is still somewhat over Cuba . . . if this were to play out (and it is the CMC, folks), it sure would prove to be an interesting week.

Two things:
1. The Canadian graphic posted above is NOT a surface map, it's an 850mb vorticity map. The "closed low" is actually vorticity contours, not surface pressure isobars. Basically, it means that there may be some rotation aloft that could lead to thunderstorms.

2. The vorticity max moving into SE LA is NOT 96L, it's associated with the thunderstorms near the FL Straights today.

[beachbum_al]

wxman57,
So this is what our local mets are talking about for this weekend then. It is just supposed to bring some much needed rain to the area as it passes. Thank you.

[Stormcenter]

Not quite . . . the one there in 4 days actually doesn't develop there, but rather it comes from our little storm system in the straights of FL right now, and strengthens it as it moves into the gulf . . . the real shocker come looking at the 144hrs forecast, which shows our friend 96L, after having traveled over Hispaniola and Cuba, and start to wind up as it moves off of Cuba into the straights/GOM, it starts to bomb as it reaches the LA coast. For reference, the 144hr image:

http://img117.imageshack.us/img117/3078 ... t245mh.png

That's 96L in 6 days per the CMC here . . . below is the actual vorticity feature that the first post here was referring to, which is in another interesting position at 84hrs (3 and a half days).

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/978/850vort148mg.png

Note 96L as it is starting to wind up south of Florida, and actually while it is still somewhat over Cuba . . . if this were to play out (and it is the CMC, folks), it sure would prove to be an interesting week.

Two things:
1. The Canadian graphic posted above is NOT a surface map, it's an 850mb vorticity map. The "closed low" is actually vorticity contours, not surface pressure isobars. Basically, it means that there may be some rotation aloft that could lead to thunderstorms.

2. The vorticity max moving into SE LA is NOT 96L, it's associated with the thunderstorms near the FL Straights today.

Is this the disturbance you are referring to? Any chance of it being more than just a rainmaker for the Gulf coast?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[cajungal]

I don't pay much attention to these models this many days out. Because lots of times they have something forming, when nothing develops at all. And with no actual storm, the tracks are always wrong.