CMC Has system moving to South Texas in 5 days

[caneman]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[SouthFloridawx]

Yep noticed that last night but, forgot to mention it. Thanks for the reminder... I wonder what the other runs will do today.

I think this is associated with the wave the spun up 96L.

[vbhoutex]

Interesting. Are any other models picking up on this? If I am reading the wind barbs correctly it is showing a CAT1 or strong TS at the end of the loop. My presumption is that this would grow out of what is left of 96L? Correct me if I am wrong. I haven't had any time lately to sit down and look at any of this.

[wxmann_91]

CMC often spins up spurious systems. One of the runs a few days ago had two systems coming ashore in NOLA.

[SouthFloridawx]

Interesting. Are any other models picking up on this? If I am reading the wind barbs correctly it is showing a CAT1 or strong TS at the end of the loop. My presumption is that this would grow out of what is left of 96L? Correct me if I am wrong. I haven't had any time lately to sit down and look at any of this.

I think this would end up being the Northern extent of the tropical wave that started 96L.

[cheezyWXguy]

CMC often spins up spurious systems. One of the runs a few days ago had two systems coming ashore in NOLA.

True, but the system that the CMC threw at NOLA is actually out there...its not strong,not even a TD or invest, but its there

[cheezyWXguy]

Interesting. Are any other models picking up on this? If I am reading the wind barbs correctly it is showing a CAT1 or strong TS at the end of the loop. My presumption is that this would grow out of what is left of 96L? Correct me if I am wrong. I haven't had any time lately to sit down and look at any of this.

I think this would end up being the Northern extent of the tropical wave that started 96L.

If you look at the loop backwards, usint the +1,-1 buttons, it looks like it comes out of the Gulf of Honduras or Central america...I think this maybe a piece of energy that splits off of a wave heading for the EPAC

[SouthFloridawx]

It also spun up this area in the 12Z run yesterday.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think the CMC is developing the wave right in the center
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[WindRunner]

I think the CMC is developing the wave right in the center
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Link doesn't take you anywhere.

[cheezyWXguy]

alright here...click on central america when you get here
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastfullir.html

Its the one in the middle if you click on panama, but its on the right if you click on hondurus or nicaragua(i dont remember how to spell either of em) but botom line is, if u still dont know what im talking about its the one moving from South America to the North of Panama around where BEta formed

[tailgater]

It also spun up this area in the 12Z run yesterday.

Yes I too saw that run, and did look like it came from 96L. GFS also hinted at a BOC distrubance yesterday also but I haven't checked it today.

[wxman57]

I believe it's picking up on the energy associated with what's left of 96L near about 13-14N/70W. No convection with it, and it's heading nearly due west - not NW toward eastern Cuba as the models had predicted. It'll likely continue westward and cross into the Pacific early next week, where it may well develop.

[gatorcane]

I believe it's picking up on the energy associated with what's left of 96L near about 13-14N/70W. No convection with it, and it's heading nearly due west - not NW toward eastern Cuba as the models had predicted. It'll likely continue westward and cross into the Pacific early next week, where it may well develop.

of course it may develop because it will be in the EPAC not the Atlantic

[HurricaneHunter914]

The Atlantic is a death trap for every wave that forms.

[Tampa_God]

Looks like the system comes out from the southern part of the Yucatan as a weak system and then just explodes into a strong TS. I have no idea if this is from former 96L, but it doesn't seem like it.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I believe it's picking up on the energy associated with what's left of 96L near about 13-14N/70W. No convection with it, and it's heading nearly due west - not NW toward eastern Cuba as the models had predicted. It'll likely continue westward and cross into the Pacific early next week, where it may well develop.

Or it's picking up on that blob that is about to emerge into the southern caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[Tampa_God]

But that has been happening all this season. Just burst of storms would fire up over SA and enter the Souther part of the Carr. and enter the Pacific or die out.

[gatorcane]

I don't expect anything here or anywhere anytime soon:

Latest TWO:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141503
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA

[HurricaneHunter914]

Right now all I'm waiting for is a "The Season's a bust" thread.