Tropical or Not? We may have an Answer Yet...

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drezee
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#21 Postby drezee » Mon Jul 17, 2006 8:57 pm

wxman57 wrote:
drezee wrote:Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!!!
The battle of the Pro Mets!!!!
Derek vs. Wxman57
Who will present the most compelling evidence....

Just kidding... :lol: :lol: :lol:


Derek is a friend of mine. We're debating whether or not the low is frontal. I have great respect for his opinion.


Wxman, it was a joke. I am well aware of both of your intentions. Maybe I should have bolded the Just kidding...
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#22 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:12 pm

wxman57 wrote:
drezee wrote:Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!!!
The battle of the Pro Mets!!!!
Derek vs. Wxman57
Who will present the most compelling evidence....

Just kidding... :lol: :lol: :lol:


Derek is a friend of mine. We're debating whether or not the low is frontal. I have great respect for his opinion.


How was this not beryl this morning? This thing was TC hands down..It is the NHC to identify ever tropical cyclone in the atlantic am i wrong? Why ignore this system? Makes no sence our NC storms should start with a C..No questions asked...IMO this needs to be re evaluated..
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#23 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:14 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
drezee wrote:Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!!!
The battle of the Pro Mets!!!!
Derek vs. Wxman57
Who will present the most compelling evidence....

Just kidding... :lol: :lol: :lol:


Derek is a friend of mine. We're debating whether or not the low is frontal. I have great respect for his opinion.


How was this not beryl this morning? This thing was TC hands down..It is the NHC to identify ever tropical cyclone in the atlantic am i wrong? Why ignore this system? Makes no sence our NC storms should start with a C..No questions asked...IMO this needs to be re evaluated..
once again:
The HPC hasnt got rid of the front icon, meaning there still is a front there...aka no TC...Take the National Map from the NWS: http://nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php there is your low, connected to a cold front...
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#24 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:18 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
drezee wrote:Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!!!
The battle of the Pro Mets!!!!
Derek vs. Wxman57
Who will present the most compelling evidence....

Just kidding... :lol: :lol: :lol:


Derek is a friend of mine. We're debating whether or not the low is frontal. I have great respect for his opinion.


How was this not beryl this morning? This thing was TC hands down..It is the NHC to identify ever tropical cyclone in the atlantic am i wrong? Why ignore this system? Makes no sence our NC storms should start with a C..No questions asked...IMO this needs to be re evaluated..
once again:
The HPC hasnt got rid of the front icon, meaning there still is a front there...aka no TC...Take the National Map from the NWS: http://nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php there is your low, connected to a cold front...


Someone forgot thier blotter this morning..
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#25 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:20 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
drezee wrote:Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!!!
The battle of the Pro Mets!!!!
Derek vs. Wxman57
Who will present the most compelling evidence....

Just kidding... :lol: :lol: :lol:


Derek is a friend of mine. We're debating whether or not the low is frontal. I have great respect for his opinion.


How was this not beryl this morning? This thing was TC hands down..It is the NHC to identify ever tropical cyclone in the atlantic am i wrong? Why ignore this system? Makes no sence our NC storms should start with a C..No questions asked...IMO this needs to be re evaluated..
once again:
The HPC hasnt got rid of the front icon, meaning there still is a front there...aka no TC...Take the National Map from the NWS: http://nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php there is your low, connected to a cold front...


Someone forgot thier blotter this morning..
huh? what the heck is a blotter and what does that have to do with whether a TC is nontropical or not? I'm very confused...
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#26 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:23 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
drezee wrote:Let's get ready to RUMBLE!!!!!
The battle of the Pro Mets!!!!
Derek vs. Wxman57
Who will present the most compelling evidence....

Just kidding... :lol: :lol: :lol:


Derek is a friend of mine. We're debating whether or not the low is frontal. I have great respect for his opinion.


How was this not beryl this morning? This thing was TC hands down..It is the NHC to identify ever tropical cyclone in the atlantic am i wrong? Why ignore this system? Makes no sence our NC storms should start with a C..No questions asked...IMO this needs to be re evaluated..
once again:
The HPC hasnt got rid of the front icon, meaning there still is a front there...aka no TC...Take the National Map from the NWS: http://nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php there is your low, connected to a cold front...


Someone forgot thier blotter this morning..
huh? what the heck is a blotter and what does that have to do with whether a TC is nontropical or not? I'm very confused...


This may not have been completely Tropical in nature but it was certainly enough so to be called beryl...WXMan57 had this nailed..
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#27 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:24 pm

I can tell you this was tropical like...So it was not non tropical.
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#28 Postby DanKellFla » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:28 pm

Somebody get this system a drink with a paper umbrella and a Hawaian Shirt. Then, it will be tropical.
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#29 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:31 pm

it may of looked tropical in nature, but if it is connected to a frontal bounday...then it is not a TC...it was connected to the frontal boundry according to the HPC map posted above...therefore it does not get upgraded...no Beryl and it doesnt deserve the name according to the HPC maps...
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#30 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:31 pm

It gets my vote for tropical origination & tropical charecteristics for most of the day today. We will see what the NHC will say about it at the end of the season.
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#31 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:33 pm

brunota2003 wrote:it may of looked tropical in nature, but if it is connected to a frontal bounday...then it is not a TC...it was connected to the frontal boundry according to the HPC map posted above...therefore it does not get upgraded...no Beryl and it doesnt deserve the name according to the HPC maps...


Im betting that this gets its name...HPC map or not..
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#32 Postby Wthrman13 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:34 pm

Regarding watching the buoy temperatures for evidence of tropical characteristics: folks should keep in mind that the *surface* temperatures remain relatively constant as one moves toward the center of a TC. The warm core really only becomes apparent above the surface, due to latent heat release in the updrafts, and, in the case that the TC has an eye, due to subsidence warming inside the eye. The reason the surface temperatures remain relatively constant at the surface is that the warming due to the heat flux off of the ocean surface is nearly balanced by the cooling due to the pressure drop as the air moves in toward the center of the TC (where the pressure is lower). It's the first leg of the heat engine (Carnot engine) cycle: isothermal expansion.
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#33 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:35 pm

Wxman57 been doing this for over 20 years...I trust his thinking of there not being a frontal boundry. Also this thing was clearly its own system.
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#34 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:40 pm

brunota2003 wrote:it may of looked tropical in nature, but if it is connected to a frontal bounday...then it is not a TC...it was connected to the frontal boundry according to the HPC map posted above...therefore it does not get upgraded...no Beryl and it doesnt deserve the name according to the HPC maps...


What you say is true - IF the low is a frontal low. Problem is, I cannot identify any cold front offshore Nova Scotia. If there was a cold front off the Nova Scotia coast, then winds inland would be from the north or northeast, and dewpoints would be much lower than the upper 60s to low 70s. There would be evidence of a wind shift offshore, but there is no such evidence.

It's hard to argue that such high dewpoints at such northern latitudes combined with a southeast wind from Maine through Nova Scotia is CP air, or even MP air. That's tropical air. It's certainly likely that the HPC didn't properly analyze the weather chart. I've been plotting and analyzing such charts since 1977, and I do know how to identify a frontal boundary.
Last edited by wxman57 on Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#35 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:it may of looked tropical in nature, but if it is connected to a frontal bounday...then it is not a TC...it was connected to the frontal boundry according to the HPC map posted above...therefore it does not get upgraded...no Beryl and it doesnt deserve the name according to the HPC maps...


What you say is true - IF the low is a frontal low. Problem is, I cannot identify any cold front offshore Nova Scotia. If there was a cold front off the Nova Scotia coast, then winds inland would be from the north or northeast, and dewpoints would be much lower than the upper 60s to low 70s. There would be evidence of a wind shift offshore, but there is no such evidence.

It's hard to argue that such high dewpoints at such northern latitudes combined with a southeast wind from Maine through Nova Scotia is CT air, or even MP air. That's tropical air. It's certainly likely that the HPC didn't properly analyze the weather chart. I've been plotting and analyzing such charts since 1977, and I do know how to identify a frontal boundary.


WxMan I agree with your analysis, I think we had Beryl there and I think once the HPC/NHC goes back and looks at those charts you are looking at, they will hopefully see the fact that what was there was certainly more organized than Alberto.
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#36 Postby Jim Cantore » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:43 pm

I think they will come back post season and mark this a storm
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#37 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:46 pm

gatorcane wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:it may of looked tropical in nature, but if it is connected to a frontal bounday...then it is not a TC...it was connected to the frontal boundry according to the HPC map posted above...therefore it does not get upgraded...no Beryl and it doesnt deserve the name according to the HPC maps...


What you say is true - IF the low is a frontal low. Problem is, I cannot identify any cold front offshore Nova Scotia. If there was a cold front off the Nova Scotia coast, then winds inland would be from the north or northeast, and dewpoints would be much lower than the upper 60s to low 70s. There would be evidence of a wind shift offshore, but there is no such evidence.

It's hard to argue that such high dewpoints at such northern latitudes combined with a southeast wind from Maine through Nova Scotia is CT air, or even MP air. That's tropical air. It's certainly likely that the HPC didn't properly analyze the weather chart. I've been plotting and analyzing such charts since 1977, and I do know how to identify a frontal boundary.


WxMan I agree with your analysis, I think we had Beryl there and I think once the HPC/NHC goes back and looks at those charts you are looking at, they will hopefully see the fact that what was there was certainly more organized than Alberto.


They need to do it now before C storm forms or they will alter all future storms this years history...Imagine this happened last year and they made Katrina the L storm...?
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#38 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:47 pm

Wthrman13 wrote:Regarding watching the buoy temperatures for evidence of tropical characteristics: folks should keep in mind that the *surface* temperatures remain relatively constant as one moves toward the center of a TC. The warm core really only becomes apparent above the surface, due to latent heat release in the updrafts, and, in the case that the TC has an eye, due to subsidence warming inside the eye. The reason the surface temperatures remain relatively constant at the surface is that the warming due to the heat flux off of the ocean surface is nearly balanced by the cooling due to the pressure drop as the air moves in toward the center of the TC (where the pressure is lower). It's the first leg of the heat engine (Carnot engine) cycle: isothermal expansion.


That's certainly true, the buoy observations of temperature can't tell us if the system was warm or cold core. However, the buoy can provide other clues as to the structure of the low center. The sharp pressure drop combined with a sharp rise in wind speed near the core is more representative of a warm-core low than a much larger cold-core low. Actually, this system does appear to have both tropical and subtropical characteristics. In my opinion, more tropical than subtropical. But I don't think it's even close to being extratropical (or was earlier today).

Unfortunately, I think this will be one of those forgotten systems at the end of the 2006 season. I say "unfortunately" because I think that we'll see a lot more significant storms in the next 2 months. Kind of like New Orleans not even discussing Cindy after Katrina hit. The east U.S. Coast still looks like a prime area for landfalls in August/September.

I'm still hoping for a 1-storm season, though (1.5 counting this unnamed storm) ;-)
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#39 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:48 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:I think they will come back post season and mark this a storm


That's certainly possible. But if they do anything, they'll probably call it an unnamed STS, as they alluded to in their discussions today.
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#40 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 17, 2006 9:54 pm

so what your saying is the SPC/TPC/and HPC are all wrong in analizing it? they take all of their forecasts and place them together to form the graphic, plus the surface graphic they also use the OPC...so basicially all of NOAA is wrong...
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