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MiamiensisWx
 Post subject: INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4
PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:36 pm 
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First thread

Second thread

Third thread

Continue discussion on INVEST 99L here.


Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Mon Jul 31, 2006 6:29 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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Extremeweatherguy
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:45 pm 
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continued from page 25 on thread 3: AFM, I actually looked for the NHC def. first, but I could not find it. Instead, I went with the next quickest option...dictionary.com.
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PTrackerLA
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:46 pm 
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99L's circulation continues to become better defined on visible. The convection has also continued to grow since this morning. I think this will be TD 3 eventually.
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NONAME
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:49 pm 
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This is Definetly Getting better organize it has more convection and is sustaining it and with a flare up starting over the suspected center it sure does look better. NHC will Delcare it a TD when It is a TD.
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Dustin
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:49 pm 
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99L appears thttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.htmlo be moving due north on the visible satellite imagery so this one may be tricky.
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Air Force Met
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Dustin wrote:
99L appears thttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.htmlo be moving due north on the visible satellite imagery so this one may be tricky.


It's not moving due north. It's another outflow boundry being spit out of the circulation.
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Thunder44
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Dustin wrote:
99L appears thttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.htmlo be moving due north on the visible satellite imagery so this one may be tricky.


No, it looks to still be moving WNW.
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NONAME
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Ya I'm Going to Agree with Thunder44 still moving around WNW.
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x-y-no
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:54 pm 
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For the first time I think I might be seeing a small westerly wind - between 17:15 and 17:45 UTC right near about 15.1N, 57.6W - might be a SW flow. Need a couple more frames before I'm definite about it, though.
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storms in NC
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:55 pm 
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Tropical Depression

Once a group of thunderstorms has come together under the right atmospheric conditions for a long enough time, they may organize into a tropical depression. Winds near the center are constantly between 20 and 34 knots (23 - 39 mph).

A tropical depression is designated when the first appearance of a lowered pressure and organized circulation in the center of the thunderstorm complex occurs. A surface pressure chart will reveal at least one closed isobar to reflect this lowering.



Image provided by TPC
When viewed from a satellite, tropical depressions appear to have little organization. However, the slightest amount of rotation can usually be perceived when looking at a series of satellite images. Instead of a round appearance similar to hurricanes, tropical depressions look like individual thunderstorms that are grouped together. One such tropical depression is shown here.
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CrazyC83
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 2:57 pm 
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PTrackerLA wrote:
99L's circulation continues to become better defined on visible. The convection has also continued to grow since this morning. I think this will be TD 3 eventually.


Me too, although I can't see this getting terribly strong at this point. The system behind it (should be 91L) has monster potential I think.
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MWatkins
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FWIW Dvorak T-numbers are up to 1.5 from both SAB and TAFB as of 1745Z...their center fixes are pretty much right on top of each other as well at 15.7 57.8 and 15.8 57.9 respectively.

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southerngale
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I haven't had time lately to pay much attention to this, but looking at it now as compared to the little I've seen, it looks better to my UNTRAINED eye. On the visible floater and a zoom on a GHCC 15-frame loop, it looks like it's getting some outflow going, and just looks better overall.
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NONAME
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:01 pm 
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They declared Alberto a Depression with 1.5T-numbers
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cycloneye
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:01 pm 
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DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060731 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060731 1800 060801 0600 060801 1800 060802 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 57.9W 15.6N 60.0W 15.6N 62.3W 15.6N 64.7W
BAMM 15.8N 57.9W 16.1N 60.2W 16.7N 62.6W 17.2N 64.9W
A98E 15.8N 57.9W 17.1N 60.6W 18.1N 63.3W 18.9N 65.7W
LBAR 15.8N 57.9W 16.7N 60.2W 17.8N 62.7W 18.6N 65.1W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060802 1800 060803 1800 060804 1800 060805 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.7N 67.1W 16.0N 71.5W 15.9N 75.3W 16.1N 79.5W
BAMM 17.7N 67.1W 18.4N 71.1W 18.3N 74.9W 18.7N 79.1W
A98E 19.5N 68.2W 21.2N 73.0W 22.6N 77.6W 23.4N 81.8W
LBAR 19.4N 67.1W 20.8N 70.7W 22.0N 74.2W 23.4N 78.2W
SHIP 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 31KTS 32KTS 34KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 57.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 55.0W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 52.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z BAM Models.

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Extremeweatherguy
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:02 pm 
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I wonder what the NHC will say at 5:30pm? It certainly looks better than at 11:30am.
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Javlin
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:02 pm 
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http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Looks like a TUTT diving from the N but 99L is about to cross it's axis.This might actually help a little on the out flow issue once 99L gets out front.
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NONAME
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:04 pm 
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For those of you not familar with Dvorak T-numbers here is a site with info about them. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
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JPmia
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:13 pm 
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on visible - looks like a garden variety depression to me or a REALLY organized T-Wave.
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PTrackerLA
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 31, 2006 3:14 pm 
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Looks better than it ever has IMO. Convection continues to increase as well as inflow. Could we have a depression this evening?
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