How often does S. Florida get hit?

[LeeJet]

How often does S. Florida get hit by a hurricane, historically, since records have been kept? I'm most interested in Miami and the SE coast. I think someone told me it's once every 7 years that Miami gets hurricane force winds.

[wxman57]

How often does S. Florida get hit by a hurricane, historically, since records have been kept? I'm most interested in Miami and the SE coast. I think someone told me it's once every 7 years that Miami gets hurricane force winds.

I suggest using the Coastal Research Center's plotter that goes back to 1851. Select an area, region, zip code, place name, lat/lon, etc. Select any category storm (or all), any year(s), month(s), and you'll get your answer:

http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

[LightningInTheEye]

As many times as God wants.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am no expert but I will write this based on limited
knowledge. Anyone correct me if you'd like, because I
am not certain of these facts...though I think that these
facts have some close-to-correctness to them maybe.

I have lived here for 10 years
I can say that Central and South Florida get impacted
or affected by a cyclone (outer rainbands...winds...other
impacts such as raised water levels or rough seas) every
1-3 years.
Tropical Storm Conditions occur every 2-4 years...
Hurricane Conditions occur every 3-10 years depending
on the activity of the cycle
Major Hurricane Conditions will occur likely every 10-40+
years but shorter in any super-active intervals.

These are general guidelines that should not be used for
any major planning. Use the NHC and other official sources
for any important plans.

[mempho]

See my hurricane return periods post. There was another thread that discussed frequency today, so I thought I would put it in its own post.

[fci]

You should use the resources that have been mentioned above to get a definite answer.

I have lived here for most of the past 45 years with a gap in the middle but since my Mom lives here I followed storms very closely even when not living here myself.

The past 2 years have been an anomaly.
Or perhaps part of a cyclical trend that is foreboding for our area.

For most of the past 45 years, South Florida basically escapes hits from Hurricanes due to the Bermuda High. They come towards here and then take the turn out to sea before the Bahamas.

That's how it USED TO WORK!!!

The past couple of years, the ridge has driven storms towards us with more frequency than the past 40 years or so.

Yeah, an occasional hit from a storm and even a powerful one like Andrew; but basically not much.

Now don't anyone pull out the record book and cite the exceptions to my statements as I am just talking in general.

The lack of storms here caused the major case of complacency that has been replaced by "Panic" now that we have had Frances, Jeanne, Katrina and Wilma in the past 2 years!

So, statistically you may have gotten the answer when averages are used but the past couple of years have been excessive preceeded by an abnormal lack of storms for us.

[mempho]

Yes, FCI. It's important to remember that many places underperform the averages for years and years and years. Then, boom, boom, boom over a few years makes up for lost time. The Florida panhandle from Pensacola to Ft. Walton is a good example. They escaped the big ones for many years and then they seemingly caught up for lost time. Patterns get established for extended periods of time that either protect an area or make it a target. These things are averages over time and an area with a 25 year return period may go 100 or more years without a storm. Then, the pattern shifts and they get hit 3 times in 10 years. That's just the way it works. By the way, nature doesn't recognize a place as being "due" or for "having gotten more than their fair share" recently.

[EDR1222]

I don't know the exact numbers, or have proof to back it up, but regarding the Continental U.S., I believe the area considered to be Southeast Florida, along with Northwest Florida ( panhandle ) and the Outer Banks of North Carolina are the regions that have been affected by more hurricanes/ tropical storms than any other regions. This is over the long term going back to the early part of the 20th century.

Comments are welcome as I could be wrong. I am just trying to recall this from memory of an article I once read.