Ridging over the Northeast?

[SouthFloridawx]

After the past week or so we've seen troughing along the east coast. Now the models are indicating that we may see more ridging over the Northeast. I'm not quite sure how that plays out but, I heard that it helps development in the Atlantic.

Basically I'm asking if another pattern sets up with ridging in the northeast and a ridge in the Atlantic, does that indicate more favorable conditions in the Altantic?

What impact does this have on the season?

[TS Zack]

Like wxman57 pointed out earlier we are seeing the NAO go negative. This means more troughiness is developing over the Northeast US, allowing for the Bermuda High to weaken some. Therefore, reducing the trade winds so we don't see waves moving 30mph across the Atlantic.

Remember you are looking at MSLP with those maps! What comes behind cold fronts? Surface Highs are underneath upper-level troughs.

[SouthFloridawx]

Like wxman57 pointed out earlier we are seeing the NAO go negative. This means more troughiness is developing over the Northeast US, allowing for the Bermuda High to weaken some. Therefore, reducing the trade winds so we don't see waves moving 30mph across the Atlantic.

Remember you are looking at MSLP with those maps! What comes behind cold fronts? Surface Highs are underneath upper-level troughs.

You can see the troughing in this 00 hour initialization model.

[willjnewton]

so what does all this mean for landfalls for this 2006 storm season, like will this help to steer storms or hurricanes in the gulf or the east coast??? based on what you all our talking about here, please explain thanks

[SouthFloridawx]

so what does all this mean for landfalls for this 2006 storm season, like will this help to steer storms or hurricanes in the gulf or the east coast??? based on what you all our talking about here, please explain thanks

Will at this point this is mearly speculation as I am trying to understand this. I am trying to get some input from other members such as TSZack responded. This in no way means that anything is changing as of yet.

[willjnewton]

but if ridging is over the northeast united states what will that have a impact on hurricanes, like I mean what direction will that steer them in, please explain if you all know what I mean okay, thanks

[Aquawind]

Notice the ridge across the ATL in the last 14 days. Surface analysis. It's a big download.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_A ... _Day.shtml

[willjnewton]

but what does that mean for this 2006 storm season and about the landfalls???

[SouthFloridawx]

but what does that mean for this 2006 storm season and about the landfalls???

so what does all this mean for landfalls for this 2006 storm season, like will this help to steer storms or hurricanes in the gulf or the east coast??? based on what you all our talking about here, please explain thanks

Will at this point this is mearly speculation as I am trying to understand this. I am trying to get some input from other members such as TSZack responded. This in no way means that anything is changing as of yet.

[SouthFloridawx]

Notice the ridge across the ATL in the last 14 days. Surface analysis. It's a big download.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/UA_A ... _Day.shtml

Thanks for that loop Aquawind, I can definitely see what they are talking about by saying troughing as that is pretty clear evidence of it.

[Aquawind]

Yeah you can see the frontal boundries moving further southeastward and a number of frontal boundries fizzling off the SE coast.. Versus solid high pressure to start the loop.

[ronjon]

JB is a big believer in high pressure ridging off the NE is the precursor to tropical development in the Bahamas. I believe this was the case when Katrina and Ophelia formed last year. At the base of the ridging a trough of low pressure forms and this is the "seed" for tropical development. The strong anti-cyclonic winds at the surface to the north of the trough may give it a nudge toward forming a surface circulation. If the high pressure persists, it can steer the storms W or NW into FL or the SE US.

[StrongWind]

so what does all this mean for landfalls for this 2006 storm season, like will this help to steer storms or hurricanes in the gulf or the east coast??? based on what you all our talking about here, please explain thanks

Will at this point this is mearly speculation as I am trying to understand this. I am trying to get some input from other members such as TSZack responded. This in no way means that anything is changing as of yet.

Trying to answer your question as well as my meager understanding of such things allows - Ridging tends to keep storms movong more west and depending on where the ridge is centered toward Fla. or the gulf. Troughs tend to pull storms northward or even northeast.

As to what each means with respect to actual cyclogenisis - - my mouth only has room for one foot at a time.

[rainstorm]

After the past week or so we've seen troughing along the east coast. Now the models are indicating that we may see more ridging over the Northeast. I'm not quite sure how that plays out but, I heard that it helps development in the Atlantic.

Basically I'm asking if another pattern sets up with ridging in the northeast and a ridge in the Atlantic, does that indicate more favorable conditions in the Altantic?

What impact does this have on the season?

hmm, right now we may have a negative nao, but all these maps shown here 6 days away have low pressure over greenland, indicating a positive nao

[Derek Ortt]

Those 30 mph waves are SAL cases

The SAL is not dust alone. It's very dry air, which contains a very strong low-level easterly jet. That is what causes the waves to scream to the west, not the Bermuda high. Thus, a weakening of the Bermuda high is not going to stop the waves from screaming, a reduction of the SAL is needed

[wxmann_91]

Rainstorm, you don't have to quote the original pics.

Anyway, NAO forecasts:

(Changed this to a link since it the image was a little big) http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/gary.bates/tele/nao.gif

Note how the NAO correlated well with the TC formation dates (I think).

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

in 6 days this shows a very POSITIVE nao. no greenland blocking

[wxmann_91]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006081218&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

in 6 days this shows a very POSITIVE nao. no greenland blocking

FWIW the GFS develops a 1040 block at 36 hr.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... 8/slp6.png

I'll wait until the 0Z also dissipates the block. Such a block usually doesn't just dissapear into thin air instantaneously.

[rainstorm]

if there is a neg nao, then there will be no ridge over the northeast, and no pattern change in the atlantic

[rainstorm]

0z still has the positve nao

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr