Large Part of GOM can Support Sub-880-890 mb Category 5s!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Shocking! I have never seen anything like this!
This can occur if other conditions support development
such as high moisture content and lack of shear
and lack of an Upper Level Low with shear and
dry air.
And much of the central Atlantic can also support a
Category 5.
I know I have posted this map and this information in
several threads but I wanted to start a thread on it
because what the GOM could support is just shocking.
What the Central Atlantic could support is also shocking.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well let us all hope that the experts have it right, and most of the storms will not enter the GOM this year. As Max Mayfield says once a storm is in the GOM, it has to effect land somewhere. Which is never a good situation.

[Stratosphere747]

IMO, I would take that chart with a HUGE grain of salt....

There are far too many variables for a cat 5 to be supported. And this chart shows where the most intense hurricanes of all-time *NW Caribbean* as being one of the lesser areas of "Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity" tells you something.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Yes I hope and pray that no storms enter the Gulf of Mexico because any
storms once they enter it could explode into an absolute untempered monster, if all other conditions support development
This could mean very major problems for land areas regarding damage, if
a storm enters the Gulf.

Yes it is unlikely that a storm will reach the maximum potential
intensity...but that map is nevertheless quite ominous.
The NW Caribbean's support capabilities was highest in
September-October of last year? I'm not sure...

[WindRunner]

That map looks like that every year from 1 Aug through 31 Oct practically, and as we have seen, it CAN happen. It is however, an absolute maximum potential intensity.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That map looks like that every year from 1 Aug through 31 Oct practically, and as we have seen, it CAN happen. It is however, an absolute maximum potential intensity.

Ok thanks for the information. This is the first time that I have
watched/tracked that map almost daily throughout the season.
I saw it once every few weeks last year and in 2004, but I have
been looking at it much more frequently this year. If that is
the normal look of that map...I have overreacted...but it is
nevertheless ominous to see those sub-880-890 mb colors
on there...but I agree...it is an absolute maximum potential intensity.

[Jim Cantore]

It came true last year, twice.

[WindRunner]

I know that somewhere I have seen a site that will show you that map from a year ago as well, but I can't seem to find it right now. Maybe someone else can provide some insight as to where that might be found, because it is always an interesting comparison.

[StrongWind]

Also, those are SST's and not thermal content. Those charts show CAT 5+ in the northern GOM. Howerver, while those waters may be steaming they are shallow and cool quickly with a big storm over them.

[wxman57]

It's just displaying what COULD happen under ideal conditions (i.e., no shear). Basically, it just indicates heat content of the ocean. It's August, so the Gulf is warm. But it takes more than warm water to make a hurricane.

[wxmann_91]

Also, those are SST's and not thermal content. Those charts show CAT 5+ in the northern GOM. Howerver, while those waters may be steaming they are shallow and cool quickly with a big storm over them.

Actually, it's both SST and subsfc temps. The maximum intensity has only been exceeded twice in recorded history.

[gtsmith]

Anyone know what data these estimates are based on? BTW: that pocket just west of sofla is quite eye-catching.

[LaBreeze]

With the shear in the GOM nothing will even have the chance to develop. Speaking of shear, does anyone forsee how long it will last? Is there an end to it (hopefully not) any time soon?

[miamicanes177]

the shear in the gulf is actually just 5-10kts at the present time.

[btangy]

As others have said, this is an estimate of the theoretical upper limit a tropical cyclone's intensity can acheive based on thermodynamic considerations alone (i.e. no dynamical considerations such as wind shear). TCs rarely reach their potential intensity. Such examples of hurricanes that got close to or reached their potential intensities include Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Wilma. Hurricane Katrina and (I believe) Hurricane Rita fell short of their potential intensities in the Gulf, which is always very high during the peak hurricane season months (Cat 5+).

[Extremeweatherguy]

Why do I keep hearing all this talk about "HIGH SHEAR"??? This is not the case. Shear in the Atlantic is actually running right on average so far this year.

Latest shear analysis:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[Stormtrack]

Why do I keep hearing all this talk about "HIGH SHEAR"??? This is not the case. Shear in the Atlantic is actually running right on average so far this year.

Latest shear analysis:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Looking at that map, the high shear isn't in the Gulf, it's before the Gulf. A lot of 20-30 mph in the Caribbean. Also, there's a lot of dry air in the Gulf.

[mtm4319]

I thought Rita reached its MPI or pretty close to it, although my memory could be fuzzy.

I heard, believe it or not, that Katrina missed its MPI by 30 or 40 millibars.

[beachbum_al]

All I know is that the GOM is very warm. And it is not just at the top but down aways. My husband went diving on Saturday and they were about 20 to 25 miles out. He said not only was it warm on top of the water but when they even got down it was still warm whereas usually it is cooler the deeper you go.