Hurricane Ioke thread
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Derek Ortt
Hurricane Ioke thread
Last edited by Derek Ortt on Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:02 am, edited 2 times in total.
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cycloneye
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Derek Ortt wrote:also, could we make html available here so I can shorten the link?
Derek made a hypertext link to make it shorter.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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wxmann_91
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CrazyC83 wrote:I think what we are seeing is a pattern similar to 1996 with El Nino starting up (but it will be too late to affect the 2006 season too much). That means 2007 will (I think) be a fairly quiet year in the Atlantic - and an insane year in the Pacific.
Actually, we've already have as many named storms in the EPAC this year as there was in the entire year of 1996.
I think you mean 1997.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
LLC has formed on quickscat elongated some but its there. Also three bars-30 knots. TD soon enough.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _cp_0.html
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _cp_0.html
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Scorpion
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Derek Ortt
Scorpion wrote:I don't see how a storm forming in the CPAC can induce shear over the Atlantic. The warm SST's in the Atlantic should counteract any El Nino that forms.
It isn't the storm forming by itself that worries me. The CPAC is very quiet on a seasonal basis. Usually an upper trough sits over the region and doesn't allow anything to form. To get significant systems there.. you must have a rather large change in the circulation pattern. This means having a stronger-than-average upper high over the region... and more low-level westerly flow than average. Unfortunately these things happen in the central pacific most commonly with El Nino... or a really strong MJO that alters the environment. I'm not saying it is the doom of the season.. but if you look at a list of Central Pacific storm formation years... (or hurricane) during the summer... it isn't a pretty list.
I don't know if the warm Atlc SSTs will counteract any El Nino... the atmosphere is more complex than that. I'm starting to feel like the season may favor less storms in the deep tropics and more in the mid-latitudes... but just a gut feeling.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
Darn it theres a trough/Tutt like system right ahead of it. Iin shearing it. I don't care where the hurricanes form just give me hurricanes. I don't care if they form the south Atlatnic,central Pacific,western pacific,Indian ocean. Heck as long as there is something the Atlatnic can be as dead as a door nail. Theres good in the Atlanitc because of the recon,radar,buoys. Which adds to the info...Which is the main reason why I went hurricanes to form in the Atlantic.
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