NHC Director Max Mayfield: Atlantic Bell About to Ring

[MWatkins]

This was released on the Reuters news wire a couple of hours ago.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060820/sc_ ... ricanes_dc

Hey Max is now on the record.

MW

[Regit]

Very good article. Thanks for posting.

I see absolutely no reason to disagree with anything he said.

[cycloneye]

Mayfield expressed puzzlement as to why the season hasn't been a little more active.

"We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said.


Interesting last two sentences from him about the inactivity of the season until now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That wave/distrabance coming off Africa looks very good...I also think it might become something. But what has been kiling the other systems is mid level dry air+shear. IMHO.

[MGC]

The answer is simple. All of the disturbances have had the misfortune of being in an environment that was not conducive to TC formation. Too much shear or dry air. I think Max is right, the bell is gonna sound soon.......MGC

[temujin]

I'm no authority on these matters, but it seems to me that there would be an incredible amount of energy in the oceans right now, since there haven't been any hurricanes yet to draw out the heat. Once storms do start to form, they stand a good chance of becoming strong because of all that untapped energy.

[HouTXmetro]

I'd have to see it to believe it. 2006 seems to be marching to it's own beat and I see no reason that will change.

[ConvergenceZone]

yep, and I think that bell is going to sound starting this week....All the signs are there like the article says...thanx a bunch for digging this article up!

[ConvergenceZone]

I love his quote at the end

""We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said.


I think that's why so many of us have had such frustrated postings. We just aren't use to this...At least I feel better knowing that we are in good company from a reputable forecaster......

[rainstorm]

Mayfield expressed puzzlement as to why the season hasn't been a little more active.

"We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said.


Interesting last two sentences from him about the inactivity of the season until now.

thats hard to believe he said that. even we on the board here can say dry air, african dust and shear have killed development so far

[Regit]

Mayfield expressed puzzlement as to why the season hasn't been a little more active.

"We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said.


Interesting last two sentences from him about the inactivity of the season until now.

thats hard to believe he said that. even we on the board here can say dry air, african dust and shear have killed development so far

Well I think that should tell us there might be more to it. Weather is rarely that simple anyway.

[ConvergenceZone]

Mayfield expressed puzzlement as to why the season hasn't been a little more active.

"We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said.


Interesting last two sentences from him about the inactivity of the season until now.

thats hard to believe he said that. even we on the board here can say dry air, african dust and shear have killed development so far

Rain, while that might be true that it SLOWS DOWN development, there have been plenty of seasons in the past there the storms still overcame these conditions(and I'm not talking about last year). It doesn't mean they aren't going to develop. It just means they may have a tougher time getting that strong, but this year, they haven't been develooping at ALL, and I think that's what he puzzled about. There's always some shear and dry air around, but most of the time, the storms have a way of getting going in spite of those conditions(at least some of them do).

[ConvergenceZone]

I'd have to see it to believe it. 2006 seems to be marching to it's own beat and I see no reason that will change.

you seen no reason it will chance? How about conditions are becoming more favorable and we are heading into September? 2 very good reasons that it will change....The signs are there, so yes, there's plenty of reasons to believe it will change.

[rainstorm]

i dont want to be too critical of max, but every day steve lyons has been saying shear, dry air and dust is killing development. its fairly obvious.

perhaps mr mayfield is puzzled about WHY there has been so much shear dust and dry air

[Regit]

i dont want to be too critical of max, but every day steve lyons has been saying shear, dry air and dust is killing development. its fairly obvious.

perhaps mr mayfield is puzzled about WHY there has been so much shear dust and dry air

Steve Lyons' target audience doesn't have a clue about meteorology. He's not going to get technical. If he spent minutes explaining all the things going on, ratings would fall like a rock.

[rainstorm]

true, but i dont think its a huge secret why no canes have developed so far. it could be things are looking better now, however

[wxmann_91]

You guys do have to realize that Max Mayfield's audience is the public too. He's gonna say we have no idea why because if he explained the idea why, nobody'd care except for the .01% of the population who knows a lot about weather.

[ConvergenceZone]

i dont want to be too critical of max, but every day steve lyons has been saying shear, dry air and dust is killing development. its fairly obvious.

perhaps mr mayfield is puzzled about WHY there has been so much shear dust and dry air

I like Steve as a person, he seems like a good guy, but I can't count the number of times his predictions have been way off on storms. I know numerous times he's never called for development and then boom 2 days later there's a tropical depression out there. Steve's okay, or perhaps this just goes to show and nobody can say one way or the other...
I miss John Hope. Now there's a man who knew his stuff!!!!!

[MWatkins]

Max noted that conditions in the Eastern Atlantic are favorable...which they pretty much are.

Steve L is probably talking about the western atlantic...where yep...conditions are hostile for now.

MW

[rainstorm]

thats a good point. perhaps mr mayfield is talking to a alrger audience that doesnt pay attention like we do