Recon says probable cane

[Derek Ortt]

URNT12 KNHC 150016
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/0016Z
B. 27 DEG 40 MIN N
93 DEG 36 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1321 M
D. 75 KT
E. 092 DEG 22 NM
F. 188 DEG 70 KT
G. 096 DEG 013 NM
H. 988 MB
I. 13 C/ 1532 M
J. 20 C/ 1531 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/08
O. 0.2/2 NM
P. AF980 2104A CLAUDETTE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 70 KT NE QUAD 0011Z.

[vbhoutex]

According to that vortex message she is!! Let's see if they go ahead and call it now or wait.

[Stormsfury]

That's very strange that the estimated surface wind based on wave action (75kts) is actually higher than the flight-level winds ... RECON also shows no eye on the 0016z pass ...

I still think we're looking at what could become Hurricane Claudette at 10 pm CDT ...

[wxman57]

Stormsfury,

The plane is at 850mb (5000ft or so). They could be measuring 70kts at that height and have a dropwindsonde reading of 75kts. They're not converting from 850mb to sfc winds, most likely.

[Stormsfury]

Stormsfury,

The plane is at 850mb (5000ft or so). They could be measuring 70kts at that height and have a dropwindsonde reading of 75kts. They're not converting from 850mb to sfc winds, most likely.

I thought that the 75kts winds were estimated surface winds based on wave action ... (that 75kt wind was on line D in the Vortex Message)

[Derek Ortt]

The 75 KT is estimated. However, typically, in high wind events as this, this value is below the actual value.

However, an upgrade does not seem likely as the models wer einitialized with 55KT and a 988mb pressure. Ther estimate seems to have been an error as wind analyses of the storm indicate this is still a tropical storm

[JetMaxx]

It certainly looks impressive on the HGX 248 n mi scope:

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS ... latest.gif

[rainstorm]

great update

[Steve Cosby]

The 75KT surface report from recon was not even acknowledged in the TPC's discussion. With the pressure down to the point it is and continuing to deepen, I don't see what the harm would be in calling it a hurricane right now. I mean, people are going to bed down there right now. The word "hurricane" might cause at least a few of them to go ahead and get the car going Northwest. The pressure is down there and the recon is reporting surface winds at that level. Just because the 850mb flight level winds are not quite high enough shouldn't really make the determination.

Am I way off base here?