18z NAM takes 97L into PR and the Dominican Republic

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Trugunzn]

If that were to happen it would be history! Shear and dry air will kill it and landfall interaction same time.

[gatorcane]

wow its taking it NW pretty quick.......

[Thunder44]

It's very unlikely to get that far north that soon. And this is the 18z NAM, nothing stunning.

[SouthAlabamaWX]

The NAM is having some problems. Last week, it developed two tropical systems in the Gulf. This morning, it shows the mid and upper low currently in the Gulf developing a surface low and moving north to Mobile and Pensacola. Now it moves the system too far north too fast. I would discount the NAM.

[caribepr]

I will happily discount NAM. Otherwise, a lovely evening in Paradox.

[crown]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/18/index_slp_l_loop.shtml

Isn't there already an 97L thread in which this should be published? Too many files to read!!

[Weathermaster]

I do not what is happening but GFS, NAM and GFDL and mmf5su are splitting the system or forming two vortex, taking one of the over PR and DR. Is there a possibilty that the system split in two?

[caribepr]

I'd like to see the reply to this question above, in one thread or the other (where it perhaps should be?)

[btangy]

I wouldn't trust the NAM near its boundaries. The region of predictability collapses to a smaller domain as the model runs forward in time. This is why the NAM isn't very good in the tropics in the first place.