Ok folks.. Place your bets.. where's #5 going?

[Josephine96]

Since we know we now have either #5 or Ernesto... Where's he eventually going to go..

1st guess.. Into the Gulf, and either Alabama or Mississippi..

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

big bend FL

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yucatan

[canegrl04]

If it survives the trek-into the GOM and Ernesto gets ErNASTO

[Comanche]

between Brownsville and Corpus

[temujin]

big bend FL

Ditto

[stormernie]

Eastern Cuba, Florida Keys and up to the Gulf Coast near Mississippi, Alabama.

[brunota2003]

I'm betting it goes somewhere

[Portastorm]

Tampico, Mexico to Port Isabel, Texas

I think the ridge of high pressure -- which has baked us all summer long -- stays strong forcing the storm south.

[Buck]

Texas coast... possibly LA.

[Acral]

Mexico/Texas 1st probability, unless recurve set up then *gulp* around my neck of the woods.

[Steve]

Depends on the relative strength of the system and its early tradjectory. CMC, the main developer, moved south in the 12z runs closer to Corpus than Galveston. Weird thing is, it doesn't have a blocking high on the North Gulf (meaning there didn't seem to be much to keep it going WNW across the GOM). GFS, no closed isobars (as usual) has it tracking closer to Miami. Earliest thoughts would be some type of Mexico-Texas hit should it remain relatively weak for its trek through the Caribbean. East Gulf may be more likely if it comes up closer to the Greater Antilles, unless it comes up and bends and hits Miami. Then it's a Louisiana or Mississippi problem.

I'm thinking Central Texas Coast, but with a week out, that isn't worth the time it took me to type this post. I'm going to be more interested when the 00z models get initialized with a system there to actually track rather than a wave.

Steve

[Brent]

I'm going to say Texas right now(it's been my feeling for a day now), but it could go anywhere.

[SouthFloridawx]

I would tell you where I think it should go but, I will probably get banned.

[Steve]

>>I would tell you where I think it should go but, I will probably get banned.

Would that be hell, or the Norfolk area of Virginia.



Steve

[storms in NC]

Where it goes it goes. Nothing we can do to change it. The Island have to worry about this frist. Then we can go from there. It seem some forget the people on these Island. They have no where to go but to ride it out and hope for the best. Stay safe you all in the Island in it's path.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Somewhere between Mexico, Texas and South Florida.

[SouthFloridawx]

>>

I would tell you where I think it should go but, I will probably get banned.

Would that be hell, or the Norfolk area of Virginia.

Steve

The first of the two but, I would be using much worse words than that. LOL

[Scorpion]

The GFDL may be on to something... who knows. I am not going to pick a CONUS landfall point just yet. But Cuba seems almost certain.

[BayouVenteux]

FWIW, while I have thoughts based on all I've read both here and at other stops on the web, I'm going to hold out for a few days on landfall conjectures of any sort to see if this yet- to-be-named entity even makes it through the eastern and cental Caribbean intact.

Despite this system's currently improving look on the VIS this afternoon, remembering 2004's "Earl" and the multitude of "green light" predictions as it moved past the Windward Islands puts me squarely in "yellow light" mode at this point.