Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Evil Jeremy]

Thread #1

Thread #2

Thread #3

Thread #4

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

OooOoo. I don't like that at all!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

EJ, my gut is telling me the same thing as i sit here and watch the Dolphins loose their 2nd Pre-Season game out of 3!!!

they stink! just like our luck with Hurricanes LOL!!!!!

[Bailey1777]

It will change again in the morning, don't worry. Heading West at 18 track will slide back West.

[linkerweather]

No but the mets on here are saying look West young man. Things will change of course but that is the majority opinion of the pro's here right now.

Well, I have been a bit too busy with our general thunderstorms and of course the tropics to post here. But, after reading a few posts from the last few hours, I must say that even in most cases this would be WAY to early to even estimate a guess for landfall. In this particular storm scenario, there are, unfortunately several seemingly plausible scenarios regarding the synoptic pattern across the W. Atlantic, W. Caribbean, and GOM. With that said, IMO, it is extremely irresponsible to make a landfall "forecast" or even guess if you are someone who has a concrete background in meteorology. Folks, we are talking about something that would be 7 days away if Florida or even 9 or 10 days away if Texas. Also, keep in mind that in its early stages we will likely see center re-locations and reformations, etc. Thus leading to problems with model initialization.

Making non-professional guesses is fun, I suppose, but I am admittedly surprised with the inferred degree of certainty from some of the other pros here.

Forgive my rant, now back to my other duties here at work.

[Evil Jeremy]

Local Met said it ALL depends on the ridge if the ridge is Strong then it goes west. If it weakens then it could, COULD turn more North. Pretty much what we already knew. He said right now Florida isn't the most likely area to be affected.

key words: right now!

[Javlin]

The latest 00z Nam rolling in is on board and resembling more the GFDL,GFS, and to some extent the dynamical models. Its becoming a little more clear and now consistently advertised by several of the "big guns" in the world of weather models that this system may be significantly impacted by a weakness/troughiness to the north and west over Florida and a ULL over the western carribean. The forecasted synoptic environment to the North and NW of the storm as well as developments in the western carribean may induce a more NW movement and potentially pose a threat to the Greater antilles, Cuba, Florida. As usual the devil is in the details.


Nam 8/25 00z:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

That not NW thats like NNW and real soon like.Just do not see that coming yet.

[Rainband]

It will change again in the morning, don't worry. Heading West at 18 track will slide back West.

Seems like you should be worrying if thats the case. I would be hoping this wouldn't go near me.

[Extremeweatherguy]

well I think I am going to say goodbye to TD#5 tonight and see what it is doing in the morning. A lot will change over the next few days; ATM really ANYTHING could happen. Just keep in mind that the forecast track beyond day 5 is highly variable (especially with systems such as this), so I wouldn't buy into one solid scenario right now.

[rockyman]

While recon was still in the system this afternoon, I was telling people at my office that 20/85 was our benchmark to worry here on Dauphin Island (north of 20 before reaching 85 might mean trouble)...Then the first advisory was issued, calling for 20.5/85 (and I commenced worrying)...The latest track now shows 22/85, a full 1.5 degrees north of the previous track

[Stratosphere747]

I will not quote your post Rock, as that has been an underlying problem this evening.

But Rocky's map, while generic and lacking of many models, only had one updated track, which was the 8pm Bam.

Guess what? It shifted a tad to the north, and yet for some reason arguments were over the timestamps on this mornings and afternoons runs.

Still way to early...

You and I both know that....

[6SpeedTA95]

Local met here said that the ridge would weaken and shift west a bit allowing the storm to slip up between the yucatan and cuba. Kinda what a lot of the other models are showing.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

It will change again in the morning, don't worry. Heading West at 18 track will slide back West.

I'm with you on that one, how many times did rita go back and forth...

[Extremeweatherguy]

No but the mets on here are saying look West young man. Things will change of course but that is the majority opinion of the pro's here right now.

Well, I have been a bit too busy with our general thunderstorms and of course the tropics to post here. But, after reading a few posts from the last few hours, I must say that even in most cases this would be WAY to early to even estimate a guess for landfall. In this particular storm scenario, there are, unfortunately several seemingly plausible scenarios regarding the synoptic pattern across the W. Atlantic, W. Caribbean, and GOM. With that said, IMO, it is extremely irresponsible to make a landfall "forecast" or even guess if you are someone who has a concrete background in meteorology. Folks, we are talking about something that would be 7 days away if Florida or even 9 or 10 days away if Texas. Also, keep in mind that in its early stages we will likely see center re-locations and reformations, etc. Thus leading to problems with model initialization.

Making non-professional guesses is fun, I suppose, but I am admittedly surprised with the inferred degree of certainty from some of the other pros here.

Forgive my rant, now back to my other duties here at work.

According to the NHC speed it would be 5 days from FL and 7-8 from Texas.

[Bailey1777]

Rainband we all need to worry I just see everytime the track changes people from those locations start talking of a hit and we know the models are going to go left again and right and straight and throw in backwards.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Rainband we all need to worry I just see everytime the track changes people from those locations start talking of a hit and we know the models are going to go left again and right and straight and throw in backwards.

Of course. They'll go back and forth for days, especially with a system this far out.

[rockyman]

Many, many, MANY storms have crossed that same boiling water and have not attained extreme Cat 5 status...you're gonna have to come up with more than "warm water" and "deceasing shear" to forecast a storm that would be one of the strongest ever in the Atlantic Basin

[Air Force Met]

One reason I think that track is too far north is I think it is too slow. It's 1400 nm over 120 hours....that's an average speed of only 12 knots. Given it is moving at 17 knots now...that's a lot of slowing down. So...I think it will be further west when the ridge slides east at day 5...thus a further left track...less of a 300 heading at day 5...more of a 290 and further west...

just a guess...

[NONAME]

Just to Tell people that there right this is definitly not 2005or 2004 or any other year such as all the other years before 2006 because there has never been a hurricane season that has been the same so quit sayin it not 2005 anymore. No year can realisticly be compared to another.

[rockyman]

AFM, it seems that GFDL keeps the system moving along at a fast clip...but it still takes it further north...I remember reading earlier this evening that GFDL often added shear as an extra steering push...but if GFDL is forecasting this shear, why would it crank the system up to a strong hurricane?