Winter Outlook...

[aggiecutter]

This is my first post since last March. I've been real busy over the summer and havent had a chance to look at any of the early prognostications for the coming winter. I already know what JB will say. It'll be colder than normal in the east. Anyone got any links or personal opinions on what might happen for the coming winter in the southern plains. BTW, I looked over a couple threads and saw where ExtremeWeatherGuy is trying to get a snowstorm down in Houston in late August. Persistence, Persistence, Persistence.

[CaptinCrunch]

Good to hear from you aggiecutter, I also have been pretty busy this summer and with a weak HC season there really hasn't been much to talk about, but as winter approaches things will start to happen with our NTX weather patteren that may be surprising.

I stated back on Aug 22 that a weak to moderate El Nino would take shape for the U.S. http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88556 and the NOAA CPC has agreed.

Sept. 13, 2006 — Scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center reported today that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are likely to continue into early 2007. Ocean temperatures increased remarkably in the equatorial Pacific during the last two weeks. "Currently, weak El Niño conditions exist, but there is a potential for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter," said Vernon Kousky, NOAA's lead El Niño forecaster.

A weak El Nino will bring about a winter of avg to above avg precip and avg temps, while a moderate El Nino will bring above avg precip and avg to below avg temps do to more cloud cover and higher amounts precip. El Nino winters also bring a better than avg chance of seeing snow/ice events for NTX as the NJS trend to have more ridging in the NW and dips down across the Central and Southern Rockies as upper lows tend to form along the warm moist SJS riding up into SW Texas.

As always I will do a NTX Winter Outlook for 06/07 and hope to have it posted by Mid November.

[gboudx]

Looking forward to your outlook CC. Right now, I'm just enjoying the rain we're getting and these cooler temps. It's gonna take a lot more to ease the drought restrictions, but maybe by year end, we'll see some progress on that front.