Tropical Depression 2-C in WPAC

[WmE]

And another invest in the Cpac

1015 AM HST THU SEP 14 2006

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

There is an area of active thunderstorms along portion of the inter tropical convergence zone, some 700 to 1200 miles southeast of the Big Island or generally between 13N and 06N from 137W to 151W. The thunderstorms have come and go in this area during the past 12 hours. Most current satellite loop show signs of a disturbance near 11N 146W or 880 miles southeast of Hilo Hawaii.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday afternoon.

[StormScanWx]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

This is still INVEST 94C.

[WmE]

400 AM HST MON SEP 18 2006

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

An area of disturbed weather 750 miles south of Kona Hawaii was moving west near 10 mph. Thunderstorms have increased in this area over the past few hours. This area is be monitored as conditions may become more favorable for further development over the next few days.

Elsewhere, Tropical storm formation is not expected through Tuesday

[WmE]

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP942006) ON 20060918 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060918 1800 060919 0600 060919 1800 060920 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 155.1W 10.0N 157.5W 10.2N 159.9W 10.5N 162.2W
BAMM 9.8N 155.1W 10.0N 157.3W 10.3N 159.5W 10.8N 161.5W
LBAR 9.8N 155.1W 10.0N 157.4W 10.0N 159.8W 10.3N 162.1W
SHIP 25KTS 38KTS 50KTS 60KTS
DSHP 25KTS 38KTS 50KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060920 1800 060921 1800 060922 1800 060923 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.9N 164.1W 12.2N 167.3W 13.9N 168.7W 15.4N 168.2W
BAMM 11.4N 163.4W 12.9N 166.6W 14.6N 168.3W 16.0N 168.8W
LBAR 10.6N 163.9W 12.8N 167.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 68KTS 72KTS 69KTS 63KTS
DSHP 68KTS 72KTS 69KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 155.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 153.0W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 151.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Coredesat]

18/1800 UTC 9.8N 155.2W T1.5/1.5 94C

[WmE]

Looking good. This could very well become TD 2-C or Kika.

[Coredesat]

TCFA!

WTPN21 PHNC 191930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 153.6W TO 10.1N 159.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 155.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 9.8N 155.1W, APPROXIMATELY
640 NM SOUTH OF HILO, HAWAII, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A
181621Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 181629Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 1004MB. BASED ON INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191930Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Floater is over the system.

[WindRunner]

Needs some more deep convection around the center, but yes, looking good. Doesn't appear to be a threat to land in the coming days: Colorado State Model map

[WindRunner]

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (CP022006) ON 20060919 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060919 0000 060919 1200 060920 0000 060920 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.9N 156.6W 10.2N 159.1W 10.4N 161.6W 10.8N 163.8W
BAMM 9.9N 156.6W 10.2N 158.9W 10.7N 161.1W 11.2N 163.2W
LBAR 9.9N 156.6W 10.0N 158.9W 10.2N 161.3W 10.6N 163.5W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 52KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 42KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060921 0000 060922 0000 060923 0000 060924 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.4N 165.8W 12.8N 168.9W 14.0N 170.6W 15.6N 170.1W
BAMM 11.9N 165.1W 13.5N 168.3W 14.9N 170.0W 16.3N 170.3W
LBAR 11.5N 165.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 60KTS 68KTS 68KTS 64KTS
DSHP 60KTS 68KTS 68KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 156.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 153.9W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 152.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


TD-2! And forecast to become a hurricane in 72h!

[cycloneye]

But as always,storm2k waits for the official word from the NOAA folks,in this case from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center to change titles of threads.We do this because there are lliability issues involved I am sure and we certainly are not the OFFICIAL weather site for anyone.

[JonathanBelles]

now noname at NRL

[WindRunner]

Of course

It's still exciting, though, being the first Two-C since 2002. Definately a sign of the conditions in the CPAC right now.

[CrazyC83]

Another Ioke?

[mtm4319]

Another Ioke?

If Two-C becomes as strong as Ioke, or as long-lasting, I will eat my hat. This is like saying "Another Katrina?" or "Another Wilma?" after every tropical depression that forms in the Atlantic.

[JonathanBelles]

Another Ioke?

simple answer, no, ioke was phenominal

[WindRunner]

Well, I can see a comparison to Ioke as of this point, look at the models for TD 1C:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/06082001

Peak at 72kts 96h from declaration? Ummm, no. Even the first set as a TS peaked at 77kts 48h from the first TS Ioke run: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/06082007

Also note how far off the path is from what really happened - BAMD is right on at the beginning, with BAMM a little too far south. If the same plays out with TD Two-C, then we could have a very low rider into the WPAC if the northward turn around 96h doesn't pan out.

[Cyclenall]

Well, this should be fun to track. I love Cpac systems because they are neat. Hopefully TD2-C will overcome the ITCZ.

[cycloneye]

A43 PHFO 190243
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022006
500 PM HST MON SEP 18 2006

THAT AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR DAYS HAS FINALLY GOTTEN ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE SECOND ONE OF THE SEASON HERE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE CONVECTION THAT FLARED LATE LAST NIGHT HAS DIMINISHED SOME TODAY...BUT FROM A MORNING QUICKSCAT PASS IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A DECENT SURFACE CIRCULATION IS IN PLACE. IN FACT QUICKSCAT DATA INDICATED A QUITE A FEW 35KT...ALBEIT RAIN FLAGGED...WIND BARBS AROUND THE CIRCULATION. WITH THE DEMISE OF CONVECTION SOME TODAY AND THE POORER LOOK ON SATELLITE...WILL START TD-2C AT A POTENTIALLY QUITE CONSERVATIVE 25KT.

TD-2C IS IN A SIMILAR AREA TO WHERE IOKE GOT ITS BIRTH...AND THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR. VERY WARM WATER AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 10KT. CIRRUS FROM THE SYSTEM SHOW DECENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ONLY NEGATIVE IS THAT THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF ITCZ CONVECTION WITHIN 10 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. SUBSIDENCE AROUND THAT CONVECTION MAY BE HAMPERING TD-2C DEVELOPMENT.

SOME MIXED SIGNALS WITH THE NEAR TERM FUTURE OF TD-2C ESPECIALLY WITH INTENSITY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE IS NOT AS GUNG-HO ON DEVELOPING IT MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...PERHAPS THIS IS DUE TO ITS PULSE DOWNWARD THIS MORNING. SURPRISINGLY EVEN THE GFDL...WHICH ACCURATELY PORTRAYED THE RAPID SPIN UP OF IOKE...IS LESS THAN ENTHUSIASTIC WITH TD-2C THRU 60HRS. IT KEEPS IT AS A TD/WEAK TS BEFORE FINALLY STRENGTHENING IT TO A STRONG TS THEN HURRICANE AFTER 96HRS. SHIPS GUIDANCE STEADILY STRENGTHENS IT TO TS IN 18HRS THEN TO MINIMAL HURRICANE IN 60HRS. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EARLIER SHIPS GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING A 60 TO 80% LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (25KT INCREASE WITHIN 24HRS) BUT THE 00Z SHIPS WAS DOWN TO 36% CHANCE DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION.

DUE TO CONVECTION STILL WITH ITCZ...HAVE GIVEN CREDENCE TO A SLIGHTLY SLOWER START TO TD-2C. EXPECT IT TO CUT THE UMBILICAL CORD TO THE ITCZ TOMORROW AND AT THAT TIME WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP QUITE QUICKLY. WILL PROJECT HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HRS. IF IT CAN NOT GET AWAY FROM THE ITCZ...IT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF A LIFE. AFTER THAT MAKE OR BREAK TIME...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS 15N BETWEEN 160W AND 175W AND MAKING FOR A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SORTA LIKE WHAT WE HAD WITH IOKE...SO DONT SEE ANY REASON FOR THE STORM TO NOT TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING HOWEVER I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BE FORECASTING A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS EARLY OUT. AS A RESULT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND A LITTLE WEAKER THAN SHIPS THRU 24HRS...THEN CLOSE TO SHIPS IN THE MID TERM AND THEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE AFTER 72HRS.

TRACK-WISE...MUCH MORE CONSISTENCY WITH VARIOUS MODELS...GENERALLY A WNW TRACK THRU THE PERIOD. DID SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED DOWN AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE EXPECTED HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A LIGHTER STEERING FLOW DUE TO THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ON THE PROJECTED COURSE...THE SYSTEM WOULD PASS SAFELY OVER 200 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ATOLL LATE THURSDAY. HOWEVER INTERESTS AROUND JOHNSTON SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS FROM CPHC.

FOR WHAT IT MATTERS...IF TD-2C CAN ACHIEVE 35KTS IT WILL BE NAMED KIKA (KEE-KAH)...EMPHASIS ON FIRST SYLLABLE. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF MEANINGS FOR THIS WORD...AS A NOUN IT MEANS A SMALL OPELU FISH AND AS A VERB ONE MEANING IS STRONG AND ENERGETIC. THE VERB FORM IS THE ONE THAT WOULD BE MOST FITTING...ESPECIALLY IF IT DECIDES TO BECOME A HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 10.0N 157.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 10.4N 159.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 10.7N 161.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 11.2N 163.2W 55 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 11.9N 165.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 13.7N 168.6W 75 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 15.3N 172.3W 80 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 16.4N 175.3W 80 KT


$$
FORECASTER NASH