TIME-SENSITIVE Helene Model Map

Scott_inVA · #1 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 8:59 pm

Occasionally share previous model maps from the Premium Service side of the Mid-Atlantic WX.com site but want to make this available:

Note: Growing trend with GFS to shift the TC west. Given numerous missions today I was wondering if the 0Z hurricane models would likewise shift west...clearly they have.

I suspect the 11PM and 5AM TPC F/As will *substantially* shift west as well.

Second trof coming off CONUS next week remains a KEY player on how this pans out. FWIW, since Wednesday in my blog I've been suggesting the automatic recurve is not a given. Today's flights have provided essential data which the GFS seems to be handling. Does it scare the crap out of FL then blast OBX? Right now I have my doubts...but urge folks to consider this probably will not be a central Atlantic fish. There is a way Helene can hit FL, the Mid-Atlantic or even New England! I think a near miss is more likely, but keep all your cards on the table.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
http://www.midatlanticwx.com
Lexington, VA

#2 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:04 pm

thats a pretty interesting thought there...I dont see it getting as far west as shown...however, this season has just been plain weird...so pretty much anything is possible at this stage...BTW...its GFS, not GSF

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:13 pm

brunota2003 wrote:thats a pretty interesting thought there...I dont see it getting as far west as shown...however, this season has just been plain weird...so pretty much anything is possible at this stage...BTW...its GFS, not GSF

I am sure it was a typo.

Scott_inVA · #4 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:13 pm

brunota2003 wrote:thats a pretty interesting thought there...I dont see it getting as far west as shown...however, this season has just been plain weird...so pretty much anything is possible at this stage...BTW...its GFS, not GSF

I certainly am not on the EC landfall bandwagon (yet), and have been forecasting a stronger than progged Ridge (assuming trof placement is correct). Key to these tracks long range is also nailing trof placment...along or off EC and it's a fish (consistent with much of the season). If Helene does stay W/WNW and misses the first trof, she remains WNW...put that second trof along the Alleghanies or draped down the Ohio and Tennessee Valley and we have the potential for a huge problem. I can't tell you how it times out right now.

typo :wink:

Scott

vacanechaser · #5 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:19 pm

i guess the question i have here is, did the data get in on this run????? or would it not go inon the 00z run??? that should be the key i think.... if the 00z continues west and threaten the ec, wow, what a change.. just unsure yet

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

#6 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:20 pm

Scott_inVA wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:thats a pretty interesting thought there...I dont see it getting as far west as shown...however, this season has just been plain weird...so pretty much anything is possible at this stage...BTW...its GFS, not GSF

I certainly am not on the EC landfall bandwagon (yet), and have been forecasting a stronger than progged Ridge (assuming trof placement is correct). Key to these tracks long range is also nailing trof placment...along of off EC and it's a fish (consistent with much of the season). If Helene does stay W/WNW and misses the first trof, she remains WNW...put that second trof along the Alleghanies or draped down the Ohio and Tennessee Valley and we have the potential for a huge problem. I can't tell you how it times out right now.

typo

Scott

I know it was a typo...just giving you a hard time... :lol:

Yes...I hate the troughs...still even today cant place them only three days out with 100% certainty...let alone 11 days out...wish we could...then we would know where everything was going to go 11 days out...however that would make everyday life boring IMHO as if we could predict everything 100% of the time...you wouldnt be caught in a thunderstorm while trying to get to your car etc...

#7 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:21 pm

vacanechaser wrote:i guess the question i have here is, did the data get in on this run????? or would it not go inon the 00z run??? that should be the key i think.... if the 00z continues west and threaten the ec, wow, what a change.. just unsure yet

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I believe, from what I heard, some of the data got into the 18Z...however the rest should be in the 00Z...not sure though...
EDIT: from the 5 PM discussion:

THE TRACK
FORECAST DEPICTED HERE IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PERHAPS WITH THE MODEL ASSIMILATION OF THE SALEX DROPWINDSONDES...
THE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL BE REDUCED IN THE NEXT FORECAST
CYCLE.

I'm assuming the next forecast cycle is the 00Z cycle? is that correct?

#8 Postby **Noah** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:26 pm

Are we suspecting a florida landfall?

vacanechaser · #9 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:31 pm

Noah wrote:Are we suspecting a florida landfall?

no gfs, threatens florida, but slams it into nc and va then into what appears to be jersy.... something to watch... would not bet on it right now....

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:37 pm

Right now it's only one run and I am not concerned at all. But if gfs keeps on the west trend I will pay attention.

#11 Postby **Noah** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:38 pm

Rainband wrote:Right now it's only one run and I am not concerned at all. But if gfs keeps on the west trend I will pay attention.

I will keep an eye on your concern rainband, where in florida are you?

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:39 pm

Noah wrote:
Rainband wrote:Right now it's only one run and I am not concerned at all. But if gfs keeps on the west trend I will pay attention.

I will keep an eye on your concern rainband, where in florida are you?

I am not concerned

#13 Postby **Noah** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:40 pm

Rainband wrote:
Noah wrote:
Rainband wrote:Right now it's only one run and I am not concerned at all. But if gfs keeps on the west trend I will pay attention.

I will keep an eye on your concern rainband, where in florida are you?
I am not concerned

Ok, then i will pay attention more if you do.. is that better? :oops:

Scott_inVA · #14 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:42 pm

vacanechaser wrote:i guess the question i have here is, did the data get in on this run????? or would it not go inon the 00z run??? that should be the key i think.... if the 00z continues west and threaten the ec, wow, what a change.. just unsure yet

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse,

The SAL "CV" Missions are in the depicted 18Z GFS. I believe the data is ingested in the 0Z "tropicals".

Scott

Rainband · #15 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:46 pm

Noah wrote:
Rainband wrote:
Noah wrote:
Rainband wrote:Right now it's only one run and I am not concerned at all. But if gfs keeps on the west trend I will pay attention.

I will keep an eye on your concern rainband, where in florida are you?
I am not concerned

Ok, then i will pay attention more if you do.. is that better?

no need to be :oops:

The tropics do crazy things but I will bet the Bucs win the superbowl before Helene hits Florida :wink:

#16 Postby **fci** » Sat Sep 16, 2006 11:41 pm

Didn't they already win the Super Bowl?

TampaSteve · #17 Postby **TampaSteve** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:39 am

fci wrote:Didn't they already win the Super Bowl?

HAHAHAHAHA...yeah...but I think he means this season's Super Bowl...the Bucs got crushed 27-donut in their home opener against Baltimore, so they're not feeling too good right now...hopefully their game today against Atlanta will turn out better...

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:43 am

Are we talking about the models or about football? Sports has it's own forum,so if the members want to talk about any sport go here.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=17

TampaSteve · #19 Postby **TampaSteve** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:43 am

Folks...are we talking about Helene pulling a Floyd???

I still think she's going fishing, though...

TampaSteve · #20 Postby **TampaSteve** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:45 am

cycloneye wrote:Are we talking about the models or about football? Sports has it's own forum,so if the members want to talk about any sport go here.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=17

Just clarifying Rainband's comment...and there's a SPORTS forum on here??? :lol:

TIME-SENSITIVE Helene Model Map

TIME-SENSITIVE Helene Model Map

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