WPAC - Xangsane - ~200 deaths in the Philippines

[HURAKAN]

WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW FORMER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0614 YAGI (0614) 988 HPA
AT 42N 164E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 35 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 42N 164E TO 41N 167E 37N 172E.
COLD FRONT FROM 42N 164E TO 40N 165E 35N 161E 32N 155E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 49N 172E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 150
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1006 HPA
AT 29N 139E WESTNORTHWEST OF CHICHIJIMA MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 29N 139E TO 30N 140E 31N 144E.
COLD FRONT FROM 29N 139E TO 27N 138E 25N 135E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 45N 148E 51N 157E
60N 165E 60N 180E 40N 180E 44N 160E 45N 148E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 48N 153E SE 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 106E WEST SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 129E WEST SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 10N 173E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 46N 139E SSE 25 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 37N 178E SE 30 KT.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 55N 180E ESE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 37N 172E TO 35N 174E 33N 177E 33N 180E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ//TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250551Z SEP 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 11.7N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 11.8N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.1N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 12.8N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.8N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.0N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 128.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, HAS REMIANED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 250551Z SEP 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 250600). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z
AND 261500Z.//

[P.K.]

30kts, 1004hPa.

WARNING AND SUMMARY 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 980 HPA
AT 44N 167E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 44N 167E TO 43N 170E 40N 174E 37N 175E.
COLD FRONT FROM 44N 167E TO 41N 169E 40N 168E 36N 165E 33N 160E 31N
155E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
400 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 49N 173E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 1004 HPA
AT 30N 139E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WARM FRONT FROM 30N 139E TO 31N 141E 32N 144E.
COLD FRONT FROM 30N 139E TO 27N 139E 25N 136E.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF LOW.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 11.7N 128.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 41N 148E 44N 147E
51N 157E 60N 166E 60N 180E 45N 180E 41N 160E 41N 148E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 47N 156E ESE 20 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 09N 172E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 44N 143E SE 25 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 29N 176E ESE 15 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 37N 175E TO 35N 176E 33N 178E 32N 180E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 11.8N 127.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
FORECAST
24HF 262100UTC 12.8N 126.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT =

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 11.6N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 11.9N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 12.3N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 12.9N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 13.7N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.3N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.2N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.7N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 128.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 18W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 251800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z
AND 262100Z.//

[HURAKAN]

BECOMING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED!!!

[HURAKAN]

T0615 (XANGSANE)
Issued at 00:00 UTC 26 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 11.8N 127.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 120NM

FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 13.0N 126.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
48HF 280000UTC 14.4N 124.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
72HF 290000UTC 16.1N 121.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT

[JonathanBelles]

XANGSANE? said shang-sane?

[HURAKAN]

It's from Laos and means "Elephant."

[JonathanBelles]

yea but how do you say it?

[Aslkahuna]

Forecast to follow the typical Dingalan Bay-Poro Point track so common for storms of this intensity near the Philippines this time of year.

Steve

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 12.0N 127.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 13.5N 124.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
48HF 280600UTC 14.7N 122.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 290600UTC 15.4N 117.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT

[Aslkahuna]

The JMA track would have the storm tracking just south of old Clark AB which s unusual for September. Usually the storms that thread the needle between Manila and Clark occur in May/June and October/November/December and then not very often at that since the preferred track by storms across Luzon is the one I mention above. Will be interesting to see who's right-JMA with the track across Luzon around 15N or JT at 16+N. May sound nit picky but there was a world's worth of difference between the effects of those two tracks at Clark.

Steve

[WindRunner]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0615 XANGSANE (0615)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 12.1N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 120NM

FORECAST
24HF 270900UTC 13.6N 124.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
45HF 280600UTC 14.7N 122.5E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
69HF 290600UTC 15.4N 117.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT

Down another 2hPa, and the JTWC now calls for a typhoon before the first landfall on Luzon.

And HURAKAN, the name is Xangsane.

[Coredesat]

Now a severe tropical storm.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0615 XANGSANE (0615) UPGRADED FROM TS

ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 12.2N 126.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
30KT 120NM

FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 13.5N 123.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
48HF 281200UTC 14.6N 120.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
72HF 291200UTC 15.5N 116.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

26/1433 UTC 12.3N 126.3E T4.0/4.0 XANGSANE -- West Pacific Ocean



Xangsone could become a typhoon in no time.

[HurricaneBill]

Unfortunately, this is the time of year the Philippines tend to get struck by intense storms. What's worse is that they tend to come in pairs. (Examples: 1970, 1998)

I don't know if this occurs in El Nino seasons. Usually the season immediately following an El Nino sees intense typhoons striking in pairs.

However, 2004 saw Muifa, Merbok, Winnie, and Nanmadol hitting in rapid succession.

[HURAKAN]

Xangsane will remain a STS until JMA changes its status to typhoon.

[HURAKAN]

But I'm convinced this is a typhoon!!!