Signs of a HARSH winter approaching???????

[azsnowman]

OK folks....could this be "the" winter? I've observed, along with 5 other hunters up here...the cow elk are NOT in heat (sp). Normally this time of year the Bull elk are gathering their harems and reproducing but the female elk (cows) are not even CLOSE to be being ready to accept them? The cows normally calf in March to late April. Could this be a sign of a HARSH winter and the cows don't want the calves to be born in those months?

[JonathanBelles]

i hope to god we have a very harsh winter!

[azsnowman]

I talked to a Game and Fish Law Enforcement officer at the police dept. today, he said that he too has observed the SAME thing

[Extremeweatherguy]

weird. IMO, there is a good chance this will be "the" winter. I have heard too many strange stories like this and with plenty of early cold fronts, I think things may be coming into play for this to be a cold, stormy one...may be even the worst in the last 10-20 years.

[Lindaloo]

Well, I sure could use "the" winter. We have not had a winter in a long time.

[JonathanBelles]

Well, I sure could use "the" winter. We have not had a winter in a long time.

true have not had a winter in the 3 years ive lived here.

[conestogo_flood]

How about the Great Lakes? We haven't had a good snowstorm since 1999. They used to occur every winter, we've had years lately with no snow until Christmas. Used to be snowing just before Halloween.

[JonathanBelles]

How about the Great Lakes? We haven't had a good snowstorm since 1999. They used to occur every winter, we've had years lately with no snow until Christmas. Used to be snowing just before Halloween.

go to buffalo

[TexasStooge]

For years, I've been hearing rumors about a harsh winter here in the North Texas region, and I have yet to see it take place.

[azsnowman]

For years, I've been hearing rumors about a harsh winter here in the North Texas region, and I have yet to see it take place.

Let's hope so!!

[Jim Cantore]

Last time we had a mild El Nino Winter in 2002-2003, we had a brutal winter.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'd like a harsh winter down here, I've never seen snow before.

[JonathanBelles]

i cant wait for a winter!

[Scorpion]

Actually there are quite a few indications that this will be a warmer than average winter. You can't just go by a gut instinct.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Actually there are quite a few indications that this will be a warmer than average winter. You can't just go by a gut instinct.

what indications?, and what areas of the country? From what I have heard...we are expected to have a weak el nino and a negative NAO. Both of those factors favor cooler than normal weather east of the rockies. There is very little that indicates a warm winter on the way right now for those areas.

BTW: I would NOT base any forecast on long range CPC guidance either (just in case that is what you are doing). They are usually dead wrong at this point, and they don't even really issue forecasts, but more just "probabilities".

[TexasStooge]

There are indications that Texas may get a cold and wet winter when El Nino comes into play this year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

here is a good article about the upcoming winter from the 33/40 weather team in Alabama. Basically, it says if currents trends continue (weak el nino and neg. NAO)...it will be a cold one.

Read it here: http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/post ... r-20062007

Also, here is the key section of the article for those wanting to hear just the main point and don't want to read the entire thing:

*We are statically overdue for a cold winter, and some type of ice storm. Our last major ice storm in Central Alabama was in January 1982, and the last winter that featured zero degree weather was the 1989-1990 season (the worst part of that winter was December 22-25, 1989, when the mercury dropped into the -5 to zero degree range across the northern half of Alabama). Forget the “global warming” hype, it can be very cold here and one year our luck will run out. Going into 2006, we knew we were long overdue for a hot summer, and look what happened.

*The current upper air pattern: There has been a mean upper air trough over the eastern U.S. for the past couple of months, and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been strongly negative since mid-July. If this pattern persists through winter, it would mean frequent shots of cold air.

As you can see from the notes above, there are plenty of conflicting signals for the coming season. If the current El Nino cycle remains weak, I think this winter will be colder than normal and might feature a few good winter storm threats. However, if the El Nino is strong, the winter would most likely feature no super cold air and lots of rain. I think this the key, so lets keep an eye on it.

The El Nino strength and status of the NAO will be the two most important things to watch..

[arizonasooner]

All this week here in Oklahoma, afternoon temps will be in the 90s.

I'd take a little cool weather after my grass seed germinates....